Article

2005-12-02 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Israel Will Not Accept Iran Nuclear Weapons, Says Ariel Sharon

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2005-12-02 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Since the MSM itself has reported on Iran's dev of the dual-use SHIHAB series of BM's, methinks what old war lion Sharon is trying hard NOT to say is that we have weeks, NOT MONTHS OR YEARS, before an Israeli-Iran incident of regional or geopol consequences occurs.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2005-12-02 00:36|| 2005-12-02 00:36|| Front Page Top

#2 Some people don't know then to retire.

Posted by gromgoru 2005-12-02 00:59|| 2005-12-02 00:59|| Front Page Top

#3 Jews faced extinction once, my money is on them not doing it twice regardless of what anyone be it the Euro's, or the UN with their latent anti-semitism thinks.
Bombs away Ariel, the world will be a better place.

Posted by JerseyMike 2005-12-02 08:34|| 2005-12-02 08:34|| Front Page Top

#4 They don't have the capability. Only the US has, and we will sit paralyzed as the Iranians mate nuke warheads on their missiles, planes, subs, and ships. Get your kids prepared for a VERY dangerous world.

Posted by ed 2005-12-02 08:57|| 2005-12-02 08:57|| Front Page Top

#5 At 15:55 on 07 June 1981, the first F-15 and F-16's roared off the runway from Etzion Air Force Base in the south. Israeli air force planes flew over Jordanian, Saudi, and Iraqi airspace After a tense but uneventful low-level navigation route, the fighters reached their target. They popped up at 17:35 and quickly identified the dome gleaming in the late afternoon sunlight. Iraqi defenses were caught by surprise and opened fire too late. In one minute and twenty seconds, the French built Osiraq reactor lay in ruins. The international outcry (pissing and moaning) lasted about a week. That was 25 years ago. The IDF still has the technology.

Posted by Besoeker 2005-12-02 09:41|| 2005-12-02 09:41|| Front Page Top

#6 methinks what old war lion Sharon is trying hard NOT to say is that we have weeks, NOT MONTHS OR YEARS, before an Israeli-Iran incident of regional or geopol consequences occurs.

Just a few days ago DEBKA and the Jerusalem Post cited the Israeli Chief of Staff, a LtGen, as saying the Iranian leaders are not rational and that their possession would be a threat to Israel's existence. Another leader recently said we have until March before Iran has nuclear capabilities IIRC - can't find the reference at the moment and am pressed for time. So a few months, but not many.

Posted by lotp 2005-12-02 09:49|| 2005-12-02 09:49|| Front Page Top

#7 1. F-16s and F-15s don't have the range to strike Iran. They won't be landing in Iraq to refuel. Iraqis, Saudis and Jordanians are still muslim.

2. We don't know the number or location of all the facilities. Most of them are underground in miles long tunnels, dug by subway tunneling machines bought for just this purpose.

3. Even if all the locations were known, it is doubtful bombs could penetrate deep enough to destroy the sites.

An Israeli attack will be ineffectual and would be a godsend to the mullahs. I think the Israelis are trying to goad the US administration to attack, but it won't happen in this political climate.

Posted by ed 2005-12-02 10:19|| 2005-12-02 10:19|| Front Page Top

#8 Can't run a weapons program without electricity. Destroy every single generator in the country and leave them in the dark, permanently.

Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats 2005-12-02 10:53|| 2005-12-02 10:53|| Front Page Top

#9 Should the Israelis attack, I don't think it will be via aircraft. The logistics make it very difficult. There's also the problem of asking US forces in Iraq to not look at what they'll see on their radar screens. The Moose-limbs won't buy an American denial of, "we didn't see a thing."

I suspect, if it is done, it will be done with cruise missiles launched from Israeli Dolphin-class submarines in the Arabian Sea. We know they're there but we won't know before-hand what they're going to do. The cruise missiles can hit a number of critical targets; they won't destroy the Iranian nuke program but they'll slow it dramatically for a while. Is that worth the risks of 1) world condemnation and 2) a guarantee from Iran that if and when they can strike back, they will?

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2005-12-02 11:20|| 2005-12-02 11:20|| Front Page Top

#10 I'll bet a Guinness and some chips at Irelands Four Courts that it will take place after normal duty hours, on or just before Mawlid al-Nabi (Muhammad's Birthday) April 11, 2006. Any takers?

Posted by Besoeker 2005-12-02 11:28|| 2005-12-02 11:28|| Front Page Top

#11 Sure Besoeker. I take the negative side of the bet. Send me an estimate. But sure to include VAT and tip.

Posted by ed">ed 2005-12-02 11:43|| 2005-12-02 11:43|| Front Page Top

#12 It wasn't so long ago that the U.S. sold Israel a bunch of bunker-busters. And how effective would the bomb development effort be, if the scientists are trapped in their tunnels a mile underground?

Posted by trailing wife 2005-12-02 11:46|| 2005-12-02 11:46|| Front Page Top

#13 Be happy to Ed, you're a gentleman and a mate of the first order. Sould not come to more than a fiver, or R50 whichever your loc.

Posted by Besoeker 2005-12-02 11:53|| 2005-12-02 11:53|| Front Page Top

#14 A 2 ton bunker buster will penetrate a somewhat over 100 feet of earth. But think of tunnels as deep as the Russian subway system which were designed to survive megaton H-bomb blasts.

Let's take a small example. Say a 1 km long tunnel exists under Tehran and we sorta even know the route. Which of the thousands of buildings would you bomb in hopes to destroy the exits? Even if you were sucessful, would it even take rescuers 72 hours to dig past the blast damage?

Posted by ed 2005-12-02 12:01|| 2005-12-02 12:01|| Front Page Top

#15 OK. I'm in the US so lets say $10. If I'm wrong, I will send an International money order. I don't think I have but 2 or 3 Pounds in the house, and I think all the Deutsch Marks I have left over are now worthless. Are you in Ireland and do they use English Pounds or Euros (or that fake stuff each bank issues)? What's an R50? South African Rand?

Posted by ed 2005-12-02 12:09|| 2005-12-02 12:09|| Front Page Top

#16 Dr. Steve, I agree on the delivery system but not the effect.

1) World condemnation? It could get worse for Israel at the UN? On the contrary, I wouldn't be surprised if the US and perhaps even Euro (though I don't offer to bet, only to not be surprised) reaction is "When you threaten to wipe a country off the map, you've got to expect some response. Perhaps it's time for some jaw jaw?"

2) Probability of an Iranian attack is currently pretty close to 1 once they have nukes and delivery systems. Do you really think Israel will face a higher probability of attack after a pre-emptive strike? In fact a strike could, in addition to its immediate physical damage, introduce a modicum of fear and respect into the Iranian Mullocracy. An especially nice touch would be targeting one of Ahandjob's unoccupied houses. The MMs were all good at sending the cannon fodder off to be ground up by Saddam. But they might have a different attitude after they see that the Israelis can reach out and touch them personally. Together with the ABM testing Iran would get the message that Israel may not be able to stop once and for all development of nukes by Iran, but they can make it far from certain that an Iranian attack would be successful nor that Iran would escape a serious counter attack. It could establish the equilibrium of MAD in the ME.

Iran under Ahandjob is becoming as clearly wacko and irrational as Norkland under Kimmie. Israel will wait till the moment when it is clear Iran has pretty well isolated itself and then attack. This mitigates the world condemnation considerably.

It is hard for me to see the downside to Israel from a successful attack.

Posted by Angoluting Phomoter5797 2005-12-02 12:12|| 2005-12-02 12:12|| Front Page Top

#17 Darn it, ed, you're going to make me acknowledge the superiority of experience & knowledge to ignorance & hope! All right then, smarty-pants, how can the Israelis stop Iran? ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2005-12-02 12:25|| 2005-12-02 12:25|| Front Page Top

#18 TW, Israel can't. Nuclear weapons are popular with all classes of Iranians. Sometimes all the options suck and sometimes the odds overwhelm you. Sometimes nations and people die and survivors are scattered. The only way to be assured of stopping the program is to invade and occupy Iran for a very long time, not something Israel can even fantasize about or the US is united to do. Well, Israel can nuke the crap out of Iran before the mullahs, as they have said they will do, do it to them. But that is out of the Israeli bounds of morality. So I think Israel, the US and much of the unoccupied west will eventually end up getting nuked.

As for conventional strikes, the mullahs would welcome it as an opportunity to unite all the muslims to grind down the jews.

As for revolution, I hold out little hope. The mullahs control 125,000 Revolutionary Guards, Palestinians to thump student troublemakers, and are building up to 2 million basij to guard their corner of paradise. That's not a force that students or the middle class are going to overwhelm. And unlike the Shah and the army, the mullahs will use their guards and thugs.

Posted by ed 2005-12-02 13:01|| 2005-12-02 13:01|| Front Page Top

#19 B - You're on if you could find it in your heart to multiply the drink by a factor of five, throw in a cadbury bar (fruit and nuts) for my boy, and a nice plate of rashers (not that danish or polish stuff mind you) or "lammie" with new potatoes and brown bread with butter. I'm of the mind they will have to do it soon enough though 4/06 is a bit early.

Posted by MunkarKat 2005-12-02 13:14|| 2005-12-02 13:14|| Front Page Top

#20 cruise missiles launched from Israeli Dolphin-class submarines in the Arabian Sea

Too few, 16? Conventional warhead too small. But, maybe, just maybe an air launched version of Popeye turbo, if enough could have been built, I doubt it.

Posted by Shipman 2005-12-02 13:49|| 2005-12-02 13:49|| Front Page Top

#21 They don't need to be launched from a submarine. some useless oil tanker could be fitted with any number of tubes for one time use with the crew evacuated by sub then sunk by same sub. The Israelis are very resourceful and I am sure they have come up with a lot more creative solutions to the problems they have with in the box conventional Americans' solutions. I can't wait to see which one they select.

Posted by Angoluting Phomoter5797 2005-12-02 14:15|| 2005-12-02 14:15|| Front Page Top

#22 It's one thing for a US Prez like Clinton to make empty threats against nations and groups that can't do much more than harass us (9/11 being their worst/best). It's quite another for Israel to consistently make these statements against a nation that will soon have the capability to wipe them out or nearly so. For Israel to be seen as a paper tiger in the ME would be foolhardy to the point of being suicidal.

Posted by xbalanke 2005-12-02 14:43|| 2005-12-02 14:43|| Front Page Top

#23 The oil tanker with cruise missiles idea is interesting. I don't think 'outside the box' on these things very well, so that one would never have occurred to me. I'm sure the Israelis have some very creative people thinking about how to pop the Iranians.

But as noted, the political risks of doing an incomplete job are very high. And the risk of doing an incomplete job itself is very high. The Israelis could find themselves in the situation of having stung the Iranians but not put them down. That is going to be a problem for them.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2005-12-02 15:27|| 2005-12-02 15:27|| Front Page Top

#24 Israel can't do more than sting unless it wants to try a full first strike; highly unlikely. But it can:

set back Iranian development efforts by n years where n<3 must be considered a disappointment and n>10 a huge success.

build up the credibility of Israel's ability to strike Iran in response to an Iranian first strike

attain some level of strategic standoff with Iran not unlike the Cold War.

To use a regrettable phrase, the solution to Israel's problem is political, not military. Iran is going to get nukes some day. What is important to Israel is that the Iranian government in power thereafter not be inclined to use them to wipe Israel off the map. The big problem is this is an Iranian decision. The challenge is to find a way to stave off nuke development until this government arrives and to do so in a manner that hastens rather than retards that arrival.

Posted by Angoluting Phomoter5797 2005-12-02 15:50|| 2005-12-02 15:50|| Front Page Top

#25 How about flying thru Turkish airspace? They have been doing allot lately together.

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2005-12-02 17:06|| 2005-12-02 17:06|| Front Page Top

#26 That's a pretty long detour, aerial refueling required. That's why I expect something from the sea or special ops. It's also why I would expect Israel to try to become good buddies with the iraqis as soon as they can, my enemy's enemy...

Posted by Angoluting Phomoter5797 2005-12-02 17:20|| 2005-12-02 17:20|| Front Page Top

#27 Tigerhawk has an interesting take on this topic.

Posted by xbalanke 2005-12-02 17:31|| 2005-12-02 17:31|| Front Page Top

#28 Interesting take by TigerHawk. Yes, there are a number of ways to handle this, and an airstrike/cruise missile strike isn't the only one.

Watch out -- oh dang, another key Iranian nuclear scientist slipped on a bar of soap. One could say that it's happening a lot lately, but unfortunately nobody knows a thing about it.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2005-12-02 17:39|| 2005-12-02 17:39|| Front Page Top

#29 Interesting comment by Phil_b at this post. Somehow, I suspect Israel is pursuing all of them and leaking the falf they won't use to psyche out the Persians.

Posted by Angoluting Phomoter5797 2005-12-02 17:42|| 2005-12-02 17:42|| Front Page Top

23:34 CrazyFool
23:16 Old Patriot
23:00 Black Powa!
22:49 DMFD
22:44 AzCat
22:43 Frank G
22:13 jules 2
21:59 2b
21:50 2b
21:35 JosephMendiola
21:32 2b
21:29 Seafarious
21:26 JosephMendiola
21:23 JosephMendiola
21:19 JosephMendiola
21:16 JerseyMike
21:13 3dc
21:07 Frank G
21:03 lotp
21:02 Red Dog
20:54 49 pan
20:44 BangkokBilly
20:20 49 pan
20:18 mjslack