Article

2005-02-21 Iraq-Jordan

Hard boyz trying to lay seige to Baghdad, cut off key supplies

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Posted by Dan Darling 2005-02-21 12:47:34 AM|| || Front Page|| [12 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 This is where I am really mad at our government. When you have an insurgency you don't want heirarchial sources of anything (elect, water, fuel) . Rather you want everything as decentralized and anarchial as possible. That way when something is taken out it only effects small numbers of people and places.

The power restoration in Iraq should not have been centralize and distributed power. It should have been a mix of wind and solar that serve the local community. That way if the neighborhood looses its power. Tough. They should have protected it from terrorists and turned them in. Nobody is effected but the few people served by those units.

5 and 10 MW windmills scattered all over next to Iraqi villages would have helped. Places that need central power (like Baghdad itself) could then have resources to protect the infra-structure instead of protecting all the nation's infra-structure. This central way of thinking could be our downfall in Iraq.

Posted by 3dc 2005-02-21 1:27:26 AM|| 2005-02-21 1:27:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 3dc
>Opinion..Lets get Iraqi's to sign the Kyoto treaty too!
and we can tell those rotten Sheikhs to start thinking GREEN and we could get Hollywood to pitch in and pay for all the windmills and get Jane Fonda and Michael-fatty-Moore to install them! and we...

don't mind me. ;)

Posted by anon-smart-ass 2005-02-21 1:47:19 AM|| 2005-02-21 1:47:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 So we should have been building power plants from scratch instead of repairing and upgrading the wires going to the original plants?

Posted by Phil Fraering 2005-02-21 1:47:36 AM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2005-02-21 1:47:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 This is a New York Times story, so salt to taste. The Times of late has been printing stories of the world as it wishes it were rather than as it is. This does howver represent new ground for them. They've moved beyond quagmire to inevitable defeat. As Bugs Bunny used to say, "What a bunch of maroons!"

Posted by RWV 2005-02-21 2:14:28 AM|| 2005-02-21 2:14:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 I didn't comment on the article initially because I didn't want to put "NYT, salt to taste" I have come to accept the NYT will not be happy until the US is destroyed and Western Civilization is a memory. NYT = enemy of the United States.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2005-02-21 2:18:39 AM|| [http://www.slhess.com] 2005-02-21 2:18:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 3dc: This is where I am really mad at our government. When you have an insurgency you don't want heirarchial sources of anything (elect, water, fuel) . Rather you want everything as decentralized and anarchial as possible. That way when something is taken out it only effects small numbers of people and places.

Water doesn't come from too many places. Power is already decentralized via portable backup generators.

This is just another New York Times piece about quagmire in Iraq, just like they had pieces on the brutal Afghan winter way after the opposition had folded. The insurgency is chugging along at levels way below Vietnam, but only time will tell when it finally dies out. I expect we could lose another 1000 men before it's all over.

I had estimated about 3000 dead (max) during the invasion of Iraq. Turns out that bypassing the major enemy units instead of vaporizing them wasn't quite the way to go. Still, 3000 for Iraq vs 58000 for Vietnam seems like a decent comparison, given that the Gulf region is much more vital than Southeast Asia will ever be (until oil ceases to be a major energy feedstock).

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-02-21 2:22:35 AM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-02-21 2:22:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 The post-invasion goal on the domestic side should have been to put the economy on a working basis, providing enough improvements to give the Iraqis a taste of the rewards freedom from tyranny brings. While this did/does require improving the previous situation -- so much of which was being held together by duct tape & baling wire and the sheer stubbornness of the engineers -- not to mention establishing cell phone and computer network infrastructures to enable communications and a real banking system, surely it is the choice of a free and independent Iraq to entirely re-work their entire energy system.

We know from reports coming out of the military -- both official and individual -- that the various units have been engaged in building and supplying schools and local gov't centers, digging wells, making proper roads, repairing bridges, etc, on top of dealing with bad guys and their and Saddam's weapons stashes. I have to think that the systems are actually less vulnerable to the kind of sabotage reported in this article than it was when we invaded... its just that more of the people have become less accustomed to doing without.

I remember the "Where is Rael" blogger (who is now writing for one of the English papers, if I recall correctly), who wrote before the invasion about having electricity for only a random few hours each day, hauling rationed water in plastic jugs, and not being able to afford much beyond the government food ration ... and he was a child of Saddam's privileged class! There were reports during the invasion of villages that hadn't received even jugged water for weeks, so the troops gave away their own supplies.

Posted by trailing wife 2005-02-21 2:52:33 AM|| 2005-02-21 2:52:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 TW...shhh...that's supposed to be a secret. We are supposed to think the soldiers sit around and laugh at "hapless" Down Syndrome suicide bombers and fear the quagmire created by the brilliant masterminds.

Hey 3dc - so you are mad at our government because they didn't provide them with solar power? I guess they should dug everyone their own well too. Funny, I would have blamed the insurgents for being ruthless, callous barbarians, who when not blowing up synagogues are busy attempting to cut off vital services to millions of women and children - but hey, that's just me.

This does however represent new ground for them. They've moved beyond quagmire to inevitable defeat We're doomed, doomed I tell ya!

Posted by 2b 2005-02-21 3:10:31 AM|| 2005-02-21 3:10:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 No. I am mad because even the block size generators require fuel which requires infra-structure to supply it.

Its likly to dusty for solar to really make it but wind could and cheap and if they broke it tough luck.

I don't like the idea of having to protect things like power lines crossing deserts and fields. Even long oil pipes.... Short and sweet and to the point. We don't need to give them a society with industrial sized power supplies. Just enough for stablity. The Iraqis should have been the ones to build protect, and pay for modern industrial sized centralized systems. It could have happened a much later date as such materal is just a magnet to terrorists.

Example: If we put 1 windmill in 1 small village not connected to anything but their well and some lights and told them: "This is all you got... protect it, maintain it or enjoy a dry darkness" we would find an Iraq today that much more stable... (maybe not truely willingly but after a few villages remained dark the lesson would sink in.)

Posted by 3dc 2005-02-21 3:51:57 AM|| 2005-02-21 3:51:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 And as to gifts... we are giving them 88 billion ... just hope that the material in the 88 billion is not all blown up in 5 years...

If stuff is small then divide and conq. works better. For the Shia and Kurds it is not as important but in the Sunni desert areas it makes sense.. Think about it 2b before getting mad and assuming I am a raving eco-nut. I am not. I just want systems that you can tell somebody this is yours. Its all you get for free. It beats the stone age. You know, if any terror types are eying it you can point them out to us. Otherwise, remember to protect what's yours.

Posted by 3dc 2005-02-21 3:58:17 AM|| 2005-02-21 3:58:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 you are right, 3dc...the little brown people will be just fine with a windmill and a well. Civilization is just too complex for them. While we are at it, let's take away their cars and give them ponies.

Posted by 2b 2005-02-21 4:22:17 AM|| 2005-02-21 4:22:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 Ok..3dc - I'm sorry I was rude. I like solar to and I get your point - but there's the perfect world where we can just wish it and there's reality. It's condescending to think that they are little hut villagers from Africa who don't need the same modern conveniences that you, yourself, enjoy.

Posted by 2b 2005-02-21 4:30:22 AM|| 2005-02-21 4:30:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 Seeing as how this is a place to RANT (as opposed to necessarily playing by Marquis of Queensbury rules):

I would propose an infinitely inflatable spectrum of pain to be inflicted upon the Sunni population if Iraq. The more myahem that gets sown, the more the Sunnis suffer. I wouldn't know a Sunni from a Shiite if they both exploded in front of me - but it seems pretty obvious that the disenfranchised former ruling elite are doing their best to ensure that everyone suffers. Well, ramp up the suffering extra harshly at their end, until someone crys "uncle".

Let the Sunnis police their own ranks - its either weed out their own bad apples, or they all go into the trash heap. I wouldn't lose any sleep over their collective absence.

Advocating genocide is not very PC - and I have no active wish to annihilate the Sunnis - but if they can't eliminate their evil cohorts, then they should pay the heaviest price.

I have never seen any hint that the "kinder, gentler approach" gains any ground in the muslim battlegrounds of the world. All it does is bleed our armed forces white, one wound at a time. 'To hell with that.

I'd start by holding a muster of all the former ministries - go dig them all out of whatever holes they are hiding in. If it takes five years to round them up - so be it.

As Martin Luther King once said (something to the effect): "Never give upon a dream on account of how long it will take to bring it to fruition - the time will pass anyway."

Posted by Lone Ranger 2005-02-21 8:05:30 AM|| 2005-02-21 8:05:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 Its likly to dusty for solar to really make it but wind could and cheap and if they broke it tough luck.

Even before they broke it, they'd be stuck with a power supply less reliable than what you're trying to cure.

There are reasons we don't use wind power, and they don't come from a diabolical cabal.

Posted by Robert Crawford 2005-02-21 8:46:01 AM|| [http://www.kloognome.com/] 2005-02-21 8:46:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 I'd like to get back to the topic outlined in the article.

Dismissing the content of this article because it's from the NY times is a bit short-sighted. Sure, it was published mainly to give Bush, our armed forces, and the new government a black eye. Nothing new. However, the writer cites events that can be fact-checked. If none of these events occurred, then fry his ass. Until then, let's just assume its true.

Firstly, kudos should be given to the Iraqui minister who did the research. This is a branch of systems analysis called Operations Research, and is an analysis of ad-hoc and formal systems to determine functionality, strengths, and weak-points. Credit O.R. for the shift in the strategy in fighting the Battle of the Atlantic during WWII, where we were losing lots of convoys to the German U-boats: they shifted the effort away from fighting the convoys to improving counter-submarine efforts, such as fielding Baby Flattops that extended the patrol area to include the zone where the ships were being sunk the most. That area, not coincidentally, overlaid the area where aircraft patrol coverage was lacking due to the limited range of the aircraft. The OR guys used the same techniques of overlaying maps of incidents over other maps of related resources. They figured that priority 1 of the U-boat captains was NOT sinking ships, but survivial. By being more agressive in hunting the subs, they raised the anxiety factor in the minds of the U-boat captains that they ceased attacking, since that would have given their position away to the submarine hunters.

Map overlaying is a technique that harnesses the overwhelming parallel/pattern matching powers of our visual systems.

The article, however, DOES show typical MSM spin: We do this stuff all the time on enemy Command and Control systems, identifying junction points and blowing them away. Ho-hum. Not news when the thugs you support are getting the shaft by the Armed forces you hate. When the Jihadis do it, its NEWS, NEWS, NEWS!

The same experts in the same field can tell you how to design your networks to be redundant, but redundancy==time and money. Trust me, we here in the US have the same problem: Two years ago, I could tell you when and where to plant a bomb in Chicago that could totally bring down the banking system. Lord knows if they ever fixed that problem.

Having outlined how utterly obvious this plan of attack should be, let's consider how it came about. Like I said, this stuff does require some technical education and information. However, I very much doubt that Saddam's ministers are involved. Why? Because this sort of thing requires attention to details, and Arab Ministers and managers are simply too high on the totem pole to bother themselves with details. I'm, sure .com will attest to the reluctance of Saudi management to soil their hands with the details that are at a level that would facilitiate this to carry it off. Hell, did the author really think these ministers carry this sort of info, down to maps of electrical and pipeline layouts, in their heads? Exactly how many American Utility CEOs could sit down and draw out their electrical distribution network from memory? Saddam's minsters were chosen more for their ass-kissing ability than technical competence. Besides, we attacked, and won, so fast, they left behind incriminating documents. They were the types who would work to burn THOSE first, and not have time to TAKE the technical documents.

So, clue #1: Whoever is doing this had to have access to information? Two locations: The first location are obviously the ministry offices: the manac centralization of all Arab governments would dictate that this sort of information be kept as close to the power center as possible: Saddam's ministers wouldn't know how to read the maps, but they'd have enough sense to know that knowledge was power, and seek to control and limit desemination of that knowledge. The OTHER location would be, provided most of the infrastructure was built by foreign contractors and paid for by oil money (very likely if I am not mistaken, .com), would be in the original offices of the contractors. German? French? Russian? Hmm???? Those people would not only have copies, they'd have the expertise to finger the weak points.

Another clue: the timing. WHY NOW, IN RECENT MONTHS? Why not immediately after the initial victory? Maybe it has something to do with the election? Or is this perhaps "revenge of the nerds", where after the first, second, and third wave of hard boyz got killed, Z's desperately turning to his Jihadi nerds, who'd be able to grok this stuff in their sleep, but who would have been relegated to the basement in favor of the more glamorous Warrior caste.

Second possibility: Iran. The syrians don't have the technical know-how to pull this off, but you betcha the Iranians do. I've worked with Iranian students: They're the sharpest knives in the drawer. You have to bet that SOME have sold their souls to the Mullahs: who else would be putting together the Iranian Bomb? If the mullahs are desperate enough, maybe they'd listen to THEIR nerds, who said, "You're trusting us to build you The Bomb. You're running out of options. PUT US INTO THE GAME." Revenge of the Nerds, Iranian style.

The third possiblity is the most chilling: WE DID THIS ANALYSIS OURSELVES. It's the VERY sort of pre-invasion planning we'd do, only we'd use Tomahawks and smart bombs. It has hints of our fingerprints all over it. Is there a mole leaking or selling this stuff?

This may sound like I'm smoking good shit, but I ain't.

Posted by Ptah 2005-02-21 9:10:22 AM|| [http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2005-02-21 9:10:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 Sounds good to me Ptah. Thanks. I'll take door #2.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-02-21 9:19:18 AM|| 2005-02-21 9:19:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 2b, you are a darling. Thank you.

Ptah, whew! I'm going to come back to your post later today when I've had time to think it over for a bit. Lots of meat there, which is why I read you so carefully. Only question: could our clever boys and girls (Old Spook??) be using these developments to trace down the malevolent ones? In all the spy stories I've read, the culprit was eventually pinpointed by who knew the leaked info.... More questions later, when my brain has caught up.

Posted by trailing wife 2005-02-21 10:04:03 AM|| 2005-02-21 10:04:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 trailing wife:
InFlow produces a civilain software package that uses many of the same features that the military tools use to find the bad guys..
INSNA is another vendor.
Many of the tools at CAIDA are transferable to realms like intel analysis.

If you care to note many search out the freindship links and that lets you define a system and take it out. When objects are many and localized its much harder to take it all down. That, was the basis for my windmill argument. Unfortunately it gets into a meme space where there is a idelogical war in the US. Bush and his big financial supporters prefer the big centeralized model as part of their business meme and have a hard time seperating a business meme that is profitable to them from practical warfighting...

Sorry if looking at it from a scientific viewpoint upsets some like 2b. Having spent my life in science, I have learned a few things, one is that what one wants because of what one believes is not always the best way to accomplish something... Same in business. Counter intutitive is many times the way to go.

Posted by 3dc 2005-02-21 10:29:52 AM|| 2005-02-21 10:29:52 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 When objects are many and localized its much harder to take it all down. That, was the basis for my windmill argument.

And the basis of my comment is that wind power is not reliable. You're simply trading failure of transmission lines for failure of the wind to blow. One of those factors is controllable; the other is not.

In business and warfighting, you try to eliminate or reduce the uncontrollable factors. Your idea would instead MULTIPLY them.

Posted by Robert Crawford 2005-02-21 10:44:18 AM|| [http://www.kloognome.com/] 2005-02-21 10:44:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 Forget windmills, the Iraqis are ready for a major turkey+camel gut free-power for the masses non polluting and throw in some plastic power plant. These plants will also spit out at no extra cost paving material, mineral water of the highest quality and Rib-eye steaks.

Buy now! It's listed as Shmo.

Posted by Shipman 2005-02-21 11:18:49 AM|| 2005-02-21 11:18:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 Its more reliable than the couple of hours a week of power under Saddam. They lived with that for decades.

Posted by 3dc 2005-02-21 11:20:21 AM|| 2005-02-21 11:20:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#22 Yikes! Baghdadgrad. I guess this means that hundreds of thousands of American troops are going to be trapped behind enemy lines. Soon, their leather jumpboots are going to start looking real appetizing, as their MRE (Meals Ready to Eat) rations start running low. Well, as far as water goes, I understand the SAS reuses bodily fluids. I'm sure our boys will do what they have to do.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-02-21 12:01:58 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-02-21 12:01:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 I'm all for windmills, unless they're near my ~~wife's~~ mansion in the Vineyard...

Posted by John Forbes Kerry 2005-02-21 12:53:37 PM|| 2005-02-21 12:53:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 As someone who spent a major part of his life picking out primary interdiction points, I can say truthfully that it's NOT THAT HARD. However, I do believe much of the information is coming from outside of Iraq. I'd love to know where the targeting is coming from - it would make a nice glass plain. Unfortunately, there are far too many possibilities. I think .com will gladly tell you it's not coming from the Arab world - they just don't think that way. 9/11 was a good example - great for shock value, but terrible targeting.

The problem with Iraq's infrastructure is that everything is centered on Baghdad, and there's not been enough time to create any redundancy in the system. The 'backup' capability that most American cities have doesn't exist in Iraq, and won't until things are stable for awhile. The terrorists are bound and determined not to let things be stable. While I agree that there is the potential for adding non-petroleum generating power to the power grid in Iraq, the first thing that has to be done is rebuild the grid. It still has major holes. The diversification of generating capacity would help greatly - generate the power near the petroleum source and send it to Baghdad or elsewhere, rather than sending the petroleum to Baghdad and redistribute the power to the rest of the country. The original concept was enacted by the central control authority of the center of power, for the purpose of controlling the population. If everything's in one location, it's easier to control and manipulate. It'll take a generation to overcome that philosophy, but when the next generation manages to understand distributed power, Iraq will be secure, both in its freedom and in its power grid.

Posted by Old Patriot 2005-02-21 2:36:03 PM|| [http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2005-02-21 2:36:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 If the windmills could be used to charge up batteries against power outages, rather than as primary source, that could work nicely. But, rather than build them for the Iraqis, make the plans available and let them build the things themselves. That way they have even more ownership, and the very fact of its existence is a reward for individual/group pro-activity.

3dc, I think most of us who come to Rantburg ongoing prefer to know reality rather than hide in wishful thinking. Disagreements are natural though, in such a strong-minded group, over exactly the best way to go, all the more frustrating sometimes because very few of us can do more than think on the subject and share the results here amongst ourselves. (My father the biochemist and my husband the chemical engineer used to have fascinating -- to me -- arguments that were really expressions of their slightly different world views.) And reality takes so darned long to catch up with our pretty plans for it!

Just to satisfy my nosiness, which particular branch of science has been your home for so long?

Posted by trailing wife 2005-02-21 2:38:39 PM|| 2005-02-21 2:38:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 Personally, I'd listen to LTC Joe Schweitzer. OP, your points are very valuable. This article is way too deterministic. I could just as easily attribute the changes in enemy tactics to:

* Coalition forces making it too hard to attack the major pipelines forcing the enemy to attack smaller branches on the distribution system.

* A geographical constriction of the scope of the Sunni revolt causing more attacks to be focused on Bagdad.

* A breakdown in the C^2 structure of the revolt, making it harder for cells to coordinate attacks on bigger targets.

* More propaganda from crypto-Baathists in the government seeking to blame the Coalition for the already broken power grid. (Almost any Sunni gripe about power can be automatically discounted. Under Saddam, the Sunni areas got power 24/7. The rest of the country got 6 hours a day. Power is now rationed fairly.)

* Zarqawi falling into line with OBL and prohibiting attacks on oil infrastructure by his cells.

Bottom line: more MSM rubbish.

Posted by 11A5S 2005-02-21 3:43:56 PM|| 2005-02-21 3:43:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 Its fairly simple and all of you missed it.

There is only one intelligence service in the area that has the people and capability to do this and is hostile to the US. Its the last Baathist regime in the region:

Syria.

Aided by the escaped high level technocrats (and their considerable amount of looted cash) in the Hussein kleptocracy, they know where to strike. They have been busted for allowing people and equipment to cross from their borders, so they can put men and material on target. And Assad thinks he can get away with it, as he has been since the initial liberation.

Pretty simple: the largest most active intel agency has launched this campaign. We need to squelch it at the source. Simply blow up the HQ for Syia's intel agencies. Truck bomb full of ANFO - a McVeigh special. Navy Seals clandestinely can get that in there.

That should be enough of a warning shot.

If that doesnt work, then start trashing their air defense sites, to lay them bare. And then remind Assad that we can take him out - or that Israel can do whatever they want now and we will look the other way now that our "punitive" raids are over (Thats who he fears more than the US - Israel will go for the throat).

Posted by OldSpook 2005-02-21 3:50:04 PM|| 2005-02-21 3:50:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 3dc---Windmills are neat things, but they are a sophisticated method of extracting energy. For success in any kind of scale larger than an individual, they will take a wind survey and some good engineering. They are large targets that do not handle bullets to gracefully. I have worked with individual systems with batteries and inverters, and my firm and a rural utility are working on putting a couple of 250 kw units out on a job in western Alaska. They will sit on 80 ft towers, 6500 lb. There are also serious dust issues with machinery to address over in Iraq. Windmills may be a good alternative in isolated areas of Iraq away from the big grid and the oil patches. They may be even be a part of a combination of wind/solar/diesel generation sytem. But that needs to be looked upon after the terrorists and saboteurs are all ~~killed~~ convinced of the error of their ways, and everything is Kumbayah.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2005-02-21 4:26:05 PM|| 2005-02-21 4:26:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 Ptah, OP, OS - I just love following your lines of thinking. It's one of the things that makes this site so great, and I hope that someday I'll be able to analyze stuff this way (college isn't great at teaching this kind of thing; I'm working on it on my own time).

Praise aside, I'd have to agree that the conclusion that it's the former ministers is unlikely, at best. We're up against an adaptive enemy, but I suspect he's running out of his best men fast. We might want to also consider, especially if Syria and/or Iran are involved, whether we've got any double-agents running around. As prevalent as Soviet agents were during the Cold War, I would think that Muslim double-agents would be even easier to get, since there's a strong religious angle and a religious justification for deceit when it's being used to trick non-believers (in one of the Qu'ran verses, I think, but I don't remember which one).

This strikes me as a desperate gamble, however. Because they're striking directly at the things that keep the Iraqis alive and society going . . . well, it's almost as though they're admitting that nothing else has worked. They're going to have a tough time passing the blame onto the Americans for this one - and so if they let themselves be caught, they're basically saying they're the enemy not only of the Americans but of the Iraqi people as well, and that isn't going to make many Iraqis happy. And with operationst this sophisticated it's unlikely that it's being run by a couple of jihadis in the desert, even if they're nerdy jihadis. That would imply a level of communication between these groups of thugs that I don't think could be easily maintained with the number of guys getting bumped off every day. No, this is being coordinated somewhere else.

Posted by The Doctor 2005-02-21 4:36:42 PM|| 2005-02-21 4:36:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 AP you working with the Alaska Villages Co-op? Used to do prop ganda for REA/FL.

Posted by Shipman 2005-02-21 4:42:49 PM|| 2005-02-21 4:42:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 AP you working with the Alaska Villages Co-op? Used to do prop ganda for REA/FL.

Posted by Shipman 2005-02-21 4:44:27 PM|| 2005-02-21 4:44:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 trailing wife
A long and twisted trail - EE -> Computer E -> early email and office software -> that great bat light. Last stuff there was complete analysis of cellular infra-structure based on analysis and timing of every signal in the system. We could even tell that something was brewing just before a certain leader when to a certain mount.... even tell you what and when %x individuals certain overseas markets did what and why and which brand and lot of phone.

BTW... the relationship software and CAIDA's are really neat. However, I tried them and didn't find them useful to my needs so we would roll our own. As to terrorist's and their attraction to cellphones... Well, if you are building a bomb you really want to connect it to a new phone with a new number so you don't get any telemarketing calls before you are ready....

Since it's now so regulated in the USA with the don't call reg. it seems that the mil. could pick up a lot of those machines on e-bay for a song....

Posted by 3dc 2005-02-21 7:25:45 PM|| 2005-02-21 7:25:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 Ptah, I'm sorry but recent history precludes me from giving the NYT a presumption of truth until proven false. The Times has approximately the same orientation and validity as Pravda. However, because the topic is interesting and the conflict ongoing, it's worth discussing. My take is that the correct answer is all of the above. I suspect that the Baathists and the Jihadis are taking on the soft targets because they have been so singularly unsuccessful in attacking the hard ones, but that the sources of their information and the plans they are following have many fingerprints on them. I think the real story here is not that they are attacking the infrastructure, but rather that they have had so little success in doing so.

Posted by RWV 2005-02-21 7:29:53 PM|| 2005-02-21 7:29:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 Check out this blog, he has been talking about this for a while. Scroll back several months.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com

Posted by Snolulet Omusing8442 2005-02-21 7:35:59 PM|| 2005-02-21 7:35:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 This article is inflating a tactic into strategic thinking. The islamists and Baathists will attack anything that they think will weaken the new government. They have tried attacking oil exports, with limited success in the north, and dismal failure in the south. Pipelines are attacked because they cover large areas and can be attacked with minimal risk of detection, but is easy to repair. In addition multiple pipeline routes can be laid and burried deeply. Fuel can also be trucked in. If they were serious about besieging Baghdad, they would attack critical nodes like bridges, water purification, electric generation, and sewage pumping plants. Only then can the real mechanisms of a seige: hunger, thirst and disease have any effect. Until then, all they accomplish is to annoy the citizens and increase the reservoir of ill will against Baathists, islamists, and sunnis.

Posted by ed 2005-02-21 7:59:46 PM|| 2005-02-21 7:59:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 Worse and worse, 3dc. You appear to be an engineer rather than a scientist... concerned with constructing real-world robust systems, and fixing those that aren't, rather than a what-makes-the-world-tick researcher. I married one: you folks are dangerous to the untethered dreamers whose dreams are based on moonshine, magic and poetry. ;-)

AP, looks like you killed the windmill idea -- reality intrudes its ugly face!

Lots of stuff to think about -- thanks all. Rantburg U comes through again!!

Posted by trailing wife 2005-02-21 10:09:40 PM|| 2005-02-21 10:09:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#37 Trailing Wife---not trying to knock down windmills. They are great where appropriate. Just trying to prevent the Don Quixote Effect of jousting with them, heh heh.

Shipman---We do quite a bit of work for AVEC. Tank farm design and construction, waste heat recovery. Even helped on the power plant modules for the villages. Send me an email and I will tell ya about it.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2005-02-21 10:19:43 PM|| 2005-02-21 10:19:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#38 same here TW - engineers aren't the bad guys, they just tell you what will work at what cost/benefit. Except when you dick with us, you can count on your water/sewer not working properly ("ohhhhhh sh&t!") and your voltage fluctuating wildly, if at all. Other than that, no probs :-)

have a nice day

Posted by Frank G 2005-02-21 10:22:48 PM|| 2005-02-21 10:22:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#39 Its fairly simple and all of you missed it.

There is only one intelligence service in the area that has the people and capability to do this and is hostile to the US. Its the last Baathist regime in the region:

Syria.

Aided by the escaped high level technocrats (and their considerable amount of looted cash) in the Hussein kleptocracy, they know where to strike. They have been busted for allowing people and equipment to cross from their borders, so they can put men and material on target. And Assad thinks he can get away with it, as he has been since the initial liberation.

Pretty simple: the largest most active intel agency has launched this campaign. We need to squelch it at the source. Simply blow up the HQ for Syia's intel agencies. Truck bomb full of ANFO - a McVeigh special. Navy Seals clandestinely can get that in there.

That should be enough of a warning shot.

If that doesnt work, then start trashing their air defense sites, to lay them bare. And then remind Assad that we can take him out - or that Israel can do whatever they want now and we will look the other way now that our "punitive" raids are over (Thats who he fears more than the US - Israel will go for the throat).

Posted by OldSpook 2005-02-21 3:50:04 PM|| 2005-02-21 3:50:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#40 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by OldSpook 2005-02-21 3:50:04 PM|| 2005-02-21 3:50:04 PM|| Front Page Top

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