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2015-08-16 The Grand Turk

PKK co-leader refutes Turkey's casualty claims

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Posted by trailing wife 2015-08-16 00:00|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 Problem for Erdogan's Brownshirts is that they are not facing the old PKK, whcih was a few fanatics with a bit of Russian training. These are leavened with battle hardened troops with leadership that has been in the fight in Syria - and they do have support of the local populace, as well as cross border sanctuary, and terrain that is friendly for guerrilla ops (mountainous and a few urban centers).

This is one Erdogan and his Brownshirts cannot win, despite their psychoses that make them believe they can through "ethnic superiority".

Decades of ethnic repression and racism are going to bring one hell of a high price to Erdogan and his ilk. Turkey will be split. Kurdistan will be liberated. Its only a matter of time and blood.

Posted by OldSpook 2015-08-16 13:33|| 2015-08-16 13:33|| Front Page Top

#2 As for the veracity, Erdogan's troops are inflating casualty counts with "probables" based on estimates like "volume of fire". And they are not clearing, they are fighting and disengaging. This means they are likely as accurate as US counts in Vietnam were - which is to say not accurate at all.

If you're basing your success on body counts, then you are already in a position of losing. Success means pacification, control of the locals, and the ability to operate freely without threat. That takes either overwhelming force (ww2 style), or a heavy but competent footprint which the local perceive as long term, and which is friendly to the locals to convince them they are there to help not harm. See: Iraq, the Surge that ultimately pacified Iraq before we abandoned it - or the Brits cordon and clear in Malay a long time ago.

The turks have none of those - they are simply repressing the locals based on culture/race, continuing the ethnic warfare and genocide as much as they can get away with in this day and age (Armenians know what this is like on a smaller scale early last century).

In other words, maybe double the PKK and there's your proper estimate of Kurd casualties. about 2/3 the PKK estimates is likely the Turk casualty rate. Remember the rebels have nothing to gain my inflating casualties, whereas the Turks need gaudy numbers to indicate they aren't losing. The whole game here is to dress up the threat to buffalo the populace into supporting the regime - and then dress up the results as "we are winning". Either of those fails, Erdogan faces an elector loss - or a bullet in a coup. The o9nly way for the PKK to "lose" is to surrender to a genocide, and that's not going to happen.

Posted by OldSpook 2015-08-16 13:42|| 2015-08-16 13:42|| Front Page Top

Posted by Heriberto Henbane5351 2015-08-16 13:50|| 2015-08-16 13:50|| Front Page Top

#4 Let me be clear about one thing: The PKK are no angels, and factions of the PKK deserve blame for atrocities and have never been brought to full account for their actions. In all honesty the Kurds are better off coming up with a replacement for the PKK, based around Ocalan's "conversion" to peaceful revolution and a grudging acceptance of free markets and abandonment of communism.

That being said, the Turks and their covert (alleged) involvement with ISIS, as well as their "declaration of war on ISIS" which initially consisted of a 30 aircraft raid on Kurdish positions shows the duplicity of the Turks and their true intent of continue ethnic suppression (rather than accommodation) of the Kurdish majority in SE Turkey.

Posted by OldSpook 2015-08-16 14:23|| 2015-08-16 14:23|| Front Page Top

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