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2005-07-19 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by Laurence of the Rats 2005-07-19 10:06|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 ..couldn't help but wonder if the high price of oil was connected in some fashion.

I sure hope so.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2005-07-19 10:36|| 2005-07-19 10:36|| Front Page Top

#2 LR: Lack of power production capacity most likely, but when I saw this and couldn't help but wonder if the high price of oil was connected in some fashion.

Massive growth in power demand is more likely. FDI in China last year was $61B. In an economy where the nominal GDP is just over $1T, that's a pretty big number. Until the Chinese economy starts stagnating or the Chinese government stops subsidizing power bills, these blackouts are going to continue.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 10:43|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 10:43|| Front Page Top

#3 I wondered where former Governor Gray Davis went to.

Posted by Joluck Jinemble9207 2005-07-19 10:46|| 2005-07-19 10:46|| Front Page Top

#4 Serious lack of capacity, to begin with. China has been the number one consumer of copper in the world for a couple of years. Last summer was called the worst, until this summer, that is.

The high oil prices are also taking their toll. Remember that consumer energy costs are still subsidized, though that has been changing just a little. Energy companies are discovering that full capacity means operating at a loss.

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2005-07-19 11:06|| http://blog.simmins.org]">[http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-07-19 11:06|| Front Page Top

#5 ...couldn't help but wonder if the high price of oil was connected in some fashion.

More likely, the high price of Communism is to blame.

Posted by Chris W.">Chris W. 2005-07-19 11:12|| 2005-07-19 11:12|| Front Page Top

#6 CS: Serious lack of capacity, to begin with. ... Energy companies are discovering that full capacity means operating at a loss.

The capacity is growing only at the rate necessary to stay profitable, given the subsidies. That's not the rate required to keep up with China's massive increases in demand.

Crash projects always cost more money - and it's crash projects that are required to keep China's homes and factory humming without interruption. Would Chinese consumers prefer higher prices to avoid the occasional blackout? They don't really have that choice right now - the government has decided that power will be priced at at so many yuan per kWh and power generation capacity will increase at so many MW per year.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 11:16|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 11:16|| Front Page Top

#7 CW: More likely, the high price of Communism is to blame.

I would argue that China is a capitalist dictatorship.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 11:17|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 11:17|| Front Page Top

#8 I would argue that China is a capitalist dictatorship.

In a convoluted way, you have a point. Since the Hong Kong turnover, Chinese leadership has been deluged with the power of Capitalism and have not stifled it as much as the hard-line Commies of yesteryear. They seem to understand that it makes them a lot more money than Communism, and I think it will lead to a wholesale renunciation of Communism within our lifetime.

My 2 cents.

Posted by Chris W.">Chris W. 2005-07-19 11:21|| 2005-07-19 11:21|| Front Page Top

#9 3 gorges dam went online, but Alaska Paul already pointed out the silty water exiting = very short impeller life...weakness in China's fwd growth is trying to go too fast on the cheap. Watch whole grids fail

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-07-19 11:26|| 2005-07-19 11:26|| Front Page Top

#10 Watch whole grids fail

Like all overweight bureaucracies, particularly in "People's Republics" nothing will happen until... President Hu has a problem...

"What the F**K happen to my American Idol. Heads will roll!"

Posted by BigEd 2005-07-19 11:34|| 2005-07-19 11:34|| Front Page Top

#11 Gray Davis did NOT GO to China. He is still in the US. He simply copied their methods. May they profit from his example. (Be on the look out for an increase in vehicle registration fees.)

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-07-19 12:21|| 2005-07-19 12:21|| Front Page Top

#12 But the BBC told me Iraq had the worst power problems

Posted by Shep UK 2005-07-19 13:07|| 2005-07-19 13:07|| Front Page Top

#13 China has been the number one consumer of copper in the world for a couple of years.

Interesting... I imagine India will really compete with them for copper at some point if their growth broadens enough to actually built towards a full infrastructure.

Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats 2005-07-19 13:14|| http://www.punictreachery.com/]">[http://www.punictreachery.com/] 2005-07-19 13:14|| Front Page Top

#14 LR: Interesting... I imagine India will really compete with them for copper at some point if their growth broadens enough to actually built towards a full infrastructure.

A big chunk of it is re-exported as finished goods - electronics, cookware, et al. As long as India continues to stick it to foreign investors, its manufacturing sector will continue to be minuscule.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 13:35|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 13:35|| Front Page Top

#15 A weeklong power shutdown?

Hope for their sakes (or should I even care?) their weather isn't hovering in the upper 90's days and mid-70's nights, like ours in central Virginia is, & due to hit 100 first of next week.

(For our non-American Ranters, that's Fahrenheit. No, I can't convert that to Celsius - too lazy. ;-p]

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2005-07-19 14:39|| 2005-07-19 14:39|| Front Page Top

#16 BS: A weeklong power shutdown?

For businesses. I guess these are furloughs by another name.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 15:59|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 15:59|| Front Page Top

#17 BS: Hope for their sakes (or should I even care?) their weather isn't hovering in the upper 90's days and mid-70's nights, like ours in central Virginia is, & due to hit 100 first of next week.

Depends on where you're talking about. Summer temperatures in the coastal areas hover around the 90's and generally touch 100, with humidity typically above 60%.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 16:01|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 16:01|| Front Page Top

#18 China uses coal to generate electricity. Increasingly that is imported. Last time I checked, the (internationally traded) price of coal had risen by more than the oil price (as a percentage). A quick check indicates it continues to rise.

Posted by phil_b 2005-07-19 16:11|| 2005-07-19 16:11|| Front Page Top

#19 Shep: But the BBC told me Iraq had the worst power problems

I think Iraq does have worse power problems. I seem to recall reading somewhere that in Iraq, power is free. This creates a major incentive for abuse. Of course, the Iraqis also have a problem with bozos attacking the infrastructure.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-07-19 16:21|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-07-19 16:21|| Front Page Top

#20 They have to import coal? Ouch. That is a really huge bulk commodity. Steel mills were historically sited near coal fields (Pittsburgh, etc.). It was cheaper to ship in everything but coal, then ship the product out, than to ship coal.

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2005-07-19 16:55|| home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2005-07-19 16:55|| Front Page Top

22:26 Frank G
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