Article

2008-05-21 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Israel says it is holding peace talks with Syria

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by ed 2008-05-21 08:54|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 An Israel - Syrian deal is bad news for the Pals, and also bad news for the March 14 grouping in Lebanon. Likely it would involve a return of the Golan (with some level of demilitarization), a compromise over the disputed area along the Sea of Gallilee (Syria wants a return to the line pre-1967 - conveniently ignoring that in 1948 Syria annexed areas on the Brit mandate side of the international border - Israel wants the international border, but might make some deal to split the difference) in return for recognition, end to the boycott, end to further claims, and an end to Syrian support for Hamas.

This would give Israel a freer hand wrt the Pals and Iran, but would enable the Syrians to focus on Lebanon. Which they will need, when the Iranians turn on them.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-05-21 09:22|| 2008-05-21 09:22|| Front Page Top

#2 LH -

Are you of the opinion that the Iran-Syria alliance is winding down?

if so, is it because

a - of Saudi pressure/bribes
b - declining bribes by Iran
c - Syrian annoyance with Iran's use of Hezb and Hamas
d - Syrian discovery of some Iran agents amongst the Syrian intel service

Posted by mhw 2008-05-21 12:39|| 2008-05-21 12:39|| Front Page Top

#3 I wouldnt say winding down. Simply that its always a temptation to Assad to switch sides, in order to A. Get the Golan back - a HUGE prestige win for him domestically B. To get a freer hand in Lebanon C. To reduce the chance of getting overthrown with western support.

i'm a bit surprised this came out today, in the sense that Syria seems to be "winning" in Lebanon. Maybe they are growing scared of Hezb, which is looking more like an Iranian protege than a syrian one, and are thinking of switching sides in Leb once again.

More likely the talks have been going on for some time, and are a response to the desires I mentioned above, broader frustration with Leb (and with pressure from the west) and perhaps a realization of the changes in Iraq (and recall, "flypaper" has worked to Syria's benefit - if the AQniks stop going to Iraq, some of them are going to make trouble in Syria) It became public JUST NOW presumably at Olmerts initiative, for largely domestic reasons.

The exact nature of Syrian-Iran relations just now, Im not real sure of.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-05-21 12:46|| 2008-05-21 12:46|| Front Page Top

#4 to clarify - i said "when the iranians turn on them"

I meant AFTER a deal with Israel. Assuming Assad cuts a deal to finally get Golan back, the Iranians will THEN be outraged. and they can make trouble for Assad in Lebanon, where it looks like they run Hezb, not Syria. Syria will have to do some nimble dancing to put together a friendly coalition at that point, and will have to focus their resources on that.

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-05-21 12:48|| 2008-05-21 12:48|| Front Page Top

#5 New suspicion of money laundering disclosed against PM Olmert Faster, please!

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-05-21 14:38|| 2008-05-21 14:38|| Front Page Top

23:59 Chinegum McGurque5166
23:52 Whoting Sinatra6662
23:50 GolfBravoUSMC
23:50 Angie Schultz
23:45 Angie Schultz
23:41 Secret Master
23:30 USN,Ret. (from home)
23:23 Paul
22:56 Zhang Fei
22:55 Anonymoose
22:52 trailing wife
22:49 trailing wife
22:48 Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo)
22:44 trailing wife
22:40 trailing wife
22:31 trailing wife
22:21 trailing wife
22:19 3dc
22:15 3dc
22:14 Silentbrick
22:12 Frank G
22:07 Skunky Glins 5***
22:06 Frank G
22:04 jds