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2004-10-04 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by BigEd 2004-10-04 6:46:40 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 A note about polls:

Weekend polls tend to skew Democrat - they Poll on SUnday Mornings - which means they will miss the Church-goaers, who, as a group, are very solidly pro-Bush.

Secondly, Gallup "normalizes" its results to reflect the percentages of Democrats, Republicans and Independants that were present in the exit polls in 2000, which means it over-represents Democrats, since there has been a move post-9/11 toward the Republican party.

Wait for a midweek poll by a professional firm that doesn fiddle the numbers.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-10-04 10:08:41 AM|| 2004-10-04 10:08:41 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Further, the only votes that directly count toward electing the president are those cast by the Electoral College. This site is a Kerry leaning site that was updated this morning and still shows Bush with 295 ECV (271 required to win). This site is less biased but was only updated yesterday. It shows Bush with 291. So while the poll numbers nationwide may move, if it is in safe states but not battleground states, it doesn't change the result.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-10-04 10:17:39 AM|| 2004-10-04 10:17:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 OS: Secondly, Gallup "normalizes" its results to reflect the percentages of Democrats, Republicans and Independants that were present in the exit polls in 2000, which means it over-represents Democrats, since there has been a move post-9/11 toward the Republican party.

Actually, I believe Gallup is one of the few polling firms that doesn't normalize its numbers to account for this. The Newsweek poll (also over the weekend) that showed the Kerry lead did not normalize its numbers either. Both polls showed a big swing from pre-debate numbers, which were conducted on week days, vs the post-debate numbers, conducted on the weekend after the debate. There was actually a 10% swing in party identification between weekday and weekend polls. In a nutshell, I think the weekend numbers are skewed towards Democrats, whereas the weekday polls cover most everyone.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-10-04 10:41:34 AM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-10-04 10:41:34 AM|| Front Page Top

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