Article

2010-06-03 Europe

Turkey Prioritizes Independent Regional Policies in the Middle East and the South Caucasus

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Posted by 3dc 2010-06-03 00:00|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 Erdogan thinks he can maintain an Islamic orientation and still enjoy a modern westernized country and good ties with the west (especially with US).
He is very wrong.
I think if he continues this hardline and the patronizing of the Terror groups in the Gaza Flotilla tricks, he is going to be surprized by the strength of the Israeli response.
The question is what will happen first:
1) Turkish army revolt and taking over
2) An armed skirmish followed by an all out war with Israel.

Israel has made a big mistake by trusting an Islamic snake in the grass with the hope that he could be restrained by the secular generals in the turkish army. We should now disconnect completely from Turkey and refresh all geo-strategic assesments to include Turkey as a mortal enemy to be dealt with in the coming war.
I think the Turkish/Iranian/Syrian unholy alliance is the greatest ever risk to Israel's existance.

I also think that since Turkey may use it's Semi-
Westernized Status and ties with the US to perform an aggressive act against Israel (such as for example sending Turkish warships as escort to the Al-Kaida Flotila) Israel should respond very aggressively to any turkish provocation.
We are going to have to fight this war very soon because the US is not going to Attack Iran untill its too late - so we will have to fight the Iranians (and thus, possibly the Turks) anyhow.
So sooner is better in this case.

Posted by Elder of Zion 2010-06-03 07:45|| 2010-06-03 07:45|| Front Page Top

#2 The US has an easy answer if the Turks go with Iran: arm and support the Kurds. They are the majority in the oil producing areas of Turkey. They also are strong in a sizable portion of Iran.

The Kurds have also been loyal friends to the US, and their controlled areas in Iraq are the most free and open society areas in all of Iraq. Much better off than the Turkish controlled areas where Kurds live and are legally repressed.

Posted by No I am The Other Beldar 2010-06-03 09:09|| 2010-06-03 09:09|| Front Page Top

#3 Before we castigate Erdogan too much, look at Turkey's situation:

1) they will NEVER be allowed into the EU
2) their citizens are disliked throughout Europe
3) the Soviet Union, the threat to the north, is gone
4) Russia is willing to cut deals
5) they see that the US has, and is likely to have, weak leadership
6) their traditional interests are south and east of them
7) Armenia has its plate full and so is no threat to the Turks
8) Iraq is weak, Syria is accommodating, and
9) Iran is, well, interesting right now.

Add to that: the Turks, while Muslim, are cosmopolitan and secular in ways the Arab Muslim world doesn't get.

If you were in Erdogan's shoes, your foreign policy wouldn't be much different.

It makes no sense for Turkey to cozy up to Europe: they've been trying these last few decades and the Euros don't want them.

Therefore, you turn east. The Turks have a long history of dealing with Arabs and Persians. They know how to play that game. And the pickings are better.

Yes, Erdogan is a closet Islamist, though not the same way as bin-Laden or Short Round. He's a Turk first and foremost, and Turkey, rebuffed by the West, has to turn east.

Posted by Steve White 2010-06-03 09:37|| 2010-06-03 09:37|| Front Page Top

#4 The Soviet Union may be gone, but Mother Russia is definitely feeling her oats.

Posted by mojo 2010-06-03 12:00|| 2010-06-03 12:00|| Front Page Top

#5 We and the Euros have nothing to offer Turkey except demands that they support our military efforts. Russia doesn't seriously threaten them, Greece has blown up, and there's now a huge power vacuum to their east. They know that Barry's a clown and that the US is distracted in any case.

They have only upside, and no downside, from opposing us and the Israelis. This is simple power politics in action. THe generals would not behave much differently from Edogan.

Posted by lex 2010-06-03 12:10|| 2010-06-03 12:10|| Front Page Top

#6 Russia doesn't seriously threaten them

Russia and Turkey are natural enemies and have been for hundreds of years. They both consider the Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia their sphere of influence or territory and will return to warring for it.

Posted by ed 2010-06-03 12:47|| 2010-06-03 12:47|| Front Page Top

#7 The Turks are not likely to make a play in the Balkans or try to seize the Crimean peninsula. They certainly want increased trade and investment opportunities across the turkmen "republics" in CEntral Asia, but they've been doing business there for the past two decades with no incidents or major issues with the Russians who, for their part, send thousands of mom-and-pop "shuttle traders" back and forth to Istanbul every day to buy stuff they sell to Russian consumers. Everyone's happy, and the Turkish firms generally stay out of the path of Russia's corrupt and violent metals, mining, oil etc oligarchs.

As to Iran, their interests are largely aligned with Russia's interests: stick a finger in Uncle Sam's face and collect lucrative contracts.

Russia is not top of mind for the Turks.

Posted by lex 2010-06-03 15:18|| 2010-06-03 15:18|| Front Page Top

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