Article

2004-10-23 International-UN-NGOs

World unprepared for major flu pandemic, vaccine expert warns

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Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-23 12:43:35 AM|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 So we'll all wear face masks, and wash our hands a lot. With such basic precautions, I don't see the First World nations reaching epidemic conditions.

As for the rest of the world, unfortunately they will suffer as they always have. But then, they wouldn't have been able to afford to vaccinate their citizens anyway. On the other hand, except for those suffering from AIDS or war-induced famine, the world population overall is healthier, therefore more resistant, than ever in the history of the species.

I suspect there will be a quick die-off of the most succeptible as the disease travels around the globe, and then a few clusters of cases, much like the SARS epidemic.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-23 1:31:02 AM|| 2004-10-23 1:31:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 This Mr Clemens, from the IVV in Seoul, is being rather disingenuous.

If he's talking about a flu pandemic, he's referring to something on the scale of the "Spanish Flu" (link1 / link2 / link3 / link4) - and there won't be a single dose of vaccine available - it will have to be custom engineered after it appears. By phreakin' definition to become pandemic it'll be highly virulent, highly contagious and, in a very short timespan, killing many - almost everywhere. It will be something we are unprepared for - because we can't be - there is no way to know precisely what gene-jumping has occurred until it's loose, killing people, recognized and correctly diagnosed, sampled, and a vaccine is reverse-engineered. That takes time, luck, and smarts, not stupid statements.

What a scare-mongering dickhead. Must want some grant money (big surprise).

Posted by .com 2004-10-23 1:48:28 AM|| 2004-10-23 1:48:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 "World Unprepared for Giant Rat of Sumatra, Famous Detective Warns"

Posted by mojo 2004-10-23 2:10:39 AM|| 2004-10-23 2:10:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 The famous Hemlock Stones, I presume, Mojo.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-10-23 2:38:07 AM|| 2004-10-23 2:38:07 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 "Captain Tripps":The Stand.Damned good book.
I'm not a fan of Stephen King,but I like this one.

Posted by raptor 2004-10-23 8:47:12 AM|| 2004-10-23 8:47:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 .com is absolutely right. The odds of being prepared to deal with a pandemic are miniscule. Flu shots are a crapshoot anyway. The white coats get together and GUESS what three of the innumerable strains of flu will be the problem that year and make a blended vaccine to cover them. If they guess right, there is some protection; if, as is likely, they guess wrong, the flu shot is worthless.

Posted by RWV 2004-10-23 12:02:48 PM|| 2004-10-23 12:02:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 "...possibly because the manufacture of vaccines is governed by profit..."
.com is right on the money. It's not about saving lives -- it's about the vaccine research establishment getting more routine government handouts instead of having to justify their existence to the shareholders -- which they probably can't. This is like trying to justify NASA funding on the basis that someday it may save us from an asteroid hit.

Posted by Tom 2004-10-23 12:35:49 PM|| 2004-10-23 12:35:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Read the awesome non-fiction book, The Coming Plague, now 10 yrs old but still spot-on and available used and cheap, now - as low as $6 on amazon - and get the shit scared out of yourself, heh. I read this book when it was brand-new in hardback. Never saw things the same again, afterwards. I had a Singapore Air stew beside me on an overnight Pacific flight for hours reading along - gasping every few minutes and asking - did that really happen? I was so deep into it I didn't even try to hit on her.

When the next influenza bad boy shows up, I'll be one of the canaries - gone in the first wave. You guys get to pick up the pieces.

Posted by .com 2004-10-23 3:11:45 PM|| 2004-10-23 3:11:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 note that the flu vaccine comes from eggs and as noted above, is geared for certain strains. Impossible to stock ahead for a Superflu

Posted by Frank G 2004-10-23 3:18:49 PM|| 2004-10-23 3:18:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 After the strain has been determined, how long is the manufacturing process before the bottles are ready to ship? Anybody know out there?

Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-10-23 3:29:18 PM|| 2004-10-23 3:29:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Long enough that Important People and medical first responders will scarf up all the doses, leaving very little for the general population until the worst is over. I still hold by my prediction above, though. The world is very different now than it was in 1918 (especially since the epidemiologists now seem to believe that the Spanish Flu pandemic actually started in about 1916 in the English army camps -- they kept their food animals penned up not too far from the hospitals. And the men were so very fond of pork, duck and chicken.)

Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-23 9:56:37 PM|| 2004-10-23 9:56:37 PM|| Front Page Top

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