Article

2004-06-09 Iraq-Jordan

Belmont Club Looks at Al Khobar Insider Report and Strategy

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Posted by .com 2004-06-09 04:30|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I know Wretchard is popular here, but I find I diagree with him most often or not. The thrust of this piece is that the USA needs a plan and that presumes a some definable end state.

This is the war metaphor taken to its logical conclusion - what constitutes victory?

While I use the term WoT, I know this is not a war in the conventional sense. There is no defineable end state we can call victory. This is (will be) a protracted battle over who gets to make the future. There are broadly two sides. One side is the many forms of utopianism, whether it be marxist derived socialissm or a sharia ruled world. The other side I'll broadly define as Utilitarian - people who don't know what the future will look like, but are confident we can improve on the present.

Perhaps it was always thus. And this is why Iraq is so important. If it results in a state that is clearly superior than the pre-war one, and continues to improve itself it becomes a powerful advertisement for the 'Utilitarian' approach.

Posted by Phil B 2004-06-09 6:02:23 AM|| 2004-06-09 6:02:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I agree, Phil. This will be a long, drawn-out and ambiguous process. Those of us who know how much is at stake (and who are against the Islamofascist side) will need great perserverance and patience.

I think you're right that we cannot know what the future will/should look like, except for some central principles: we will not tolerate the export of terror, we will not tolerate extending tyranny over peoples in the the name of religion (or any other ideology) and we support the aspirations of people around the world to prosperity, freedom and self-determination.

Beyond that, it is a serious mistake to try to dictate the details too closely. Economic markets are not perfect, but if left unrigged they do a better job than any other mechanism of fostering innovation and prosperity. Ditto for the future of peoples and cultures -- set them free, support them in their transition, and what will emerge will eventually benefit us all.

Posted by rkb 2004-06-09 6:51:37 AM|| 2004-06-09 6:51:37 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I'm curious, do RBers see a "victory" in the WoT including rolling back some or all layers of PC idiocy that we endure now - with more piling up every day?

Examples: It occurs in the UK, but the post about the Schools 'failing' Muslim children. Or the Hamtramck, MI call to prayers on loudspeakers.

The changes being imposed by LLL judges, insane City Councils, etc. are accumulating and are cumulative. Has anyone considered this aspect? Perhaps a mandatory review of any law, ruling or ordinance passed since 9/11/2001 as a starting point? Just an example idea. I think this matters.

Posted by .com 2004-06-09 7:38:11 AM|| 2004-06-09 7:38:11 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 .com:

No idea to any of your questions. It is impossible in a working democratic framework the US operates under if any of what you mention takes place.

However, having said all that,let me say we have two or three more elections over the next six years,which appear to be the total immolation of the left as a political force in American life.

2004 is really not going to be much of a political watershed,in spite of what the meda will try to tell everyone; it is a continuation of a process of deconstructing the the left that began in 1994 and is accelerating. 2004 will be known for its severity in punishing leftists/liberals politically for their views and all the crappy things they said about America in time of war.

In time, this force will eventually drag under Big Media (including Hollywood, and despite his massive pundage, Michael ~~Whore~~ Moore). I think in time the political force will make an old fashion tent revival look like a Runway show at a drag queen festival it will be so profound.

The politicians who see this coming and give it the swath it will utilmately take, will be running the show in the national level in about fifteen years. Those who don't, who knows? Imprisoned for sedition? I dunno.

Posted by badanov 2004-06-09 9:19:02 AM|| [http://www.rkka.org] 2004-06-09 9:19:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 did victory in WW2 include passing national health insurance, or nationalizing the steel industry - probably to some new dealers it did. I would say they were wrong. We in America disagree about many aspects of economic and social policy - thats DEMOCRACY, the very way of life we are defending against Salfists and Baathists. You dont like what your city council does, GO VOTE - ORGANIZE - CHANGE IT!. Now some of us as individuals may see a connection between what we do domestically and what we do in the WOT - some will see a campaign against say, bilingualism as based on the same values they fought for in the WOT. Just as some fought against segregation based on the same values they fought for in WW2. But some will disagree and quotas, and STILL be on the same side in the WOT - just as some southerners were on the other side on segregation, yet fought on THE SAME SIDE in WW2. Disagreeing with liberalism didnt make you a Nazi. Disagreeing with conservatism doesnt make you a terrorist, a jihadi, or a Baathist. Just as disagreeing with the govt of Saudi Arabia doesnt make you a Zionist.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-06-09 9:44:13 AM|| 2004-06-09 9:44:13 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Phil and rkb, well said. Wretchard often provides intelligent commentary -- especially in comparison to the drivel that passes for analysis almost everywhere these days -- but in this case he's over-reached a bit. I think Phil's broad categories are far more reasonable than Wretchard's very narrow and specific metrics for assessing progress in the conflict. Put in very simple terms, there are many ways to skin a cat, and getting the critter skinned is more important than the particular way it's done.

The Wretchard piece represents a very mild example of a pandemic intellectual malady in foreign policy and defense circles that's raged for years. The conceit of perfectionism, the implicit assumption that events in the real world can be scripted in detail, and not just influenced in usually broad fashion, using odds and common sense as guides. The disease is particularly virulent in its retrospective form -- for example, looking back and casually declaring (mostly in demonstrably false ways) that "mistakes" made by the US in Iraq account for the challenges there, as if the task isn't difficult and as if setbacks and innovation aren't the norm.

Wretchard offers the more rare case of the prospective form of the disease -- trying to set unrealistically narrow and specific objectives when in fact the objective must remain broad (Phil's dichotomy of the forces at work) while the tactics and strategy to achieve it must remain flexible and innovative. In defense of Wretchard's exercise, however, it must be noted that it involves a sincere intellectual effort to help crack a problem, and not superficial second-guessing or cheap shots directed at judgement calls made the unavoidable way (under fire, with inadequate information, amidst uncooperative verging-on-idiotic behavior by select foreign players).

Posted by Verlaine 2004-06-09 9:54:16 AM|| 2004-06-09 9:54:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 the principle problem i have with wretchards metrics, is that they are intrinsically secret. They are, for obvious reasons, not things that can be discussed by the admin in public. For all we know the admin IS using them, or some subset of them.

But again, wretchard continues to be sincere and interesting.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-06-09 11:43:33 AM|| 2004-06-09 11:43:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 .com, re your question on accumulating PC idiocy. Nobody loathes PCery more than me, but I don't think that is the root problem.

I used to worry about the problem of accumlating laws a lot. To me it seemed to be a fatal flaw in the whole rule of law system. Over time they accumulate and they become like fine sand in an engine. Eventually it will seize. More laws means more resources dedicated to enforcing laws. I.e. the problem is more and more laws, not what those laws mandate.

An analogy is that in order to achieve modern telecommunications we had to get rid of telephone operators. We face a similar problem with laws and lawyers.

FWIIW, for a while I advocated a finite number of laws. Pass a new law and you had to retire an old one. I believe this was tried somewhere, but I can't recall the place.

Posted by Phil B 2004-06-09 6:19:13 PM|| 2004-06-09 6:19:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Liberalhawk: did victory in WW2 include passing national health insurance, or nationalizing the steel industry - probably to some new dealers it did.

I see where you're coming from, but I think you're partly wrong. I am in the oilfield, and I'm sort-of perturbed at the way it's roughly three years on since the attacks, and we still haven't done anything to increace oil drilling here. Or about how alternate energy research is only "OK" as long as it isn't going to produce results (like the proposed wind farm off of Nantucket).

According to most people I've talked to, it would take about three years from the word "go" to actually produce oil from a large project like in ANWR. But at the moment, a lot of offshore assets are being moved from Alaska to Sakhalin Island.

(Also, figuring out a way to _use_ all the natural gas on the north slope in already-explored areas seems to me to be a no-brainer).

This is less of a "philosophical conservatism" thing than a "we need to get our ass in gear" thing, to me.

Although if you want to bring up a philosophical issue, look at the lack of progress in arming pilots.

(Anyway, I gotta go, I'm late, I'll be back later...)

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-06-09 7:45:19 PM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-06-09 7:45:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 .com - the answer to PC thuggery is perspective. We temporarily had that after 9/11. When someone is actively procuring nuke/chem/bio weapons to kill A LOT OF US, whether there's a cross on a seal of a county that might not exist tomorrow, make's the ACLU and PC pointy-headed fools look mighty small. Not enough of us get that, but it'll come, and on that day Ramona better be at her best cuz she'll not get sympathy from the rest....activist civil rights attorneys will find their real place on the social ladder

Posted by Frank G 2004-06-09 8:07:00 PM|| 2004-06-09 8:07:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Here is something that WORRIES ME

A year later nothing has changed. The site is still online.

And linked to by Arab sites. Hello Nevada?

Posted by True German Ally 2004-06-09 8:21:28 PM|| 2004-06-09 8:21:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Amen, TGA. As a Nevada resident, at least temporarily, I think I'll have a go at emailing these total fucking morons (who work for me) for publicizing such specs. Totally Unnecessary and Unbelievable.

Posted by .com 2004-06-09 8:46:37 PM|| 2004-06-09 8:46:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 That would be great. I mean, I read THIS PAGE and I didn't believe my eyes. This should be classified material.

Posted by True German Ally 2004-06-09 8:58:33 PM|| 2004-06-09 8:58:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Done - both to the idiots that run the site and, following Internet Hagenah's link, the Governor - who I told I would simply vote AGAINST every incumbent on my ballot and that, as the State Chief Exec, I expected him to DO something about it. I think he'll get the message.

Now I'm going to send the link and info to the local Las Vegas newspapers - and mention that Guinn & Co should be summarily fired for such stupidity.

TGA, you rock, bro - plz don't stay away so much! I still have issues with Fischer (I read his speech at the 40th Munich Security Conference!) but you always broaden the discussion and bring a unique perspective. And plz don't let us put you off through our ignorance! You know we love ya!!!

Thx for the info! I'm on the case! Lol!

Posted by .com 2004-06-09 9:14:41 PM|| 2004-06-09 9:14:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Nevada huh, .com? I'll be there next month, especially at the end - a week at Tahoe, along with stops at relatives in Fallon, Fernley, and Carson City

Posted by Frank G 2004-06-09 9:15:16 PM|| 2004-06-09 9:15:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 I may be moving up that way soon, prolly only about 10% chance, but probably heading back to either Del Mar or somewhere in Texas. I'm bored - so not ready to retire - and the work is elsewhere. Not much web app dev going on here - I'm sure less in Reno / CC. And it's hot here and reminds me too much of the shithole - I want GREEN and COOL. Lol!

Posted by .com 2004-06-09 9:39:27 PM|| 2004-06-09 9:39:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 .com, I hope you realize, Texas isn't cool, at least not temperature-wise.

(Although I'm in Louisiana... I've thought of moving to Texas to get out of the heat).

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-06-10 12:17:55 AM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-06-10 12:17:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 Phil - There are a few places, like the Hill Country or around Lake Buchanon (IIRC), that might not be too bad. I've hung out in Texas about 25 yrs, all told. Born in Foat Wuth.

I'd like to go up to the NW, but both Oregon and Washington seem to have a high percentage of stupidity and general looniness. If I knew anyone (any non-idiotarian, that is, heh) in the far NW corner who could advise me, I would prefer that climate. Just South of Vancouver, maybe. I like rain and green and cool - cold, but I don't wanna hafta dodge trigger-happy pot-growers or LLL zipperheads. Sigh. Know anyone up there? :-)

Posted by .com 2004-06-10 12:39:16 AM|| 2004-06-10 12:39:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 Yah, I do know a couple people up there. My email's on my weblog, drop me a line...

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-06-10 9:05:55 AM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-06-10 9:05:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 Thx!

Posted by .com 2004-06-10 9:08:42 AM|| 2004-06-10 9:08:42 AM|| Front Page Top

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