Turkeys House of Cards Moment: Arrests and Scandal Signal a Crisis for Erdogan
On May 2011, a month before parliamentary elections that were to sweep him to power for the third time since 2002, Turkish Prime MinisterRecep Tayyip Erdogan triumphantly unveiled his Two Cities project, featuring plans for a third Istanbul airport, a new bridge over the Bosporus strait, and a 35-mile canal connecting the Black and Marmara Seas. At the end of his presentation, greeted with rapturous applause, he turned to a middle-aged man seated near the stage, and asked, half-jokingly, Hey Agaoglu, maybe youll want in on the job?
Two parts Crazy Eddie, one part Gatsby and one part Trump, Ali Agaoglu, number 527 on Forbes billionaire list, is Turkeys most famous and arguably most notorious construction mogul, a man known just as much for his collection of luxury cars and ex-wives as he is for his links to Erdogans government and the state housing authority in particular. When I met him earlier this year at his companys sprawling offices, Agaoglu did not dispute the content of his May 2011 encounter with Erdogan. The prime minister was kind enough to make that request of us and we will do what is expected, he said. We will get our fair share.
Today, Agaoglu is in police custody. On Tuesday morning, in series of raids that seemed to catch all of Turkey, including Erdogans government, entirely off guard, Turkish police detained at least fifty people on suspicion of tender rigging, money laundering, and bribery. In a country where corruption investigations, at least those involving figures close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), are rare, this one has netted a number of very big fish: the sons of three Cabinet members, the mayor of one of Istanbuls biggest boroughs, the general manager of Turkeys second biggest state bank, Halkbank, several prominent businessmen, as well as a number of civil servants. And finally, Agaoglu.
According to a written statement released by the Istanbul Public Prosecutors Office, the detentions are the result of three separate probes that have been underway for at least ten months and include public servants accepting bribery and misuse of office.
To many Turkish observers, however, the ongoing inquiry isnt about the famous real estate tycoon or the dozens of other suspects, but about the man who holds the nations top office, Erdogan, and the Gulen community, a powerful Islamist movement that has turned into one of the Prime Ministers most dangerous foes. The movements growing grudge with Erdogans government, its strength in the police and the judiciary, the main suspects links to the AKP, as well as the background of the prosecutors in charge, all speak to the widely aired theory that the Gulenists are the driving force behind the arrests. It really does look like a Gulen operation, an escalation in [their] power struggle with Erdogan, says Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based expert at the the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. This is an attempt by a dark [force] to finish Erdogan, AKP deputy Mehmet Metiner told a press conference.
With Tuesdays arrests, analysts here say, the Gulenists have struck back. The movement, says Jenkins, is trying to intimidate Erdogan into backing down. Theyre desperate to prevent the closure of the prep schools, which they see as an existential issue, because it is their main method of recruitment.
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Russia revealed on Monday that its armed forces had moved nuclear-capable Iskander missiles closer to Europe's borders in response to the US-led deployment of a disputed air defence shield.
