Article

2007-05-17 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Last month, Iran's president announced that the country had begun enriching uranium on an industrial scale, a pronouncement tantamount to declaring that Iran had become a full-fledged nuclear power. Skeptics, however, questioned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's claim, suggesting that he was exaggerating or bluffing, hoping to head off more UN sanctions by portraying Iran's nuclear program as a fait accompli. There was plenty of time, some analysts suggested, to stop Iran from joining the nuclear club. The subtext: There's no need to panic. Let's just keep talking and talking ...

Looks like Ahmadinejad wasn't bluffing.

Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before. Tehran may well have passed the critical point, at which its scientists have mastered the technological feat of keeping thousands of delicate centrifuges spinning at terrific speeds. If so, that means all the assumptions about when Iran might be capable of enriching enough uranium to build a bomb would need to be recalculated. Tehran's ability to build a bomb -- estimated by various intelligence officials to be five to 10 years off -- is likely to be moved up.

Here's the math: International inspectors reportedly found that Iran has about 1,300 centrifuges running. If the Iranians can sustain that progress, their next milestone comes when they've got 3,000 running. At that point, nuclear experts said, Iran would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.

"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich," International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told The New York Times. "From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact."

No, we don't like to hear it. But the sooner that fact is acknowledged, the sooner the Security Council can drop the pretense that the slow ratcheting of sanctions will force the Iranians to freeze their enrichment efforts. Incremental pressure won't budge Iran. The only sanctions with even the faintest hope of stopping the Iranians are also the ones that would require the greatest international cooperation and cause the most economic pain worldwide.

Embargoing Iran's oil exports, for instance, would stagger Iran's already shaky economy. But the embargo would likely spring huge leaks even as pump prices rocketed. The other sensitive Iranian target: gasoline. Iran has huge oil reserves but it lacks sufficient refinery capacity and must import more than a third of its gasoline, mainly from Europe and India. A gas embargo could devastate much of the country's industry, if it were enforced. Such dramatic measures could also backfire, rallying support for the ruling mullahs.

The next UN Security Council deadline for Iran to ignore falls next week. Then come discussions among world powers of new sanctions.

The list of options is narrowing. Here's the key: Any new sanctions must be based on the notion that Ahmadinejad is telling the truth. He's said, over and over again, Iran has no intention of halting its program. Is that negotiable? The only way to find out is to significantly crank up the price that Iran pays for defiance.

The next warning of Tehran's intentions may be the same one delivered by the North Koreans: The eviction of international inspectors. Then, Iran will be free to do what Pyongyang did: Build a bomb and threaten the world.

Posted by ryuge 2007-05-17 09:45|| || Front Page|| [15 views ] Top

#1 Whether he is bluffing or not--take him seriously as if he is not bluffing. Stakes are too high not to.

Posted by JohnQC 2007-05-17 12:18|| 2007-05-17 12:18|| Front Page Top

#2 Here's the math: International inspectors reportedly found that Iran has about 1,300 centrifuges running. If the Iranians can sustain that progress, their next milestone comes when they've got 3,000 running. At that point, nuclear experts said, Iran would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.

The only silver lining here is, as with Islam's usual overreaching of itself, Ahmadinejad simply could not delay startup of the other thousand plus centrifuges until after our next presidential election. Instead he has ramped up production at maximum speed and given Bush the perfect rationale for bombing the crap out of Iran as a farewell gesture when he leaves office.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-05-17 18:18|| 2007-05-17 18:18|| Front Page Top

#3 TOPIX.NET > IRAN NEWS > Dubya has reportedly warned that the USA + Brit will, via the UNO, proceed to the next step and impose harsh sanctions on Iran iff Iran fails to rein in its nuc progs. After Dubya spoke, an Iranian spokeman in response said Iran will proceed wid its 3000 centrifuges installation. PROBLEM > the Iranian spokeman indic that Iran will install its planned 3000 centrifuges while NOT making it clear whether its 1600 [not 1300?]centrifuges already in operation are PART OF THE 3000, OR SEPARATE/EXCLUSIVE FROM THE 3000 i.e. 4,300-4,600 total???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-05-17 22:04|| 2007-05-17 22:04|| Front Page Top

#4 9-11/WOT > WAR FOR ANTI-US OWG-SWO = WAR AGX AMERICA, etc. It doesn't matter to anti-US agendists whether MOUD was "bluffing" or not, as THE BURDEN IS ON THE USA, AND ONLY THE USA, TO PROVE MOUD WAS "BLUFFING" vz TELLING THE TRUTH. WOT > the USA DESERVES TO BE DESTROYED = the USA WANTS/DESIRES TO BE DESTROYED.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-05-17 22:10|| 2007-05-17 22:10|| Front Page Top

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