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2006-02-03 Home Front: WoT

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Posted by lotp 2006-02-03 09:34|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 that's defeatist. I'm convinced that, some day, we'll be able to establish democracy there.

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-02-03 09:44|| 2006-02-03 09:44|| Front Page Top

#2 Of the 2112 deaths a portion of them are from accidents, auto accidents, aircraft, etc..., making 25% a low number.

Posted by 49 Pan">49 Pan 2006-02-03 10:06|| 2006-02-03 10:06|| Front Page Top

#3 Yes, but your are 89% more likely to smoke crack in Washington D.C. than in Van Buren Missouri. So how does that tweak the curve?

Posted by bigjim-ky 2006-02-03 10:11|| 2006-02-03 10:11|| Front Page Top

#4 There's something wrong with the DC stats; not sure what, but maybe that 80.6/100,000 is the annual rate and not the monthly rate, or maybe it's per million. Even when New Orleans was the leader in that category I don't think we got over a couple of murders a day, or about 8/100,000 per month.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2006-02-03 10:17|| 2006-02-03 10:17|| Front Page Top

#5 In the late 80s, the Royal Navy was sending doctors to GW U's hospital in D.C., to get experience in dealing with 'combat' wounds. For all I know, they still might.

Posted by Pappy 2006-02-03 10:39|| 2006-02-03 10:39|| Front Page Top

#6 Ahhhh ... lotp is on to something here. However, he has missed a salient point: next door Prince George's County has seen a giant growth in homicide -- 72 in 2000, 173 in 2005 (the record-breaking year). What's happening? D.C. criminals and degenerates have moved out of the capital into fertile grounds. But wait. Why hasn't the homicide rate exploded in Montgomery County, also next door to D.C.

Well, I cannot say because it is a truth that cannot be spoken.

See here for a possible explanation. HERE

Posted by The Angry Fliegerabwehrkanonen 2006-02-03 10:46|| http://www.calderonswirbelwind.blogspot.com]">[http://www.calderonswirbelwind.blogspot.com] 2006-02-03 10:46|| Front Page Top

#7 The 2002 Murder rate for Washington, DC: 45.8 (highest in nation). LotP's story gives the firearms death rate (firearms murder, suicide and accidents). In addition, Washington DC has about 550,000 residents, giving an annual death rate from firearms of about 440 people. Last year in Iraq, just over 844 US Service members died, or about 700 due to combat. Using a figure of 160,000 US troops in Iraq gives a violent death rate of 440/100,000 or near 10 times the Washington DC homicide rate.

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 10:46|| 2006-02-03 10:46|| Front Page Top

#8 Pappy, all the services send their doctors to DC, Detroit, Los Angeles or wherever gangs and drugs intersect to get trauma lifesaving experience.

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 10:49|| 2006-02-03 10:49|| Front Page Top

#9 Last year in Iraq, ~~just over~~ 844 US Service members died

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 10:51|| 2006-02-03 10:51|| Front Page Top

#10 Well, I didn't write the piece, but I think that the firearms death rate is a useful fgiure to sue for DC. Unless Ed is prepared to say that he knows how to distinguish combat deaths due only to enemy bullets from deaths in combat which might include riccochets etc., that is the best parallel number we have.

Posted by lotp 2006-02-03 10:55|| 2006-02-03 10:55|| Front Page Top

#11 D.C. Area Slayings Climbed In 2005
Pr. George's Set Record; District at 20-Year Low

By Allison Klein and Del Quentin Wilber
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, January 2, 2006; A01

The Washington region saw a rise in bloodshed in 2005, largely fueled by a spike in slayings in the D.C. suburbs, most dramatically in Prince George's County.

It was a reversal of the trend in the 1980s and 1990s, when the District gained notoriety as the country's "murder capital" during the crack wars of those decades. The District still has the largest share of area killings, with 194 slayings in 2005, close to 2004's total of 198.

Across the region, there were 466 homicides in 2005, compared with 420 in 2004 -- a rise of about 11 percent. About half of those slayings have been solved.

It was the first time the District has recorded fewer than 200 homicides in consecutive years since the mid-1980s. At the same time, the total in Prince George's climbed from 148 to 173, a grim record for the county. The Washington Post's analysis of homicide figures combines statistics from municipal and county police departments within the boundaries of a county.

Nationally, homicides in such large metropolitan counties as Prince George's and Fairfax are increasing, while cities the size of the District are seeing a slight drop, according to the latest preliminary FBI crime data.

In suburban Virginia, killings in Fairfax more than doubled in 2005, from 11 to 24. In 2004, Fairfax -- with a population of more than 1 million -- had the lowest homicide rate in the country among large jurisdictions.

Last year's Fairfax killings did not arise from any new or unusual motives: 17 were committed by people who knew their victims from domestic situations or ongoing feuds, police statistics show.

In Montgomery County, homicides remained about the same, with 19 last year and 18 in 2004.

Washington area counties that have had very small number of homicides saw increases in 2005 as well. Arlington had five and Howard logged four; each had just one in 2004. Southern Maryland was the only part of the suburban region that had a decrease.

In addition to having the highest number of killings, the District also tallied the highest homicide rate in the region: 35 per 100,000 residents. Across the country, cities similar to the District -- with populations of 500,000 to 1 million -- had an average homicide rate of 13.5 per 100,000 in 2004.

Prince George's, with a population of 850,000, had a rate of 20 per 100,000, and Fairfax had a rate of 2 per 100,000.

D.C. Police Chief Charles H. Ramsey and Prince George's Police Chief Melvin C. High expressed frustration with the homicide numbers.

"We are not where we want to be in terms of violent crime," High said. "But we are very focused on it. "

Ramsey said he was disappointed that the city's homicide rate didn't drop more substantially last year, but said he felt police were successful at keeping them below 200. "I was hoping we would have a bigger dent in homicides," Ramsey said. "At the same time, last year represented a 20-year low in murders."

The Washington area had its share of shocking crimes, both deadly and nonfatal, in 2005.

In the District, Donte Manning, 9, was fatally shot as he played outside his Northwest Washington apartment building in March. That same month, D.C. Cabinet member Wanda R. Alston, 45, was stabbed to death inside her home by a neighbor. A 46-year-old woman, Dorine Fostion, was slain by a stray bullet in August as she watched television in her Southeast Washington apartment. Also that month, a mother was charged with beating, suffocating and drowning her 6-year-old son in their Southeast apartment.

In August in Prince George's, three men were sleeping outdoors in Langley Park when someone slashed their throats, killing two of them. Two months later, Yvette Cade, 31, was doused with gasoline and set on fire, allegedly by her husband, at a crowded Clinton T-Mobile store. And in June, Prince George's Sgt. Steven Gaughan, 41, was fatally shot by a man after a routine traffic stop near Laurel.

In Fairfax, Nathan Cheatham, 27, went on a Christmas morning rampage and killed his mother and three other people before shooting himself at a sprawling Great Falls home.

Of Montgomery's 19 slayings, the youngest victim was 15-year-old Rockville High School freshman Kanisha "Missy" Neal, who was stabbed by a girl her age after a football game in September.

Another notable killing happened in October, when Shohreh Seyed-Makki, 54, was found fatally beaten in her Potomac home. Police arrested her 23-year-old son but later dropped the charges. The case is unsolved.

In May, a knife-wielding woman stabbed a shopper at a Nordstrom in a mall and then attacked a second woman on an escalator. Neither attack was fatal.

Gangs' Reach Grows

As happened elsewhere in the country, gangs, especially Mara Salvatrucha, expanded their presence in the Washington area and were linked to several high-profile crimes, including two attacks in August in Montgomery, which left six teens wounded and led to a dozen arrests.

Later that month, 19 alleged MS-13 members were indicted on federal racketeering charges in six killings and four attempted killings in suburban Maryland in 2003. One of the incidents was in Montgomery, the rest in Prince George's.

After two gang-related homicides in Fairfax, county police obtained funds to add four more investigators to their gang unit. They also started more programs to help steer youths away from gangs before they join.

Gang activity has also spread to such lower-crime areas Loudoun and Howard, where police say it continues to be a concern even though violent gang crime is low. In Loudoun, authorities recorded 28 gang-related crimes through June, all but 10 graffiti. In Howard, police documented 57 incidents related to MS-13 and identified 55 MS-13 members who have been involved in criminal activity.

In Prince George's, where there were eight gang-related homicides last year, violence not related to gangs was most pronounced. Overall, violent crime there increased about 13 percent, with robberies, assaults and carjackings up from 2004.

Property crime in Prince George's decreased 3 percent, pushing total crime down by almost one percent.

Most of the homicides were near the dangerous District-Prince George's border, across which criminals have routinely slipped back and forth. Several months ago, city and county police agreed to work together to target border crime.

Prince George's police found little to connect the killings in their county other than the general categories of guns and drugs. The majority of the victims -- 124 -- were black. There was an increase in the number of Hispanics killed, from 19 in 2004 to 26 last year.

The majority of the killings happen after two men argue and one or both pull out guns, police said. In an effort to cut crime, High has hired more officers for the understaffed department, targeted "hot spot" crime areas and upgraded technology.

Ultimately, High said, crime is as much a social problem as a police issue. "As density grows, that creates issues," High said. "It comes down to rage, tremendous human rage."

Outside experts and former police officials have said they believe that crime-prone populations in the District moved to the county in the last decade.

The migration began in the early 1990s as people tried to escape the city's high rate of violence. Others moved because the city knocked down several public housing buildings over the years, and the problems followed them, the experts and former police officials have said.

"When you have gentrification, there is another word that goes along with that: displacement," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and sociology professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York. "People bring their problems with them where they settle."

That also happened in New York in the 1990s, when the city was wrestling with huge crime waves. Officials in Upstate New York, including those in Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, complained of having to deal with displaced criminals, Karmen said.

Ramsey credits better computerized tracking and analysis of crime and more targeted enforcement for helping drive down the District's number of killings in recent years. In 1997, a year before Ramsey became chief, the city recorded 301 killings. Overall city crime dropped about 7 percent last year.

"When you look at what is going on in the region and other cities, for us not to go up is good," Ramsey said. "I see progress."

Despite the overall drop, there have recently been increases in two of the city's most serious crime categories: robberies and killings. The spikes prodded police officials early last month to declare a crime emergency, which suspended portions of the police union contract. Commanders now have greater flexibility in setting officers' schedules to respond to crime spikes. Ramsey said he expects to lift the emergency in coming days because the spate of deadly violence and robberies appears to have ebbed.

Varied Crime Challenges

The only area in the suburban region where homicides dropped was in mostly rural Southern Maryland. In fast-growing Charles County, for example, the number of killings fell from seven to five, the majority related to a domestic issue. At the same time, auto thefts increased by 44 percent, making that and robberies the biggest crime challenge.

In Anne Arundel, where homicides remained about steady from 2004 to 2005, police have been confronting the arrival of the drug methamphetamine. In Annapolis, police say Hispanic immigrants have increasingly been the targets of robberies.

In Frederick, police say the biggest problem is traffic violations.

In Alexandria, police noted an increase this year in robberies, most of which were commercial. The city had its share of crime last year, notably a January knife attack on several elderly patients, allegedly by an employee of the retirement home where they lived; the September stabbing of three police officers in Old Town, allegedly by a T.C. Williams High School honor student; and the shooting of a Washington Wizard player in a carjacking attempt.

Loudoun residents have been facing a theft problem. They "have a tendency to keep their doors open and not lock their cars and leave their purses in their cars or their iPods in their cars," sheriff's spokesman Kraig Troxell said.

And Northern Virginia was home to one of the region's most-followed crimes: the cell phone bandit's bank robberies. On Nov. 4, Candice Martinez, 19, robbed an Ashburn Wachovia bank, the last of four area banks she hit. Video footage released by Loudoun authorities showed Martinez chatting on her cell phone during the heist, leading to her nickname. Martinez and her accomplice, Dave C. Williams, pleaded guilty.

In the Prince William area, including Manassas and Manassas Park, the number of homicides rose from 9 in 2004 to 13 in 2005. Prince William County police would not comment on the crime.

Posted by The Angry Fliegerabwehrkanonen 2006-02-03 11:02|| http://www.calderonswirbelwind.blogspot.com]">[http://www.calderonswirbelwind.blogspot.com] 2006-02-03 11:02|| Front Page Top

#12 LotP, I used the 700 combat death figure to distinguish deaths from accidents and suicides (obviously likely by firearms). I was trying to state that the chances of being killed in combat in Iraq is 10 times as likely to being murdered in Washington DC, or 5.5 times as likely as dying by firearms (from all causes) in DC, not 25% lower as is stated.

Now, if you wanted to break down the DC figures for the 18-35 year old male demographic vs the Iraq servicemen demographic, then you will get something more equal.

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 11:10|| 2006-02-03 11:10|| Front Page Top

#13 There is no reason for ordinary residences and businesses to be in Washington, D.C. This is not to say that they should all be thrown out; but that the government should slowly and methodically buy up properties as they became available, and convert them to parks until such time as they were needed for parking or government buildings.

The concept it to have a national capitol for the federal government, optimized for performance, security and public interaction. By eliminating privately owned properties, the entire city is opened up to greater city efficiency than is possible in the typical city.

For the most part, POVs could be prohibited in much of the city, replaced with all sorts of better transportation means.

Endless problems would be solved, and Washington, D.C. would be restored as the crown jewel of our country.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-02-03 11:35|| 2006-02-03 11:35|| Front Page Top

#14 Ed,
Your last comment brings up something I've been wondering about: Actual combat deaths are approx 100 less than last year. However non-combat deaths almost doubled, causing the overall deaths to remain about the same.
Does anyone have any insite as to why non-combat deaths have gone up?

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2006-02-03 11:44|| 2006-02-03 11:44|| Front Page Top

#15 The statistics are bad.
According to the email, there have been 2112 deaths in 22 months.
Average US soldier population in Iraq was 160,000
2112 / 1.6 = 1320 deaths per 100,000
1320 deaths / 22 months = 60 deaths per MONTH per 100,000

DC has had 188 murders so far this year, 11 months. http://www.safestreetsdc.com/
Population of D.C. is around 550,000 http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0108620.html
188 deaths / 5.5 = 34.2 deaths per 100,000
34.2 deaths / 11 months = 3.1 deaths per MONTH per 100,000

I thought the joke was funny, but reality is what it is.

Posted by Richard A. Ostergard 2006-02-03 12:02|| 2006-02-03 12:02|| Front Page Top

#16 Quagmire!

Posted by Raj 2006-02-03 12:04|| 2006-02-03 12:04|| Front Page Top

#17 Washington D.C. is by far a black majority city and the vast majority of those murders are black on black crimes.

Everyone knows that to the Bush administration and Republicans in general, that the social/economic conditions black americans & the value of black lives doesnt amount to a hill of beans, especially since over 90% of blacks voted against Bush. Look at how Bush responded to the black victims of Hurricane Katrina.

Makes one wonder what those black americans killed in the line of duty in Iraq thought of President Bush's "mission of spreading democracy to the middle east", while neglecting the homefront in such a callous manner.

Posted by Common Sense 2006-02-03 12:11|| 2006-02-03 12:11|| Front Page Top

#18 From:
http://www.cnn.com/interactive/world/0401/chart.iraq.fatalities/content.2004.html
http://www.cnn.com/interactive/world/0401/chart.iraq.fatalities/content.2005.html
I get:
2004 Hostile deaths: 729
2004 Non-Hostile deaths: 140
2005 Hostile deaths: 685
2005 Non-Hostile deaths: 160

So noncombat deaths increased by 20 in 2005. In addition, Jan 2005 shows 51 noncombat deaths, when a helicopter crash killed 31, accounting for all the increase.

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 12:11|| 2006-02-03 12:11|| Front Page Top

#19 Yeah Common Sense. Chances of committing murder are proportional to voting for the Democratic Party. Save a life. Vote Republican.

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 12:16|| 2006-02-03 12:16|| Front Page Top

#20 The life you save may be yours.

Posted by ed 2006-02-03 12:17|| 2006-02-03 12:17|| Front Page Top

#21 Well, look who's back. "Common Sense" today is it?
Could you at least pick one tag and stick with it so you don't look like a total pussy?

Posted by tu3031 2006-02-03 12:21|| 2006-02-03 12:21|| Front Page Top

#22 #17 Washington D.C. is by far a black majority city and the vast majority of those murders are black on black crimes. Everyone knows that to the Bush administration and Republicans in general, that the social/economic conditions black americans & the value of black lives doesnt amount to a hill of beans, especially since over 90% of blacks voted against Bush. Look at how Bush responded to the black victims of Hurricane Katrina.
Makes one wonder what those black americans killed in the line of duty in Iraq thought of President Bush's "mission of spreading democracy to the middle east", while neglecting the homefront in such a callous manner.
Posted by: Common Sense 2006-02-03 12:11

Oh for pheuchs sake! The American (thats American with a capital "A") citizens both Democrat and Republican will be paying for Katrina and the below sea-level, "chocolate city" blundering politicians and welfare whiners for decades to come. Don't blame the President, or socio-econ "I ain't got my 40 acres 'ner my mule,'ner my repreterpations" ...and don't question the patriotism of anyone in uniform. They are volunteers last time I checked. Get a bloody life or move to bloody Libera and be happy.

Posted by Besoeker 2006-02-03 12:25|| 2006-02-03 12:25|| Front Page Top

#23 Common Sense, Did Washington DC and New Orleans have the lowest murder rates in the nation under Clinton? Or did the first 'black President' also disregard the homefront in such a callous manner?

We have a Federal system and mayors are responsible for their cities, and Governors are responsible for their states and the Federal Government is expected to bail them out after they screw things and take the heat? Not likely.

Posted by rjschwarz">rjschwarz 2006-02-03 12:49|| 2006-02-03 12:49|| Front Page Top

#24 ed said: Now, if you wanted to break down the DC figures for the 18-35 year old male demographic vs the Iraq servicemen demographic, then you will get something more equal.

Agree with ed. I'd like to see a chart done for all males 18-30 and compare violent AND accidental deaths in US v/s Iraq. I also suspect that if you used DC stats and only compared deaths of of males 18-30 for accidents and violence in Iraq v/s those in DC - DC would be the winner.

You could also do it nationwide - and then break by city or by rural v/s urban.

Posted by 2b 2006-02-03 14:38|| 2006-02-03 14:38|| Front Page Top

#25 Slightly OT - anyone interested in Detective fiction and Wash DC environs - check out George Pelecanos's books - all are good

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-02-03 15:10|| 2006-02-03 15:10|| Front Page Top

#26 ltop:

Only a Republican would think that black on black murder in D.C. is funny.

Posted by Common Sense 2006-02-03 16:48|| 2006-02-03 16:48|| Front Page Top

#27 do you use the name "common sense" because you are such a Payne?

Posted by 2b 2006-02-03 16:56|| 2006-02-03 16:56|| Front Page Top

#28 no, because Cassini and Left Angle still make people spit....changes the nym, but the song remains the same

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-02-03 17:14|| 2006-02-03 17:14|| Front Page Top

#29 Don't be an ass, Mr. Sense -- nobody thinks anything-on-anything murder is anything but tragic. The question is, are those throwing the deaths in Iraq statistics at the Bush administration putting those numbers in any sort of persective, and clearly they are not. You aren't either, despite the opportunities presented by this discussion.

Posted by trailing wife 2006-02-03 17:58|| 2006-02-03 17:58|| Front Page Top

#30 The MSM are lefties and vote democrat. The blacks in urban areas also are democrats. Yet, the MSM will not run stories about black on black crime.
It's a bullshit cluster the size of Jupiter.

Posted by wxjames 2006-02-03 18:31|| 2006-02-03 18:31|| Front Page Top

#31 RE: #1

Frank, I live a LOT closer than you, and - with all due respect - I'm not sure I can agree with you.

That said, I hope you're right.

Posted by Bobby 2006-02-03 20:31|| 2006-02-03 20:31|| Front Page Top

12:58 CaziFarkus
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23:58 Rafael
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23:51 Hupomoger Clans9827
23:39 Zenster
23:37 ed
23:33 JosephMendiola
23:30 Frank G
23:27 Pappy
23:23 Barbara Skolaut
23:22 Frank G
23:18 trailing wife
23:17 Frank G
23:15 Frank G
23:13 trailing wife
23:12 ed
23:10 ed
23:07 trailing wife
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22:59 trailing wife
22:58 JosephMendiola