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2009-10-13 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Anonymoose 2009-10-13 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 Faster, please.

Posted by Mike 2009-10-13 06:47|| 2009-10-13 06:47|| Front Page Top

#2 Allah may, but God will not.

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-13 07:11|| 2009-10-13 07:11|| Front Page Top

#3 Who is the likely successor?

Posted by Glenmore 2009-10-13 08:28|| 2009-10-13 08:28|| Front Page Top

#4 Wait and see. These guys tend to die six or seven times. I think Qadaffy had terminal cancer and six months to live in 2002.

Posted by Fred 2009-10-13 08:32|| 2009-10-13 08:32|| Front Page Top

#5 Apparently, Khamenei has outlived expectations because of his longstanding colon cancer.

This also points out the nagging fact that because of a peculiarity of Shiite Islam, homosexuality is seen as meaning oral sex, not anal sex, and between the clerical predilection to sodomy, and the widespread use of intravenous drugs in Iranian society as a whole, the country has a terribly high rate of HIV and AIDS.

And once AIDS sets in, it opens the door to a whole raft of other diseases, from TB to, you guessed it, colon cancer.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-10-13 10:17|| 2009-10-13 10:17|| Front Page Top

#6 who is next?

Let's see.... There is Ali Sistani - already very influencial in Iran, Rafsanjani, Sharoudi?

I do not know where or even if Ahmadinejad falls into bloodline, and he is already ranked by rafsanjani. I doubt Mousavi qualifies either.

In either case, the IRGC (revolutionary Guard) will be pulling some rank, and have influence over the position.

One of the things discussed during the election - and this kind of came from Sistani was to eliminate the position totally to give the counsel more power. (http://en.rian.ru/world/20090622/155318054.html)

It shall be another interesting time in Iran.
Count on Sistani to be lead weather in that position or not.

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-13 13:39|| 2009-10-13 13:39|| Front Page Top

#7 "Precisely because there are no obvious successors to Khamenei, the prospect of the
supreme leadership being replaced by a shura (consultative) council is discussed with
increased frequency. The idea is not new and was considered after Khomeinis death, since
many believed the supreme leadership was a robe designed only for Khomeini. As president,
Khamenei himself once told a Western reporter that no one individual could ever replace
Khomeini as Supreme Leader, predicting instead a council of three or five religious leaders
would have to rule.
Who would be selected to compose the shura council is the key question. Constitutionally
the selection process falls under the jurisdiction of the Assembly of Experts, an 86-cleric karim sadjadpour body headed by Rafsanjani and composed largely of septuagenarian, conservative clerics.
Reformists talk about a triumvirate composed of Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi,
a moderate cleric who served as speaker of the parliament and narrowly lost to Ahmadinejad
in the first round of the June 2005 elections. This would be unacceptable to hardliners, who
would prefer conservatives like AyatollahsMesbah Yazdi, Shahroudi, and Jannati, a member
of the Guardian Council, who are equally unacceptable to moderates.
Aside from the difficulties of reaching a consensus regarding the makeup of the shura
council, the replacement of the Supreme Leader with a shura council is currently impeded
by the Islamic Republics constitution, which states specifically that the Leader be an individual.
But political expediency trumps the constitution in the Islamic Republic; a constitutional
amendment adjusting the requirements for Supreme Leader is precisely what enabled
Khamenei to become Leader.
While the fight for succession is highly unpredictable and could get fierce, in some ways
Khameneis weakness has ironically been the Islamic Republics strength; if his reign has
proven one thing, its that the Islamic Republics stability is not contingent upon having a popular,
charismatic Leader. The predictions frequently made during the Khomeini erathat
the Leaders death would bring about the regimes demiseare no longer made with regards
to Khamenei."

reading khamenei (http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/sadjadpour_iran_final2.pdf)

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-13 13:57|| 2009-10-13 13:57|| Front Page Top

#8 no one individual could ever replace
Khomeini as Supreme Leader, predicting instead a council of three or five religious leaders
would have to rule.

It seems to me the Romans tried that after the murder of Julius Caesar. As I recall, one died quietly, Mark Antony retired briefly to Egypt as a guest of his friend, Queen Cleopatra, and the future Augustus Caesar swept the board. Only, lots of people were killed to accomplish that, some of them innocent bystanders.

Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife 2009-10-13 15:08|| 2009-10-13 15:08|| Front Page Top

23:35 CrazyFool
23:17 Maggie Slalet3910
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23:13 g(r)omgoru
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22:53 JohnQC
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