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2005-08-26 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by Captain America 2005-08-26 01:15|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 and market more Russian weapons to China, which already has bought Russian warships and aircraft.

Are they anything like those famed Russian GPS jammers? Top notch Russian stuff. Keep the receipt.

Posted by Rafael 2005-08-26 01:31|| 2005-08-26 01:31|| Front Page Top

#2 Chicom-desired hegemony can be summed up in domination of the PACRIM and INDIAN OCEAN nations. China is also buying modern air assets from Russia for her Airborne Infantry and Mech forces. Right now her focii is econ modernization whilst also destabilizing all the pro-Western or neutral nations such as Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and India, etc. espec JAPAN as its main competitor in Asia. Russia, whose current population stands at circa 145M +/-, has trad been Euro-centric - however, despite the fact that both Russia's and China's pop are suffering from serious demographic problems, both of them wouldn't mind iff China suffered a pop drawdown by other than natural means!? China's pop is outstripping the ability of the CPC/CCP, State planning, and Chinese-specific natural endowments/comparative advantages to accom it, and the last thing the Chicoms want is higher popul, even iff due to intensified private wealth, i.e to be another, only LARGER STARVING "NORTH KOREA"!? Unlike Russia, whom still has plenty of land space for current pop levels, China definitely needs lebenstraum!

Posted by JosephMendiola 2005-08-26 02:06|| 2005-08-26 02:06|| Front Page Top

#3 "What do [the Chinese] see as the intended use of that navy?"

My guess is that they finally got around to reading Mahan? Great commerial powers need to protect their lanes of commerce, if there are no other friendly powers to do it for them.

One of the great 'Ifs' of world history was if the Ming Dynasty had continued the explorations started under Admiral Zheng He. If the Chineses had contacted the Europeans first, there would have been little motivation for the Europeans to begin their own exploration and expansion across the globe resulting the world as we know it today. Think that smarts today in Beijing? Playing catch up in the 21st Century because of parochial court politics in the 15th Century.

Posted by Ulase Snimble3984 2005-08-26 07:28|| 2005-08-26 07:28|| Front Page Top

#4 US3984: One of the great 'Ifs' of world history was if the Ming Dynasty had continued the explorations started under Admiral Zheng He. If the Chineses had contacted the Europeans first, there would have been little motivation for the Europeans to begin their own exploration and expansion across the globe resulting the world as we know it today.

That fleet was huge and ruinously expensive. I don't think it was sustainable. The European fleets ventured abroad to escape the punitive tariffs levied by Muslim sovereigns (Ottomans, Safavids, Mughals, etc) on the overland route vis-a-vis the spice trade. The Chinese had no problem getting to the Moluccas, where the spice trade was centered. European expeditions relied on commerce - i.e. purchases of exotic goods abroad for sale back home - to more than pay for themselves - they were essentially self-financing. The Chinese viewed trade as beneath them, meaning that each expedition was little more than an expensive junket to show the flag.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-08-26 07:54|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-08-26 07:54|| Front Page Top

#5 I just love juxtaposing these two quotes from Wikipedia on Mahan:

widely considered the world's foremost theorist of military sea power.

Despite his success in the Navy, his skills in actual command of a ship were not exemplary[1]; and a number of vessels under his command were piloted into both stationary and moving objects.

An example that the tactical and strategic aspects of war aren't always found together?

Posted by DO 2005-08-26 10:47|| 2005-08-26 10:47|| Front Page Top

#6 Ok, back to topic.

"If that navy "is to ensure the free flow of commerce, that would not be surprising," he said, nodding toward the sea lanes in the South China and East China seas through which pass the oil and raw materials that feed China's expanding economy, not to mention its soaring exports."

Wrong! Normally, you would provide naval escorts if cargo ships are in danger of being boarded by pirates. I think the pirates know better than to hijack a cargo ship destined for China.

I think there are two reasons for the expanded navy. One is obvious, a solid naval as well as a ground ability in preparedness to one day annex Taiwan, by force. Although, sophisticated Ageis class is not available to the Chinese, ~~at least until a Democrat is in the WH~~ the Chinese assumption is that sheer numbers can overwhelm the highly advanced US Taiwanese navy.

This, is on its face, is foolish thinking by the Chinese, unless the plan is to block US carriers from Japan & others from helping Taiwan. I did some research and I found out that the Chinese have every intention to block the US carriers one day. This can be accomplished by increasing naval escorts to all China destined ports. But as you can tell by reading the article, the US have counter measures. But, every counter measure poses major problems for the US Navy. The US Navy will have to make a decision. Is Taiwan really worth defending? Yes, but not with all our naval might. I hate to say this but, the reality is that eventually, we will say Taiwan is not worth the tactical risk therefore, no longer a strategic asset. This is what the Chinese is hoping to accomplish with the massive buildup. The Chinese really thinks that they can annex Taiwan without a fight. I believe, in the loooong run, China will be proved correct.

Two, the naval escorts will provide cover for illegal weapons shipments to terrorists countries such as Pakistan and Iran. The naval escorts will provide protection until the illegal shipments reach international waters. Once reaching internationl waters, then if the ship has a Chinese flag, then Internationl Maritime Law states that: the boarding country of origin vessel e.g. US, MUST obtain permission from the boardee country of origin e.g. China. If the boardee country of origin does not give permission, then phone calls are made to the e.g US, government officials until ~~strong arm~~ permission is granted from the boardee country of origin, e.g. China. Once, China has finished the massive naval buildup, then they will more bold to deny the e.g. US, permission to board and search. Here is the dangerous part, the first time China gets away with this, you CANNOT put the genie back in the bottle.

Posted by Poison Reverse 2005-08-26 10:59|| 2005-08-26 10:59|| Front Page Top

#7 I think China is more likely to move into the Stans or even Siberia. I think the Chineese war games are as much about learning the ally/future enemy capabilities as about getting more high tech gear and of course shaking up the tiawaneese at the same time.

Why would the Chineese move on Tiawan a war that will cost them huge in the economy and war with the US will stess chinas weakest areas not to mention the US would very likely win and if nothing else embargo the chineese down even if the chineese suceed they gain not much more than national pride. The US will shift bases to Philipines and renforce Japan to hold the dagger at the china throat. On the other hand the Stans are weak, but with big oil and mineral gains, to far for the US to risk intervention, EU dont care, and Russia is to weak to stop. Siberia is a oil and mineral jackpot that is sparcley populated in a weak russia that after 08' will have a disgruntled populass due to Putin the new pres/dictator for life that wont have the EU or the US to exited about helping out. China will play to thier stong points Army thier weak points Navy and Air Force can probably match the Russian, not to mention the Chineese will be moving short logistics just north while the Russians will have to push far east logistics under constant bombardment from northern chineese bases. The nothern sea passage is seasonal and the current chineese navy is propably capable of embargo of eastern russia.

That would be the smart move for China if they really want empire they need secure oil and mineral resources it will take China decades to be able to dominate or even match the US navy and air force, even then they still will be dependent on other nations to sell the oil and minerals. The US is still good at negotiations and when needed getting nations go along with our way after all china cant protect the sellers from embargo and air assualt by the US. If Siberia or the Stans were taken china could easily build up its military and attack Tiawan without having to build a Navy air force strong enough to break the US naval domination. Not to mention the US when it sees its advantage of the seas going north they will pick up prodoction and a naval arms race will be a hard race for china. China is not stupid they look at history and history says 1st you secure resources.

Posted by C-Low 2005-08-26 13:55|| 2005-08-26 13:55|| Front Page Top

#8 C-Low,

"Why would the Chineese move on Tiawan a war that will cost them huge in the economy and war with the US"

I agree with all the away, from a present point of view and you are assuming that future US Presidents are going to continue the Bush policy. I am talking about 10-20 years from now.

You have to read my post a little bit more carefully. I am saying that with the massive buildup, China could annex Taiwan without a fight. China can't win a Cold War style build up competition with the US, but it can win one against Taiwan. Years down the road, Taiwan will become an expendable asset to the US.

WoT is draining a lot of resources from the US and the Chinese will wait and see 10-20 years if they have to. But, they will make a well coordintated and overwhelming move against Taiwan. When this happens, the US will throw up some "face saving" hissy fit but, the US Congress will not stomach another war and give it up, WITHOUT a fight.

Read my research link on #6 and you will see that I am right all the way. It's a long read, but you need to read it before countering my theory. I backing up my viewpoint with facts, please don't insult me with just opinion.

Posted by Poison Reverse 2005-08-26 15:55|| 2005-08-26 15:55|| Front Page Top

#9 Read my research link on #6 and you will see that I am right all the way. It's a long read, but you need to read it before countering my theory. I backing up my viewpoint with facts, please don't insult me with just opinion.

Never!

Posted by Shipman 2005-08-26 18:03|| 2005-08-26 18:03|| Front Page Top

#10 And you are right all the way. I expect a certain MOD will soon annoint you with a high quality pin. And Ima damn jealous!

Posted by Shipman 2005-08-26 18:04|| 2005-08-26 18:04|| Front Page Top

#11 Ship,

A coupon for a free apple pie at McDonald's will do just fine. Pin's and medals are for sissy's. Even the great warrior Kerry, didn't want his.

Posted by Poison Reverse 2005-08-26 18:38|| 2005-08-26 18:38|| Front Page Top

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