Article

2008-06-30 India-Pakistan

Three top US agencies involved in Waziristan operations: New Yorker

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Posted by Fred 2008-06-30 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top
File under: al-Qaeda

#1 Just curious and it is off topic but has Seymour Hersch ever got anything even partially right?

Posted by 3dc 2008-06-30 00:24|| 2008-06-30 00:24|| Front Page Top

#2 PAYVAND > IRAQI POLICE OFFICIAL:US BUILDS FOUR NEW BASES [Surveil/Recce?]NEAR IRAQ-IRAN BORDER, as "precaution" in case of US-Iran war.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-06-30 01:50|| 2008-06-30 01:50|| Front Page Top

#3 I would be willing to take an oath that Semour Hersh is mostly used by his sources as a conduit to pass disinformation to a wider public.
And no, he hasn't been correct about much in years. I've slammed him a couple of times on the Daily Brief, here and here.

Posted by Sgt. Mom">Sgt. Mom 2008-06-30 08:09|| http://www.celiahayes.com]">[http://www.celiahayes.com] 2008-06-30 08:09|| Front Page Top

#4 According to Hersh, we should have already attacked Iran about 9 times already.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-06-30 08:21|| 2008-06-30 08:21|| Front Page Top

#5 He forgot Omega 9, the flying Martizie brothers and the agency that is too secret to be named.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2008-06-30 11:57|| 2008-06-30 11:57|| Front Page Top

#6 ...and a "global conspiracy to be named later."

Posted by mojo">mojo 2008-06-30 12:18|| 2008-06-30 12:18|| Front Page Top

#7 ......National Security Agency, the CIA and the Defence Intelligence Agency, who are right in there with the Special Forces and Pakistani intelligence, and theyre dealing with serious bad guys

DIA, CIA, and NSA....? Maybe it's just me, but why do do Larry, Moe, and Curly immediately come to mind?

Posted by Besoeker 2008-06-30 17:06|| 2008-06-30 17:06|| Front Page Top

#8 Step right up and see The Amazing Hersch! Knows all! Sees all! What he doesn't know and see he makes up! Step right up!

Posted by tu3031 2008-06-30 17:10|| 2008-06-30 17:10|| Front Page Top

#9 Greetings.
I used to be the wind.

Posted by Flagg Col. USA 2008-06-30 18:35|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net] 2008-06-30 18:35|| Front Page Top

#10 From Orbat.com

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Pakistan Our update today is 12 hours late as we have been trying to verify details of what's happening in Peshawar with some success, but each answer seems to open more questions.
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Essentially, the Pakistan offensive against insurgents around Peshawar and the Khyber Agency is less an offensive than a warning by the authorities that the insurgents are not to try and attack the city.
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Background: Mangal Khan Afridi heads several thousand fighters of Lakshar-i-Islam. Khyber Agency is one of the seven political divisions of Pakistan's Federally Administered Territorial Areas, which are located in the North West Frontier Province, one of Pakistan's five provinces (Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, Kashmir, Baluchistan). It is in FATA that Islamists have more or less taken over in recent years. This is a direct consequence of Second Afghanistan, but of course, if it had not been for local factors that have nothing to do with the US, anger against the US would not have played out the way it has. Second Afghanistan is a catalyzing event, not the cause of what's happening.
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The FATA Islamists have been steadily advancing into other areas of the NWFP and building organizations and ties with other Islamists in Pakistan's other provinces.
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Their minimum aim has been achieved. This was to create their own governments in the FATA.
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Their second aim is now being pushed, i.e., and expansion into the rest of the NWFP.
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Their third aim is distant from now, i.e., taking over Pakistan. But how distant is one of the ten key questions we are trying to get a handle on. As best as we understand, the pace depends on the US. The US has been squeezing Pakistan for 8 years on maters related to Afghanistan. Pakistani push-back began ~3 years ago, with the Pakistan military reviving/rebuilding insurgent groups to fight in Afghanistan. That these groups should start taking over the border area is natural.
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As nearly as we can tell, if the US begins direct, independent action against insurgents based in the NWFP, it will weaken the civil government and permit a correspondingly rapid rise of the Islamists.
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But please: that this story is happening this particular way and not another has definitely to do with the US, but the underlying factors, as we've said, have nothing to do with the US. Islamization is a worldwide movement: Pakistan was from inception a theocratic state, Islamization began in earnest in the 1970s, and even if the US were not a factor, Islamization would be growing.
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The Pakistan military is behind Lakshar-i-Islam, as it is behind most indigenous Islamic militant groups. The object is to retake Afghanistan, something Pakistan had succeeded in doing by 1996, but then was reduced to zero when the US took over Afghanistan. Again, because this is simply a narrative piecing together many developments in an attempt for coherency, we dont want to get into lengthy discussion about what we mean by Pakistan taking over Afghanistan. Lets get the outline first, and then we can tackle these questions, and reshape the outline to finer detail.
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The object is also to take Indian Kashmir, but that has nothing to do with Peshawar, so we will let it go.
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Please also remember that the current civil government is NOT an independent entity, leave alone the controlling entity, in this new Pakistani military attempt to reshape South Asia. The military is still very much the real power in Pakistan. Moreover, you must not think the civilians and military are banging heads over the new strategy: all Pakistan supports the new strategy. The sole issue when the new government came to power is who was ultimately responsible for national security, and the matter has been resolved: the Pakistan military will remain responsible for national security.
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So please don't waste time on headlines such as this from Washington Post, June 29: "Offensive in Northwest Pakistan May Signal Strategic Shift For Rulers". The media, not just western media, are off on this because they seek the quick, easy, black-white way of defining the narrative, and this means defining it in a western way. Pakistan's official rulers are the civil government, but its real rulers are the military. For now the military has ceded to the civil authority purely civil matters such as the economy. But that does not mean the civilians OPPOSE the military on national security. They would have liked to control the strategy, which is another matter altogether.
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The key question we are grappling with is this. We know the Pakistan Army has accepted Islamization of Pakistan and will not act to block it. A big mistake westerners and even Indians make is you go to visit the Pakistan Army and it is all British flash and crisp and straight-talking and all that, and that unless you make it your point to get the religious views of the persons you are talking with, you will remain unaware that Pakistan's military is very religious. Even then if you are white-skinned (i.e., foreign) they will tell you one thing and if you are brown-skinned they will tell you another.
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The issue is not Islamization, that is settled. The issue is: are the new Taliban groups tools the Army plans to use in its external strategy or are they now a defacto additional arm of the Pakistan military?
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The second issue is: how likely is President Obama to give in to US hardliners and order independent operations inside Pakistan - we aren't talking about the little covert stuff that's been happening for seven years. We feel he is 100% likely because he has no credibility - in his own mind - on national security. JFK was very different, by the way: he brought a huge, huge understanding of diplomacy, history etc. to the job. Remind us to tell you another time.
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We have no doubt President McCain will order stepped up operations not because he cant stand up to the hard liners, but because he is a hardliner.
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Some readers will say "Oh no, editor has derailed again. Send in the wrecker train and get him back on track." Others will say: "There he goes again, arguing a distinction without a difference." How you react depends on your frame of reference
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Most readers will say "Interesting," and then reach for another cold one. Obviously 99.999% of humankind does not spend its time worrying about matters such as the above, they have a real life to lead.
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But whatever your perspective, please be warned: one way or the other, there is trouble brewing in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Indian Kashmir.

Posted by 3dc 2008-06-30 21:07|| 2008-06-30 21:07|| Front Page Top

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