Article

2004-02-26

Iraqi Kurdish group calls for referendum on independence

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred Pruitt 2004-02-26 00:01|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The reality is no arab iraqis will allow JKurds independence WITH Kirkuk and the northern oil fields. And the Turks would go to war over that. Now if the Kurds want independence WITHOUT Kirkuk and the Northern oil fields, many Iraqi arabs (Chalabi for example) would grant them that, although the Turks might still object. I think they are much better off getting their piece of the pie within an Iraqi state - and lets be clear, its very much in the US interest for them to stay in the Iraqi state - they represent the most solidly democratic, capitalist, and secularist interest in Iraq. Taking them out impacts the balance of politics in rump Iraq very negatively.

Posted by liberalhawk 2004-2-26 9:19:12 AM|| 2004-2-26 9:19:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 LH -- good point on "US interests," and I don't see much evidence that Kurdish leaders want full independence. Rather, they want as much autonomy as possible within a federal state. BUT -- do you really think that Turkey would "go to war" over this issue? Turkey may make empty threats, but it would hardly throw everything away over Iraqi Kurdistan. Forget the EU? -- and become an enemy of the US? No way.

Posted by closet neo-con 2004-2-26 12:02:38 PM|| 2004-2-26 12:02:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 They wouldnt declare war on Iraq and the US. Theyd exert heavy pressure on the new Iraqi govt to let them assist in putting down the rebellion. This would be like pushing on an open door, since the new iraqi govt would hardly want to see the Kurds take the oil with them. So the Turks come in nominally on the side of the Iraqi govt against "illegitimate Kurdish rebels" Do you see the US fighting the Turks over this - do you see the EU having problems with it? I dont.

And dont forget theres a large population of ethnic Turks ("Turkmen") in Kirkuk. IF the iraqi govt doesnt invite the Turks in, they can go into Kirkuk as a "humanitarian mission" to stop the purported massacres of Turkmen. Yeah it wont be without diplomatic cost, but it probably doesnt mean losing the EU or becoming a permanent enemy of the US.

Posted by liberalhawk 2004-2-26 3:10:28 PM|| 2004-2-26 3:10:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 There's a real reason I always play Turkey in Risk.

Posted by Shipman 2004-2-26 4:55:44 PM|| 2004-2-26 4:55:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 as Fred said - this is a shot across the Shia's bow - you want the Merkins out and a plebiscite? Guess what? Our end of the country has the majority of the oil...your's has....Shia holy sites...sounds like a fair trade

Posted by Frank G 2004-2-26 8:06:39 PM|| 2004-2-26 8:06:39 PM|| Front Page Top

08:01 gromky
07:06 Shipman
02:06 SON OF TOLUI
02:02 SON OF TOLUI
01:31 SON OF TOLUI
00:28 Polonius
00:06 Lucky
00:05 Tibor
23:40 Steve White
23:20 GK
23:20 Matt
23:20 CrazyFool
23:18 tu3031
22:55 anymouse
22:53 Old Patriot
22:37 tu3031
22:36 Rawsnacks
22:08 True German Ally
22:04 True German Ally
22:00 Anonymous
21:54 Cyber Sarge
21:52 whitecollar redneck
21:51 Denny
21:48 chainhead