Article

2006-01-08 -Short Attention Span Theater-

RegimeChangeIran: Iran has totally between eight to 12 nuclear devices from the Soviet era

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Posted by 3dc 2006-01-08 16:14|| || Front Page|| [7 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The Iran Airstrike Futures on Intrade.com suggest otherwise.

Posted by doc 2006-01-08 16:39|| 2006-01-08 16:39|| Front Page Top

#2 That's because they use money instead of hot air.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-01-08 16:54|| 2006-01-08 16:54|| Front Page Top

#3 When considering what Iran may do, the most important thing is to put yourself in their shoes--to the point of using their misconceptions as axioms.

For example, they intently watched Gulf War I, and work off the assumption that the US would use those means again to attack Iran. That is, an extended air campaign followed by a quick ground invasion.

With this as an axiom, incorrect as it may be, their obvious counter would be to neutralize, by whatever means, US air power in the region. This means our aircraft carrier fleets and our air bases in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The latter they figure can be neutralized with missiles, so their entire strategy is focused on how to attack and neutralize one or two carrier fleets--or just the carriers.

Their ground forces have the option of setting up a defense in depth against the US divisions in Iraq, or to penetrate in the south with intent to bog down US forces in Iraq. In either case, with the same concept--to prevent US ground forces from making significant advances into Iran.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-01-08 16:58|| 2006-01-08 16:58|| Front Page Top

#4 We'll launch Operation Debauchery and send in a division of scantily-clad female soldiers. [but enough about my fantasies]

Posted by Jake-the-Peg 2006-01-08 17:32|| 2006-01-08 17:32|| Front Page Top

#5 If Iran were to undertake a military adventure, then you should look to its northern border, where they have a historical claim to the south of Azerbaijan, an area called the Lenkoran lowlands. It's a narrow strip of territory about a 100 K's long and 40 Ks wide along the shore of the Caspian Sea, and would give Iran control of waters containing very large amounts of oil.

The area is largely beyond the reach of the US military. The only problem is the Russians would be unhappy, but Iran could buy them off with a deal to divide the Caspian sea between them. I believe such a deal was tabled by Iran a while back.

My online novel explores the geopolitics of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards attempt to destabilize the area.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-01-08 17:46|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-01-08 17:46|| Front Page Top

#6 Yes, if any military action is considered we have to decide whether we want to end up with Iran or the smaller Persia.

Posted by Jake-the-Peg 2006-01-08 18:00|| 2006-01-08 18:00|| Front Page Top

#7 Phil_b, how about Azeris having a claim to a large NW chunk of Iran? Then Further south, the Kurds. Then further south, Arabs in Khuzestan. Switch over to east and Pashtu, Balochis would make other larger chunk claims. If someone somehow was able to bring these variablemout into the equation... Oh, yea, most of the folks mentioned above are sunnis, if I am not mistaken.

I think, though, that in the next little while, rods from [almost] outer space may be in order, underscoring the gravity of the situation.

Posted by Sobiesky 2006-01-08 18:07|| 2006-01-08 18:07|| Front Page Top

#8 If they have devices from the soviet era, they have probably not received proper maintenance and thus they are probably radioactive paper weights by now

Posted by mhw 2006-01-08 18:14|| 2006-01-08 18:14|| Front Page Top

#9 Odds are the best they would do is produce a fizzle. The Russians and the Chinese both sold defective equipment in the region. My guess is they are baiting us, looking to be relevant to the west. If they really had them, I would bet the US would have leaked it by now and taken action.

Posted by 49 Pan">49 Pan 2006-01-08 18:46|| 2006-01-08 18:46|| Front Page Top

#10 Sounds like a bullshit smoke-screen to me. If they had nukes they'd be swinging their di*ks around and pushing people around even more than they are.

Posted by Hupuse Claick4724 2006-01-08 18:54|| 2006-01-08 18:54|| Front Page Top

#11 Sobiesky, the Azerbaijanis have no capacity to attack Iran. Their military lost badly to Armenian irregulars. Iran could take control of the Lenkoran lowlands in a few days which BTW has a large Farsi speaking population, probably a majority in the southern part.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-01-08 19:09|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-01-08 19:09|| Front Page Top

#12 Sobiesky, surely the rods from God would rather be pointing to the gravity of the situation? ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2006-01-08 20:18|| 2006-01-08 20:18|| Front Page Top

#13 I'd think anyone seeking help in repulsing Iranian agression would find a sympathetic ear in the White House and Pentagon, and a basing agreement under their raised pen by the next morning

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-01-08 20:25|| 2006-01-08 20:25|| Front Page Top

13:52 Muhammad Screwed My Pig Allah
12:38 Muhammad Screwed My Pig Allah
23:48 Bomb-a-rama
23:42 Snuns Thromp1484
23:29 Snuns Thromp1484
23:22 Snuns Thromp1484
23:21 phil_b
22:40 Spoter Unatle4689
22:34 Inspector Clueso
22:32 Jackal
22:22 phil_b
22:17 C-Low
21:56 Frank G
21:55 ed
21:14 Bobby
21:02 trailing wife
20:51 trailing wife
20:44 Nimble Spemble
20:37 trailing wife
20:34 trailing wife
20:30 Darrell
20:28 Frank G
20:27 49 Pan
20:25 Frank G