Article

2006-11-29 Iraq

Saudis threaten to use the oil weapon if the US leaves Iraq

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Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-11-29 13:58|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Had Bush heeded his advice, Iraq would not now be on the brink of full-blown civil war and disintegration.

And Saddam and his boys would have brought an end to sanctions, taken Oil-for-Food public, and be rivaling the Saudis in pumping cash to jihadis .

Posted by Rob Crawford">Rob Crawford 2006-11-29 15:01|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2006-11-29 15:01|| Front Page Top

#2 I still like that crazy idea of allowing Sadam to conquer Saudi Arabia as long as he was nice to the Kurds and kept a lid on the fundamentalists.

This whole article hinges on the questionable comment that Iraq is on the brink of civil war and distintegration. Considering a bunch of the stories that created that impression were invented by an AP stringer I'm not sure the arguements hold water anymore.

Posted by rjschwarz 2006-11-29 15:10|| 2006-11-29 15:10|| Front Page Top

#3 r: This whole article hinges on the questionable comment that Iraq is on the brink of civil war and distintegration.

You may want to actually read the article. It hinges on the indubitable premise that the Democrats want to leave Iraq and were previously able to extract defeat from the jaws of victory in Vietnam. They can do it again in Iraq. The Saudis would much prefer Uncle Sam to stay in Iraq, since this will both protect the Iraqi Sunnis and prevent Iraq from becoming a threat to Saudi Arabia, much as the Allied occupation of Germany kept Germany down as a military power for over 50 years. If Uncle Sam will not attend to some of Saudi Arabia's interests in Iraq, the Saudis will make the best they can of the situation on the ground.

What's the bottom line for Uncle Sam? Can't really say. But the irony is that a departure could actually mean *lower oil prices*, as the Saudis try to lower the boom on the Iranian economy. The Saudis know the Iraqi Shiites are in no position to overrun Saudi Arabia, and that Iran understands Uncle Sam would not stand for an Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia. So the oil weapon isn't an idle threat.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-11-29 15:58|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2006-11-29 15:58|| Front Page Top

#4 ... Iran understands Uncle Sam would not stand for an Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.

With another Carter in the Presidency this would not be a dead cert.

Posted by Excalibur 2006-11-29 16:15|| 2006-11-29 16:15|| Front Page Top

#5 Still, it's an interesting variable in the Democratic equation for defeat.

Posted by Bobby 2006-11-29 17:03|| 2006-11-29 17:03|| Front Page Top

#6 The President took one occasion last Fall to mention the Ayatollah's threat to future generations. The fact that he only said that once - in context of the Bush Doctrine on pre-emptive war - causes me to believe that a move against Iran will be made. Then there is the increase of US troops in the Iraq theater.

An invasion of Iran is unworkable without destruction of their entire government structure. That won't be done in Winter. When Iran falls, so will: Hezbollah, al-Sadrites, Syrian Shiites. Then Sunnis will turn on each other.

Posted by Sneaze Shaiting3550 2006-11-29 19:24|| 2006-11-29 19:24|| Front Page Top

#7 I don't see the Saudi's as capable of significant increases in oil output. If they have threatened the US, it would be with a cutback of oil production, which they are quite capable of doing,and which would hurt the US and world economy to the degree of the cutback. The US population eats and heats with imported oil, and makes turns this oil into its cash income one way or another.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2006-11-29 22:54|| 2006-11-29 22:54|| Front Page Top

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