PANJWAII DISTRICT, AfghanistanOne must turn back time several generations to find Canadian soldiers in the state that Charlie Company finds itself today. Not since the Korean War has a single Canadian combat unit been so cut to pieces so quickly.
Either of the two events that rocked their world in the dust-caked hills of southern Afghanistan one month ago might qualify as the worst day of their lives. That they came back-to-back one disastrous morning followed by another even worse is a matter of almost incomprehensibly bad fortune.
The epic double-whammy a perfect Taliban ambush of unprecedented intensity, followed one day later by a devastating burst of "friendly fire" from a U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthog reduced Charlie to a status of "combat ineffective." They were the ones to fire the opening shots of Operation Medusa. But even as the massive Canada-led assault was gathering steam they were finished.
The soldiers left standing are not the same today as the ones who deployed to Afghanistan with nothing but good intentions barely seven weeks ago, as part of 1st Battalion, Royal Canadian Regiment, based in Petawawa, Ont.
A few are emotional wrecks, too fragile still to speak of what transpired during that fateful Labour Day long weekend. Others bleed anger from their every pore.
Some cling to wounded pride, anxious for it to be known that if not for enormous self-sacrifice, the volume of Canadian blood shed these two mornings would have been vastly greater.
Others are disillusioned, having come to regard their work in Afghanistan as a mission impossible. And others still are more driven than ever to succeed, if only to lend greater meaning to the loss of their fallen Canadian brothers.
The survivors of Charlie Company are closer now than they were before. And the other thing they have in common is a need to tell their story, which they do today for the first time.
The White School was the objective, and not for the first time. A full month earlier the 1st Battalion of the Edmonton-based Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry, on the tail end of their six-month deployment, encountered serious Taliban resistance from the single-storey building. It was a hub of Taliban activity, but on the morning of Sept. 3, as Charlie Company's 7 Platoon bore down on the building, only the Taliban knew what a hub it was.
In hindsight, some of the soldiers acknowledge their "spidey sense" was tingling. It was quiet that day. Possibly too quiet, as the platoon motored through fields of ripening marijuana plants, each taller than a man.
The engineers went first, using an armoured bulldozer to open two breaches through barriers between the pot fields. A clear path to the school was opened, and into it went four LAVs and a G-Wagon, the lightly armoured Mercedes-Benz jeep that many of the Canadians in Kandahar have come to despise as a "bullet magnet."
Approaching left to right, the Canadians lined up 50 metres from the school, like ducks in a row. Sitting ducks, it would soon become clear.
"All hell broke loose," says Master Cpl. Allan Johnson of Owen Sound, in command of the LAV known as 3.1 Alpha.
"It was dead quiet. And then I saw a guy jump up on a roof. Maybe he was giving a signal to the other Taliban.
"All I know is the entire area just lit up. We were taking fire from at least two sides, maybe three, with everything they had. Rocket-propelled grenades, small-arms fire, the works.
"It was the cherry-popper of all cherry-poppers. And once we started taking casualties, we moved up to provide cover fire. Our cannon didn't stop from that point on."
The LAV from 2 Combat Engineer Regiment was the first hit, sustaining a bull's-eye RPG strike beneath the gunner's turret. The radio call announced injuries. It was the day's first fatality Sgt. Shane Stachnik, 30, of Waskatenau, Alberta.
Seconds later the G-Wagon exploded, with an RPG blasting through its passenger-side windshield, instantly killing Warrant Officer Rick Nolan, 39, of Mount Pearl, Nfld. Suddenly, 7 Platoon had lost its leader.
Cpl. Richard "Doc" Furoy, 32, of Elliot Lake, Ont., one of the company medics, was sitting directly behind Nolan inside the stricken G-Wagon, where he suffered light shrapnel injuries. He barely remembers the chaos that followed.
"Everything in the world came down on us and then, whoomp, the G-Wagon went black. I sort of lost consciousness. I could still feel the spray of gunfire, I could feel the concussion of the rounds inside my chest. But I couldn't hear anything," Furoy told The Star.
"At some point, somebody butt-stroked me with their rifle to snap me out of it. I came back into the present, got my wits about me. I knew I was needed. I checked on the Warrant Officer (Nolan). He was dead."
Thus began a firefight that lasted a full 3œ hours. As crews dismounted to retrieve the dead and wounded, the Canadian LAV gunners let fly into the marijuana fields with turret-mounted 25mm cannon and C6 fire. Each vehicle burned through at least two "uploads," representing more than a thousand rounds of firepower. 3.1 Charlie went through three uploads of suppression fire before pulling back from its original position, the last to leave the battlefield.
But there were more complications when the guns of one of the LAVs, 3.1 Bravo, either jammed or ran dry. Its crew compartment now loaded with casualties, Bravo reversed through the marijuana at 35 km/h, only to crash into a four-metre-deep irrigation ditch. Immobilized, its hydraulic rear ramp jammed shut against the ditch, Bravo took two direct RPG hits before its occupants were able to break open an emergency escape hatch.
With the tops of the pot plants snapping off around them as the Taliban barrage continued, many of Bravo's crew managed to make their way to 3.1 Charlie. Into a crew compartment designed for a maximum of eight, they stacked themselves like cordwood, the injured laid out on the laps of the untouched, and raced for cover.
Every battle plan includes a CCP, or casualty collection point. But in the frenzy of that Sunday morning the Canadians adapted their plan, moving their casualties to the nearest point of cover they could find an armoured Zettelmeyer front-end loader belonging to the combat engineers.
And it was there that arguably the most tragic death of the day occurred. Warrant Officer Frank Robert Mellish, 38, of 8 Platoon was not meant to be in the teeth of battle that day. But when Mellish, a native of Truro, N.S., learned that fellow Warrant Officer Rick Nolan was dead, he stepped up to help retrieve the body. They were best friends.
Moving from the rear guard, more than 1.8 kilometres from the White School, Mellish made it as far as the Zettelmeyer when he was caught in a storm of shrapnel and died. Now 8 Platoon, too, had lost its leader. And in the same barrage, Sgt. Major John Barnes suffered a concussion, taking another key player out of the fight.
"In the middle of all this chaos, we see this big, black fuck-off bomb coming toward us," said Cpl. Rodney Grubb, 25. "It was like a big, black steel football. It hit the ground and bounced and bounced and bounced. I hit the ground thinking, `Okay, we're done.' And then I got back up. The bomb just came to a stop. It didn't go off."
The day's fourth and final fatality fell next Pte. William James Cushley, 21, of Port Lambton, Ont., taking shrapnel to the head. And if it seemed the worst was behind Charlie Company, it wasn't. As work continued on sorting out the wounded, the cab door of the Zettelmeyer popped open and its bleeding driver stuck his head out, shouting, "I'm fucking hurt, too" before slamming shut the door to await rescue.
The Canadians had left three stricken vehicles on the battlefield, but were far enough back now to call in air support to renew a bomb assault on the sources of the ambush. And what they saw next gave chills to the entire company.
"In the middle of all this chaos, we see this big, black fuck-off bomb coming toward us," said Cpl. Rodney Grubb, 25, of Kitchener.
"It was like a big, black steel football. It hit the ground and bounced and bounced and bounced. I hit the ground thinking, `Okay, we're done.' And then I got back up. The bomb just came to a stop. It didn't go off."
The 500-pound, laser-guided bomb had come from the belly of a U.S. warplane. What saved the Canadians from its explosive force was a safety mechanism designed to disarm the device when it strays from its intended co-ordinates.
#1
What saved the Canadians from its explosive force was a safety mechanism designed to disarm the device when it strays from its intended co-ordinates
Wow. And an excelent safety it is, too. I wonder how they did it?
I would hope I would face such a situation with the same level of calm and professionalism.
Go Canada!
Posted by: N guard ||
10/10/2006 18:37 Comments ||
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A bomb ripped through a government vehicle in eastern Afghanistan yesterday and killed five people while the army and police reported they had killed 54 Taleban in clashes at the weekend. The remote-controlled bomb in eastern Nangarhar province destroyed a districts top three officials the chief of Khogyani district, his police commander and his intelligence chief. A policeman and a passerby were also killed, Nangarhar police spokesman Ghafoor Khan said.
The officials were traveling to a village to visit a school that the Taleban-led militants torched late Sunday, Khan said. Purported Taleban spokesman Yousuf Ahmadi claimed responsibility for the attack, saying his Taleban fighters detonated the bomb, which was planted on a road.
The army, meanwhile, reported it had killed 30 enemy elements on Saturday in an operation with foreign troops in southern Uruzgan province. Police put the toll at 20. In another clash in the same area in Charchino district on Sunday, three enemies of the people of Afghanistan were killed and four soldiers were wounded, a Defense Ministry statement said.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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54 Talebans dying for the glorious sheikhs Osama and Omar, er I mean Jihad, of course. That's 3,888 virgins. Dang, that's a lot of orgys.
#2
Exactly how do the Talibunnies sustain these ridiculous losses? Just about every time they battle NATO or US forces, the Talibunnies seem to lose men by a ratio of 50 to 1.
Do they have some kind of endless supply of virign-hunters? What's Pakwackland's opo. 145 mil or close to that?
The United Nations human rights chief said on Monday several hundred civilians - far more than first thought - may have died in late August attacks by militias in the south of Sudans violent Darfur region. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Louise Arbour, said the attacks appeared to have been carried out with the knowledge and material support of the government. The attacks ... were massive in scale, involving a large number of villages, and were carried out over only a few days. Government knowledge, if not complicity, in the attacks is almost certain, the OHCHR said in a report.
The (OHCHR) ... is urging the government of Sudan to order an independent investigation into recent militia attacks that may have left hundreds of civilians dead in south Darfur, it said in an accompanying statement. Early last month the High Commissioners office put the possible death toll from raids near Buram at 38. Many of the 10,000 people in the 45 villages targeted in the attacks, which began on Aug. 28 and lasted into September, were forced to flee. But it revised the toll in its latest report on the situation in Darfur, drawn up together with the United Nations Assistance Mission in Sudan, and based on interviews with survivors of the attacks and other sources. The large-scale assaults resulted in chaotic displacement, widespread separation of families and scores of missing children, the report said. Most of the villages attacked were under government control, it added.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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#3
Bush's fault. If he wasn't so focused on Iraq. blah, blah, blah.
Posted by: Jack is Back! ||
10/10/2006 12:02 Comments ||
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#4
Note that the UN is asking Sudan to "investigate" these "claims," giving them the benefit of the doubt. Contrast to how they treat any claims against Israel.
Somalias powerful Islamists on Monday declared holy war against Horn of Africa rival Ethiopia, which they accused of invading Somalia to help the government briefly seize a town controlled by pro-Islamist fighters. Starting from today, we have declared jihad against Ethiopia, Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed told a news conference, while wearing combat fatigues and clutching an AK-47 assault rifle.
They do look ferocious when they put on their combat fatigues and wave the old AK and grimace...
... but can they do gun sex ...
Both sides confirmed the takeover of Buur Hakaba, the first military counter-strike by President Abdullahi Yusufs interim government since the Islamists took Mogadishu in June and went on to seize much of Somalias south. Ahmed, usually viewed as a more moderate voice among the Islamists, appeared angry as he addressed reporters. Heavily armed Ethiopian troops have invaded Somalia. They have captured Buur Hakaba. History shows that Somalis always win when they are attacked from outside, he said.
The Islamists and residents of Buur Hakaba, seen as a potential flashpoint because it had put the Islamists within 30 km (20 miles) of the interim governments base in Baidoa, said Ethiopian troops accompanied government fighters who took over the town early on Monday. A government militia commander in Buur Hakaba denied that, and Addis Ababa has consistently said it has not sent any soldiers except for military advisers.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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Oh, yes please, Jesus!!! Let the Islamists actually attack the Ethiopian freaking Army!!! This will be good and bloody : Hinds, MiGs, 122mm artillery, and T-55s against Mad Max battlewagons! I am SO looking forward to this.
Posted by: Captain America ||
10/10/2006 2:01 Comments ||
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I hope the Ethiopians know what they're doing. With the exception of South Africa, black African militaries tend to be little different from the rebel armies they fight from time-to-time, capability-wise. It would be lame if Ethiopia ended up giving up a substantial chunk of its territory to the Somalis.
#6
People, remember that Ethiopia kicked Somalia's ass back when they were both unitary countries, and both were equipped with Soviet equipment. Since then, Ethiopia has lost Eritrea, but remained a united country otherwise. Ethiopia also has a formal reasonably well-trained and equipped military. The rump state of Somalia has shed both Puntland, and Somaliland. The remainder of Somalia is only notable since it contains Mogadishu the former national capital. The Somali Islamists do not have a functional state, nor a trained military, all they possess are a ragtag band of khat-chewers, thugs, and Islamic fanatics. Nor do the Islamists possess a standing military's equipment like tanks or APCs, they make due with battlewagons - light trucks rigged up with boilerplate armour. The Islamists may be able to beatup on farmers and teenagers go to a movie, but against any half-competent military opponent, they comprise nothing more than live-fire practice targets that bleed and scream.
Remember that with NO armor and NO artillery support, the Rangers caught in Black Hawk Down lost 18 of their men and killed between 500 and 1800 Somalis, while trying to work their way back through block after block of heavy enemy fire with most of the city's population taking potshots at them. So light infantry in unarmored trucks inflicted between 30 and 80 enemy dead for every friendly that died.
The Ethiopians have Hind attack helicopters, MiG-21 and -23 fighter/bombers, ex-Soviet 122mm standard artillery and Grad rocket artillery, and a mix of T-55, -62, and some Chinese knockoffs of the same tank classes.
Mad Max going up against a light armoured brigade? Beat on the brigade, and give points.
#8
"The Ethiopians have Hind attack helicopters, MiG-21 and -23 fighter/bombers, ex-Soviet 122mm standard artillery and Grad rocket artillery, and a mix of T-55, -62, and some Chinese knockoffs of the same tank classes.
Mad Max going up against a light armoured brigade? Beat on the brigade, and give points."
Ethiopian troops aint US Army Rangers. Dont bet the farm.
#9
It will be bloody, since the Ethiopians aren't held by Western morals when they fight. They level the village and then move on.
I bet on muzzies getting slaughtered on the border, but if the Ethiopians move deep inland, guerilla attacks and hit and runs will make it very tough for them indeed.
#10
Okay, I'll bet one chicken coop on the Islamofasists.
Posted by: F. Leghorn ||
10/10/2006 10:13 Comments ||
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The Ethiopians have Hind attack helicopters, MiG-21 and -23 fighter/bombers, ex-Soviet 122mm standard artillery and Grad rocket artillery, and a mix of T-55, -62, and some Chinese knockoffs of the same tank classes.
Let's hope we will soon be able to say: The Ethipians have F16 fighter bombers, MLRS, M1s, Bradleys. It will be still more fun.
A listed criminal was killed during a shootout between his accomplices and members of the Rapid Action Battalion (Rab) at Green Model Town in the city's Sabujbagh early yesterday. The dead, Mohammad Wasim, 28, was accused in two murder cases and a police assault case, police said.
Sabujbagh police quoting the First Information Report (FIR) filed by the Rab said a team of Rab-3 arrested him at Mugdapara at around 10:00pm on Sunday.
So that's the title of the fill-in-the-blanks form, a FIR.
Following his statement, the Rab members took him to Green Model Town at around 2:00am to recover his hidden arms and arrest his cohorts.
Ah, the fabled RAB late night roadtrip, when someone calls "Shotgun", they really mean it.
As the Rab team reached the area, Wasim's accomplices opened fire on the law enforcers to which they retaliated triggering a gunfight.
"It's the RAB! Open random covering fire!"
Wasim received bullets in the head and chest when he tried to escape during the shootout.
He died on the spot, while his accomplices fled into the night like they were never there. Rab recovered a gun and three bullets from the spot.
Mohammad Nadim, brother of Wasim, said his brother had been living at Madanpur in Narayanganj for the last one year and was involved in fish trading there. He came to visit his brother's residence at Mugda on Sunday and was caught by Rab. He was on bail in all the three cases against him, Nadim added.
And in other news:
Sex workers demand security
Sex workers yesterday protested the attack on them during an attempt to evict them from the 150-year-old brothel at Tangail. They also demanded security for them and their family members and called for ensuring their rehabilitation before the eviction.
At a press conference in the city, leaders of the Sex Workers' Network of Bangladesh said a vested quarter with the help of local administration has been trying to evict 1,200 women from the brothel to grab the land as it is located at the centre of the town. They said unruly people on October 7 launched the attack on sex workers and conscious people who are against such a sudden eviction, leaving about one hundred people injured. They also demanded punishment to those responsible for the attack.
Hazera Begum of Durjoy Nari Shangha said the vested quarter has become active again ahead of the next election to bolster popularity among voters. The leaders also urged all, including the local administration and civil society members, to help protect the rights of the sex workers and their children living in the brothel.
Posted by: Steve ||
10/10/2006 08:43 ||
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I want a RAB team in my city. Clean the gangs out. Go RAB!
LONDON -- A disturbing debate has erupted here in Britain over the appalling manner in which British servicemen and women are treated upon their return from Iraq and Afghanistan.
A recent news story reported that Lord Bramall, a former Chief of Staff, is dismayed by the news of a British paratrooper being verbally threatened by a Muslim visitor to a public ward in a Birmingham hospital. Many of these men fear for their lives as they lie helpless in their beds with serious wounds and illnesses.
The intruder at Selly Oak Hospital in Birmingham had more than once been seen harassing civilian and military personnel at the hospital. Various reports indicate that the problem arises from the lack of facilities in Britain for returning and long-term injured veterans. One soldier is quoted as saying that British troops pray that they are sent to Ramstein, which they describe as the outstanding American facility in Germany. In Britain, they complain, they are forced to endure a a mental health patient on one side and an incontinent geriatric on the other.
But instead of prompting a debate on the failures of British veterans services, this has triggered one of the British media worlds predicable bouts of anti-Americanism. Writing on October 4 in Londons Evening Standard, for example, commentator Nick Cohen made the bizarre observation that American troops also have a miserable time when they return home because George W. Bush provides tax cuts to the wealthy.
What this has to do with the welfare of wounded soldiers in Britain is beyond me, though such claims reinforce my view that, where the processing of information is concerned, Americans and Brits have more than an ocean between them. For, notwithstanding the daily drubbing America gets here, one of the many areas in which the United States stands head and shoulders above any other nation in the world is its care for veterans.
Consider the history. As far back as 1636, the pilgrims of Plymouth Colony passed a law providing assistance for soldiers from the colonys resources. Since that time, the U.S. Congress has passed many laws establishing special care for veterans. When the United States entered World War I, for instance, programs were put into place to provide disability compensation, insurance and vocational rehabilitation. Congress created the Veterans Administration in 1930 and of course in 1944 the GI Bill of 1944 was enacted to provide funding for returning veterans seeking to enroll in educational and vocational training programs. Today, there are literally hundreds of veterans homes, rehabilitation centers and educational programs available to service personnel and their families. No equivalent of the GI Bill was ever passed in Britain.
Of course, it is not just Americas concern for its armed services that Britons judge deficient. For instance, Britons have constantly berated me about the supposedly lousy education I received in the United States, and the notion that American students are always a year behind their British counterparts enjoys popular currency here. But the indisputable fact is that some of the worlds top universities are located in the United States. As well, thanks to farsighted legislation like the GI Bill -- it has been suggested that the GI Bill had more impact on American life and destiny than any legislation since the Homestead Act of 1844 -- many Americans have reaped the benefits of mass education. The result is that Americans, not least American troops, enjoy historically unprecedented levels of prosperity.
So it should not be surprising that many British troops looks with admiration to the United States. When I was interviewing British war veterans for a documentary, every man said he was envious of the generous schemes available to American servicemen, but which were non-existent in Britain. Indeed, there is no British equivalent of Arlington National Cemetery, nor is there an organization like the Department of Veterans Affairs. My late mother used to say that a nations humanity could be measured by the way it treated its Jews. One ventures to say that a nations greatness may also be measured by the way it treats its veterans in both war and peacetime.
There is a lesson here for writers like Nick Cohen. Instead of repeatedly condemning the United States in the media, the British might consider looking to the United States for new ideas. Perhaps then they can finally treat their struggling veterans with the dignity they deserve.
Russia hit out on Tuesday at U.S. plans to deploy an anti-missile shield on Polish soil, saying the move was an attempt to destabilize the balance of power.
Washington is investing billions of dollars to develop a missile defense system which would use rockets to shoot down hostile missiles.
It is considering placing its biggest anti-missile site outside the United States and is talking to Poland and the Czech Republic about possible locations.
"We see this as an element of destabilizing the situation, an attempt - and no more than that - to change somewhat the strategic balance," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told a news conference.
Russia's Foreign Ministry has already said Moscow would take unspecified measures against Poland if it decides to host the anti-missile shield.
Posted by: Captain America ||
10/10/2006 18:48 ||
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#1
Why are you so upset? Are you planning on shooting missiles at Poland? Or threatening to do so?
Two officers of the battalion Vostok of the 42n division of the Russian Defence Ministry got injuries in a blast of their car, Itar-Tass learnt at the commandants office on Monday. The explosive device went off at the moment when the VAZ car with servicemen of the battalion was moving along the road where it was planted. The injured servicemen, the battalion commander and the company commander, were rendered first aid. At present law enforcers are looking for those who staged the act of terrorism.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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THE prospects for tough, swift action against North Korea were scuppered yesterday when it became clear that South Korea will not abandon its policy of engagement with its totalitarian neighbour, in spite of North Koreas claimed nuclear test.
As the US and Japan called for tough punishment for Mondays test and experts predicted that a second may be imminent, leaders in Seoul appeared to have accepted that they will have to live with a nuclear North Korea at least until Washington can be persuaded to engage in direct talks with the isolated Stalinist state.
Lets face the reality: North Korea is a nuclear power and it wont be easy to change that, said Moon Chung In, a professor of political science who is also an ambassador at large for the South Korean Government. We could have prevented it, but the US would not. Now weve got to learn how to live with it.
Chinese foreign officials in Beijing spoke of the negative impact the test had had on their relations with North Korea, an unprecedented shift. But in New York, where the diplomatic aftershocks of the test are being negotiated, profound differences among the five veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council were becoming ever more apparent
Posted by: Captain America ||
10/10/2006 20:50 ||
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#1
We could have prevented it, but the US would not. Now weve got to learn how to live with it.
F-you loser. YOU prevent it, or pay him off now. I'm for pulling out and watching the hilarity when Japan puts the Rising Sun flag back on the pole.
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats ||
10/10/2006 21:11 Comments ||
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#2
That's some monumental fucking gall to blame America when they have constantly appeased Kim. If interfering with communist China's ambitions weren't so important, I'd say we should pull out and let them twist gently in the breeze.
#5
I am p*ssed off enough at the SKORS for their appeasment and anti-american attitude. But I am not yet ready to let them flap in the wind, especially after 50,000+ American dead and over 100,000 wounded in the Korean War.
However, the SKORS need to realize that there is no free ride after 50+ years of insuring their security. We need to be phasing out our ground troops now on a steady, rational, accelerated schedule. SKOR is plenty strong in the military to take care of Kimmie. They need the will. We cannot provide it. There is nothing like a dose of reality to help you get your sh*t together. They sink or swim, depending upon their national will. However, this does not apply to the Paleos, who, when in a hole, dig deeper. heh.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/10/2006 22:59 Comments ||
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#6
JSU, 5 years? 6 and 2 months to timewave zero (whatever that represents in Terrence McKenna's concept of novelty--I hope it did not mean that we all be living under sharia by then, that would be a type of novelty I'd rather skip entirely and won't miss for a second), then we are looking at 4 decades of really tiresome, fucked up crap, maybe more. Things would probably become more cheerfull in 60's, close, but no cigar, trying to catch up with the golden age for several centuries.
Japan government sources said to confirm second tremor early Wednesday
TOKYO - North Korea appears to have conducted another nuclear test, Japanese national broadcaster NHK said on Wednesday.
Japanese government sources had information that there was a tremor in North Korea this morning and they were checking on the possibility of a nuclear test, NHK said.
Defying warnings from its neighbors, the United States and the U.N. Security Council, North Korea announced on Monday that it had conducted its first-ever nuclear test. Pyongyang had earlier said a U.S. "threat of nuclear war and sanctions" had forced its hand.
Meanwhile, a South Korean official said seismic monitors did not detect any tremors that could indicate a possible second nuclear test.
Posted by: john ||
10/10/2006 20:06 ||
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A very well-placed government source told me Tuesday afternoon that the North Korean explosion was non-nuclear. The explosion may have been an actual nuclear test this is unknown but the source reports the outcome was non-nuclear. The source stressed the importance of bearing in mind that though the explosion occured in North Korea if it was actually a test and not merely a dictator clamoring for attention and influence the test may have been by or for the Iranians. The source reported that American physicists with access to the information see no sign of nuclear activity, however. My source also mentioned that Japanese sensors picked up no radiation signatures.
Here's a pure, wild-assed conjecture: could Kimmie have set off a large non-nuclear blast, of a size that could easily be confused with a possible nuclear test, just to see what the world's reaction would be?
If the world falls to confusion and bickering and makes a half-hearted response of some sort, he's found out something valuable.
OTOH, if the world starts looking like it's about to go medieval on his skanky little ho' ass, he can simply call in his buddies the Chinese and allow their scientists to certify to the world that the explosion was non-nuclear, getting him off the hook.
In either case, he learns something that will help him calibrate his future actions. He's GOT to be very, very curious about just how far he can go.
Just noodling...
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 18:46 Comments ||
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#3
Check the other thread - no evidence really possible until later today.
DANDONG, CHINA - China has cancelled leave for troops along at least part of the border with North Korea, a mainland-controlled Hong Kong newspaper reported today, a day after the North announced a nuclear test.
The Wen Wei Po said Chinese Peoples Liberation Army troops ranged along the border in northeast Chinas Jilin province have had leave totally cancelled and some forces were conducting anti-chemical training exercises.
But trains between the two countries appeared to be running as normal.
Officials and businessmen in Dandong, a bustling Chinese border city that looks across the Yalu River to North Korea, told Reuters that traffic across a bridge between the two countries would halt today except for special official cars.
A customs official said the main customs posts on North Koreas border with China would shut to most traffic, restricting one of the isolated Norths key portals to the outside world.
It was unclear whether the moves were prompted by Pyongyangs reported nuclear test and the strikingly sharp condemnation it drew from China, its longtime partner and aid-provider.
Beijing condemned the test as brazen and Chinese President Hu Jintao warned the North and other powers against escalating the crisis.
In a phone call with US President George W Bush, Hu warned North Korea not to take any more actions that may worsen the situation, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
But Hu, who was feted as a friend of North Korea when he visited late last year, said there was still room for negotiations to end North Koreas nuclear weapons ambitions.
China has consistently advocated denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and opposed nuclear proliferation, arguing for peaceful settlement of the Korean nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiation, Hu said.
Chinas 1400-km border with impoverished North Korea is guarded by troops on both sides.
The two communist neighbours are long-time allies, and in past years one of the Chinese troops main tasks has been stopping North Korean refugees crossing into China, where they seek work or asylum in other countries.
Chinese commentators left no mistake that North Koreas nuclear announcement had badly bruised relations.
North Koreas holding of a nuclear test has offended China and put China in a very awkward diplomatic spot, Xu Guangyu of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association told Ta Kung Pao, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong paper.
North Korea humiliated China by carrying out a nuclear test in defiance of Beijings requests to curb its nuclear weapons ambitions, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said.
Downer summoned North Koreas ambassador in Australia, Chon Jae Hong, to his parliament house office for a protest meeting today, telling him North Korea had humiliated the Chinese government.
It was one thing to be offensive to the United States, Britain and Australia and their allies. But it is another thing to treat the Chinese, who have been such stalwart supporters of North Korea for such a long time, in this way, Downer said.
The Chinese government had been working intensely to try and stop this testing from taking place.
Chon said the test was conducted to defend the supreme national interest and security of our nation.
We are under extreme threat from the US of a nuclear war, he told reporters ahead of his meeting with Downer.
World powers condemned North Korea on Monday after it said it had conducted its first underground nuclear test, and Washington sought harsh UN sanctions that could further isolate the communist state.
US President George W Bush called it a provocative act that threatened international peace and security and said it required an immediate response from the UN Security Council.
Downer said Australia would back UN sanctions and would ban North Korean officials visiting Australia, which is one of the few countries to have diplomatic ties with Pyongyang. But Australia would not expel Chon or cut off diplomatic ties.
He said Australia had confirmed the test, but he stopped short of confirming whether nuclear material was involved, saying details were still being analysed.
There is some question about the size of the test and, if you like, the nature of the test, he said. We can conclude at this stage safely that this was a very small device by the standards of nuclear devices.
The test was a sharp blow to Chinese President Hu Jintaos doctrine of using economic incentives and diplomatic coaxing to avert North Koreas drive to become a nuclear weapons state.
China had always supported North Korea. Eighty per cent of North Koreas aid comes from China, 50 per cent of North Koreas trade is with China, said Downer.
The North Koreans have treated China extremely shabbily in this particularly situation. Oh yeah, poor poor ChiComs. So helpful and sincere and peace-loving - and just look at what this ingrate has done...
#4
We are under extreme threat from the US of a nuclear war, he told reporters ahead of his meeting with Downer.
No, but they do need to worry that the US will be able to carry the Security Council to vote on a total embargo, preventing the smuggling of arms, white slag (is that heroin? I've never known), and forged US$100 bills... thus cutting off North Korea's major sources of income.
Besoeker, mostly the Chinese were guarding against infiltration by escaping civilians hoping to find work or food.
#7
Zhang, if that was the intended message, they badly bungled the transmission. Putting troops on alert sounds like aggression against NKor, not protectiveness, not even by orwellian standards of communication. Especially in combination with talk about custom posts being shut to traffic.
Wonder if there's any likelihood of a NKor purge if the muttering about the test being unusually small blooms into a full-fledged bout of painful, public humiliation over their wet squib?
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
10/10/2006 9:29 Comments ||
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#8
I think China is more worried about refugees than anything else on the border.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
10/10/2006 9:34 Comments ||
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#9
China did this to send a massage. Did lil Kim slip out of the sock and run off on them ? Maybe lil Kim is too nuts to realize he is just a puppet.
#11
I am tired of hearing about China and SK's concern about refugees.
China thinks its a superpower. It has 1.6B people and can mobilize millions. NK has around 20MM. If it really is a world power, China would offer to occupy SK under the auspices of the UN and build whatever camps were necessary to provide relieve to NK as it began reconstruction. The US, Japan and Europe would gladly fund this effort. Getting them up to 1500 calories per day will not cost much at all.
SK is a very wealthy country. NK's GDP is less than a 10th of SKs. It could easily fund reconstruction in NK over the course of a generation. Massive help from the West would always be there if they wanted it.
NKs regime would have ended years ago if these 2 powers had wanted it to. Instead, China is trying to break down the US system of alliances and, therefore, likes the fact that the US has to expend geopolitical capital on the NK issue. SK Inc. likes having access to cheap (slave) labor up north and, as the most nationalist people on earth, also like how Kim sticks it to the US.
Whiile understandable, if arguably shortsighted, neither country's NK policy is based on any consideration of morality or humanitarianism and both are directly at odds with the US. Therefore we need to get off of the peninsula and retrench on the Japan alliance and growing alliance with India.
#12
Ya I agree, let's bail out of SK and let the chips fall where they may, who cares about them, bullshit. 36,576 Americans paid in combat for that country with their lives. Walking away from SK to form a stronger relationship with a country we once nuked, that by the way does not want our military there, is short sighted and an insult to the men and women who died defending SK.
Attack Kim's govt, nuke him or whatever it takes to end this, I'm ok with it. But to walk away is wrong.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
10/10/2006 10:32 Comments ||
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#14
49 PAN, I understand your point. However, I would argue that it is SK that walked away with its so called 'sunshine policy' not the US. Until recently, they were an ally but since the early 1990s they have been working at cross purposes with us. A decent fraction of the SK electorate actually believes that we are in SK to keep the country divided and is proud that their fellow Koreans are defiant and developing atomic bombs. Generally, it is the younger Koreans who feel this way while the older generation is still grateful to the US. I
Withdrawing now would simply ensure that we do not add to the total of 36,576 Americans who died stopping the communists while giving us more flexibility in how we handle the current threat from that regime. Besides, it is clear from the protests that our military presence in SK is at least as unpopular with the locals as our presence in Japan. In the words of one SK legislator, our troops are 'hostages' preventing the US from taking a more aggressive stance vs. Kim.
I am not sure how the fact that we nuked Japan 60 years ago is relevant. Certainly they do not like a lot of American soldiers in Japan. However, they do seem to want to work with us to defend against NK's missile arsenal and to provide a nuclear umbrella. Currently our interests are aligned in this regard and the current Japanese government is the only regional power serious about countering the threat from NK.
#15
I believe that at the end of the day the UNSC will issue the dreaded strongly worded memo, everyone will posture, no one will actually do anything, everyone will quietly accept the status quo, and we will all cheerfully move on to the next sex scandal.
Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea will not create a nuclear capability.
The democrates will take the House, try to impeach the president and generally just plain fiddle while Rome burns.
Posted by: kelly ||
10/10/2006 11:49 Comments ||
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#16
M: Putting troops on alert sounds like aggression against NKor, not protectiveness, not even by orwellian standards of communication. Especially in combination with talk about custom posts being shut to traffic.
I'll have to disagree. Putting troops on alert is what happens if they have to prepare to move. China put 100,000 air defense troops in North Vietnam during the Vietnam War. Hundreds were killed during US bombing raids. I expect they will do the same for Kim during his hour of need. The closure of customs posts is probably to prevent civilian traffic from interfering with Chinese troop movements into North Korea. I understand China has purchased the latest Russian air defense batteries - newer than anything used during the invasion of Iraq. We may get to see how well they work if American bombers start carrying out missions over North Korea.
#17
ZF, I hope youre wrong. Kicking the shit out of NK will be easy. If China gets into it with us the fight will not be good. China is an enemy I would rather not fight.
Hay JAB, my apologies for coming off so hard on ya for this one. We paid dearly for that spit of land; ol dad was a sea bee there. I would hate to just walk away. Your point about the youth is well taken, I saw it in Germany as well - They screamed for us to leave and when we started to leave they begged for us to stay. When push comes to shove the folks that run SK will beg us to stay and help them. I am certainly of the belief that NK would have attacked years ago if we were not there and I'm sure SK's leaders believe this to be true.
As for Japan, there is nowhere on earth where basing is more difficult. We are on Oky because the Japanese consider them second class. The environment there, politically, is more hostile than anywhere I have ever been.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
10/10/2006 13:34 Comments ||
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#18
I wouldn't be shocked if Japan isn't working on weaponizing the Mu-5 solid-fuel space booster (which is essentially a back-engineered AGM-118 Peacekeeper) using warhead designs that one of their good friends (wonder who?) let them borrow.
Posted by: Mike ||
10/10/2006 15:57 Comments ||
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#19
49 Pan: If China gets into it with us the fight will not be good. China is an enemy I would rather not fight.
I've always thought there was an element of wishful thinking in media and elite assumptions about China's intentions vis-a-vis North Korea. My assumptions are pretty simple - if China supports North Korea in deed while verbally criticizing it, I have to conclude that China does in fact support North Korea, policy-wise. I judge intentions by what people do, not what they say.
U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday. U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports. "There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."
The underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast, the official said. The official said that so far, "it appears there was more fizz than pop."
White House spokesman Tony Snow said assessing the validity of North Korea's claim of a successful nuclear test could take several days. "We need to find out precisely what it is that took place yesterday, and that is something that's going to take awhile for the scientists and others to work through," Mr. Snow said. "Nobody could give me with any precision how long it will take until they can say with certainty what happened."
Posted by: Captain America ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[2 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
Taepo Dong 2 missle - 860lb payload, 2672 mile range. You need a small warhead for a small missle.
#2
Maybe they blew up one of those trains they ripped off from the Chinese?
2004-05-17 Ryongchon Explosion Eight Times as Great as North Claims
Japan's Kyodo News, citing numerous diplomatic sources in Vienna, reported Saturday that the force of April 22's train explosion at the North's Ryonchon Station was about that of an earthquake measuring 3.6 on the Richter scale, which would have required about 800 tons of TNT --about eight times that officially announced by North Korea.
#9
seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
All in all, the best possible news. Kim has dropped his drawers for all to see. Premature efizzulation, indeed!
The charges needed to detonate a plutonium warhead aren't that large - it's the timing of the fuses which ignite the explosives which implode the fisile material to critical mass which is crucial.
Thus, it would appear, on the surface, that the detonations were fakes, probably using several tons of ammonium nitrate/diesel fuel mixture in an attempt to appear to have detonated a nuke.
#11
The only odd thing is how Kim and crew know damn well that modern seismic monitoring systems would be able to discriminate between a conventional and nuclear detonation. Their attempts to fake anything would be doomed from the outset.
#13
I thought Angie was talking dirty too. In fact, I thought it was one of the cleverest comments for a while. Methinks the denial is modesty (both meanings).
#15
The US was also worried about a messy predetonation at their first test. A prophylactic was building to save the precious fissile material. Turned out it wasn't used....
Posted by: BJ Clinton ||
10/10/2006 7:20 Comments ||
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#17
You wish!
Posted by: Monica L. ||
10/10/2006 7:31 Comments ||
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#18
Steven Den Beste has some speculation (at his Chizumatic site) that the NKors have tried to hurry the Plutonium breeding process too much, and contaminated the Pu 239 with isotopes 240, 241 and 242. You can get a little, pure, 239 if you don't rush, or rather more, not so pure, if you do, he says.
Sounds plausible. KJI could just be an impatient boss. I wonder if the seismographs can pick up the low rumble of physicist's heads right now, rolling around the floor in North Korea.
#19
Oddly, if you filled a Taepo Dong 2 with explosives and placed the pointy side down and launched it you'd get an explosion just about the size of the one yesterday.
#20
"The only odd thing is how Kim and crew know damn well that modern seismic monitoring systems would be able to discriminate between a conventional and nuclear detonation."
Do you know for a fact that they can do so? If so, please cite sources.
Because I have to tell you, as an electrical engineer with 35+ years experience, the last seven of which have been spent designing vibration sensors, I not only do *NOT* "know damn well" that that nuclear explosions can be distinguished from conventional ones by seismic means, I'm very skeptical of the notion.
What is your source for this assertion? Precisely *HOW* is this detection accomplished?
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 8:49 Comments ||
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#21
My expertise is in intelligent software, among other things, and not in EE. However I share a domicile with someone who has over 30 years' experience in national security matters and he is rather skeptical of Zenster's assertion too.
Citation please, Zenster, if you want to stick by that assertion. The people I've asked might have missed something, but based on their security clearances and the jobs they've held I'm going to go with them on this unless there is new evidence they're/I'm not aware of.
my understanding is that SOME nuclear blasts can differ from SOME conventional explosions in a variety of ways that might include their seismic signature. But that does not at all mean that this is always the case.
You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives.
What the unidentified "official familiar with intelligence" reports, too.
#23
Seismic processing can discriminate between earthquakes and nuclear explosions with 90% certainty. But I highly doubt seismic detectors can discriminate with at most a few tens Hertz bandwidth can discriminate between conventional and nuclear explosions.
Posted by: ed ||
10/10/2006 9:14 Comments ||
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#24
What is proven by a 20KT vs 2KT vs 0.2KT nuclear explosion? Is there some minimum threshold below which the results of a test are not meaningful/useful? What is that minimum threshold?
If it is expensive to produce the fissile material, why waste it on getting bigger bang if it doesn't provide significantly greater information?
#25
There is a minimum mass of plutonium to get to criitcal mass. I think it is about 4kg. The US Fat Man bomb used a bit over 6 kg. That amount can be brought down using external neuton sources, but I haven't read anything that says NK has that capability.
Posted by: ed ||
10/10/2006 9:31 Comments ||
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#26
I would guess "big enough to not fuel speculation that it was a fake with conventional explosives". At least 4 KT, I'd offer as an ill-informed WAG. Elsewise, your display of martial prowess will get deflated by snide comments.
Such as this one.
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
10/10/2006 9:34 Comments ||
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#30
"But I highly doubt seismic detectors can discriminate with at most a few tens Hertz bandwidth can discriminate between conventional and nuclear explosions."
Even more bandwidth-limited than the sensors, is the propagation medium: from what I've gathered by Googling around (mainly here), the high-frequency spectral components of a seismic event are much more rapidly attenuated with distance than are the low frequencies. Frequencies higher than 30 Hz or so don't survive more than a few thousand meters from the event, and it is the high frequencies that would be vital in any plausible means of distinguishing between nuclear and non-nuclear blasts.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 9:59 Comments ||
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#31
What is your source for this assertion? Precisely *HOW* is this detection accomplished?
Well, the majority of the voices said they were there. But I think they are lying!
1. Proof of concept test
2. Barganing chip
3. Small nukes for sale to bidders (terrorists)
4. Hit areas outside of tunnels to blow holes in DMZ defenses.
With the failure of his Dong, I bet the nork scientists screwed the pooch again.
#35
Can a .55KT nuke actually work?? Sounds to me like it takes something larger just to fire. If that's not possible then it must be a fizzle or a fraud.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
10/10/2006 10:39 Comments ||
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#36
Yes it can. Artillery nukes were about at the .88-1.2 kT range.
#38
Ya I read that after I posted also, woops. I heard it will take up to 72 hours for the aircraft to get downwind tests, or whatever they do, to ID the type of bomb it was. Who knows how long it will take for the US to release the info.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
10/10/2006 11:21 Comments ||
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#39
My view is that it didn't go quite to plan. Or even if it did go to plan for the N.Kor then we should take the mikey out of them (propaganda) and laugh at them. I mean I reckon that somewhere U.S. Generals are planning an invasion already, so the N.Kor have really shot themselves in the foot.
#40
The underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast, the official said. The official said that so far, "it appears there was more fizz than pop."
Do you know for a fact that they can do so? If so, please cite sources
What is your source for this assertion? Precisely *HOW* is this detection accomplished?
Post # 21: lotp
Citation please, Zenster, if you want to stick by that assertion.
First assertion:
North Korea was, at one time, a member of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). Thus giving reasonable confidence that North Korean scientists were cognizant of verification methodologies employed by agencies tasked with monitoring their activities.
When the NPT entered into force in 1970, a majority of the world's nations banded together to endorse the prevention of nuclear proliferation. (Presently, all but four nations -- India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea - belong to the NPT. North Korea left the treaty regime in early 2003.)
Second assertion:
Seismic monitoring is a published and known cornerstone of NPT compliance verification. As indicated here:
Author: PORTH, JACQUELYN S (USIA STAFF WRITER) Date: 19950424 - [April 4, 1995]
(NPT: Delegates express concerns, recommendations) (930) By Jacquelyn S. Porth USIA Security Affairs Correspondent United Nations -- The "long-term viability" of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) "certainly rests on the capability and the efficacy of verification methods," says the president of the NPT review conference.
In remarks to some of the heads of NPT delegations on April 20, another VERTIC representative, Richard Gutherie, explained advanced verification techniques which are available in addition to on-site inspections such as satellite imagery, seismicmonitoring and placing tags and seals on critical equipment and materials.
Opened for signature in New York on September 24, 1996, the CTBT prohibits nuclear
test explosions of any size and establishes a rigorous verification system, including seismic monitoring and on-site inspections, to detect any violations.
Third assertion:
That it is possible to discriminate between nuclear and conventional underground explosions.
A Comprehensive Test Ban (CTB) treaty is being negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Switzerland. One important issue in the CTB deliberations is how to distinguish nuclear explosions from nonnuclear ones and from earthquakes. In September 1993, LLNL conducted the Nonproliferation Experiment, which provided direct information on this topic. For the first time, we compared seismic and other signals from a large chemical explosion to nuclear explosions of similar yield, which had previously been conducted under similar geologic conditions. Our studies showed that most signals from these two types of explosions are similar, but close-inelectromagneticmeasurementsdifferintheironsetandrisetimes. These results indicate that remote discrimination between some non-nuclear and nuclear explosions could be very difficult, that non-nuclear explosives could be used to calibrate discriminants between nuclear explosions and earthquakes, and that confidence-building measures could be instituted if close-in monitoring is permitted on large, announced chemical explosions.
Finally, for your further delectation, I present you with an exchange that occurred here at Ranburg over two years ago regarding a massive explosion in North Korea
If you dont believe me, maybe youll believe Oldspook.
#10 Nothing to see here. If it were, N Korea would have Juche-Salad spread all over the news. You'd at least get a few good days of propaganda from the Bouffant Dictator's press guys. And as far as a "fool the sensors" type of conventional explosion, not that easy: the intensity and gradient of the thermal activity in a nuclear detonation is unmistakable, and virtually impossible to fake (no real way to get conventional stuff to flash that intensely in that short a time then have the wavefront move at the right velocity), not to mention the absence EMP from a "fake". You'd have better luck trying to fake a TOW missle using a sh*tload of bottlerockets.
Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 1:15:44 AM|| Front Page|| Top
#25 #10 And as far as a "fool the sensors" type of conventional explosion, not that easy: the intensity and gradient of the thermal activity in a nuclear detonation is unmistakable, and virtually impossible to fake (no real way to get conventional stuff to flash that intensely in that short a time then have the wavefront move at the right velocity), not to mention the absence EMP from a "fake".
Listen to the man who knows. Our network of seismic detectors can pinpoint a nuclear test anywhere on earth within minutes. The "wavefront" that OldSpook mentions is the one that travels through the entire planet. It's kind of hard to miss that sort of event when it shows up at every single USGS seismic monitoring station in America. Never ascribe to malice that which can be accounted by incompetence. I'd heard this one as: Never attribute to conspiracy what can be explained by simple stupidity. An extremely cynical sort of Occam's razor. As Frank pointed out, this latest caper is just another watery turd on communist China's living room carpet, courtesy of their underfed Rottweiler. Too bad the politburo is so obsessed with global domination that it will take something much more severe (e.g., a Cherynoble-style meltdown) to get their attention.
Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 2:55:49 PM|| Front Page|| Top
#27 Zenster...you didn't hear the wavefront and wave envelope from me. Nope. not from me. I didnt say that. Glad you did.;-)
Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 4:47:09 PM|| Front Page|| Top
#28 Thank you, OldSpook. Always glad to help dispel any false assumptions. Your JDAM and bottle rockets analogy was spot on. Envelope analysis is a critic feature in assessing seismic events. The oil industry has been using this methodolgy for many decades. Similar to the acoustical envelope (as opposed to harmonic overtones) largely responsible for the distinctly different voicing or timbre of various musical instruments, the envelope of seismic waves illuminates much about their origin. In musical terminology an envelope has several components. They are, in order of sequence:
1.) Attack: The risetime of an acoustic signal from zero value (silence) to peak amplitude (full volume).
2.) Sustain: The duration or period of time which the note then remains at peak amplitude.
3.) Decay: The time required for the note played to diminish back to zero volume.
4.) Release: A special term designating an intentional clipping of the note's length of decay period.
The key term here is attack. Under no circumstances are conventional explosives able to mimic the massive and instantaneous energy release of a nuclear weapon's detonation. Chemical bombs have a much lengthier time of combustion as they explode. It is this one key difference that results in easily distinguishable attack signatures for the departing wavefront from such large explosions. The leading edge of a nuclear bomb's acoustic pulse signature will show a significantly steeper angle of rise from its baseline. It will also exhibit a much sharper "knee" as it undergoes a transition between the attack and sustain components of its envelope. The slower combustion rate of conventional explosives produces a less acute angle of attack and nowhere near the sharpness of knee when compared to a nuclear blast wave's risetime and peaking. The number of times a wavefront reverberates around the entire world and the speed at which it does this also assists in discriminating between nuclear and conventional explosions.
Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 5:43:02 PM|| Front Page|| Top
#31 Zenster, you know much about FFTs and their first real-world application area? If you do, I'll suspect you of having either worked a lot in certain parts of west Texas or else that you're living in northern Virginia near a nice small town. (grin)
Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 6:48:48 PM|| Front Page|| Top
So, what do I know? If you don't believe Oldspook, that's not my problem.
#42
I'll add one final and rather simple point. I've little doubt that we have a KH-12 parked over North Korea. Not only does such observation allow us to detect the North Koreans removing thousands of tons of earth for their test bore, but the same surveillance would also detect them moving inkilotons worth of conventional explosives.
#44
That does it, Zenster. Do you have an ungodly large Favorites list, or do have a way of searching Fred's archives that I would dearly love to learn?
#45
Except its actually harder to build subkiloton devices than the larger ones. In the case of nuclear weapons, 2 things are true, 1)"Close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades, and nukes." and 2)building larger yields, until you get to megaton yields, is easier to do than building compact sub-kiloton yields.
#46
That does it, Zenster. Do you have an ungodly large Favorites list, or do have a way of searching Fred's archives that I would dearly love to learn?
It's a combination of pachydermic memory and Googling finesse. Fred's stupendous archives are a big help, too. My memory is so good, I can remember the night I went out with my father and came home with my mother.
#47
Zenster, you're quoting things _out of context_.
The event that was being discussed in the previous thread you quoted was an _aboveground_ explosion. (Specifically, the train explosion that missed the Dear Leader's train by about half an hour). Being that it was an aboveground explosion, the electromagnetic spectrum emitted by the bomb was visible. (This would not be the case in the recent test).
I believe you have seismic waves confused with electromagnetic waves.
#50
Um no Zensters pretty much spot on. Seismic waves from any nuclear detonation will have certain S and P wave characteristics in the timing between the leading wave and followon, there will also be a certain ratio of P and S waves to each other, to give you an idea of the scope of what we're talking about you can get a quick summary here..
http://www.llnl.gov/str/Walter.html
and
http://www.llnl.gov/str/Zucca.html
You'll notice the major comparisons of the P and S waves and their ratios in those graphs towards the bottoms of the page?
For comparison here are yesterdays Inchon's seismograph readings
#51
Zenster, I don't understand why you included your "First Assertion" and "Second Assertion" in there; they aren't, and haven't been, at issue.
As to the Third Assertion, I think you misread what I wrote: what I was questioning was your original statement that "modern seismic monitoring systems would be able to discriminate between a conventional and nuclear detonation."
That's seismic monitoring. AFAIK, seismic monitoring alone cannot reliably distinguish between nuclear and non-nuclear detonations except at short distances; and the material you quoted from The Nonproliferation Experiment is in line with my understanding that the signals from nuclear and non-nuclear explosions are similar.
As for the discussion with Oldspook in September of 2004, IIRC that was an above-ground explosion that was being discussed, and I believe what OS was commenting on were the unique characteristics of the light & thermal output of a nuclear explosion-- NOT its seismic signature.
What I am asking you relates to the assertions you make in the comment #28 you quoted from that discussion, regarding attack/sustain/release/decay, in particular the final, long paragraph you wrote in that comment. Could you point me to something authoritative on that, that I could read? Thank you.
"So, what do I know? If you don't believe Oldspook, that's not my problem"
Please lose the sarcasm. It's insulting. I don't treat you that way, and I'd appreciate it if you'd return the favor.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 13:45 Comments ||
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#52
Thanks, Valentine, I'll check it out. Looks like that might be what I was after.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 13:48 Comments ||
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#53
Zenster, you're quoting things _out of context_.
The event that was being discussed in the previous thread you quoted was an _aboveground_ explosion. (Specifically, the train explosion that missed the Dear Leader's train by about half an hour).
AS, please click the Rantburg link I provided. It does not deal with the Ryongchon train explosion of April 22, 2004. The link I provided relates to a massive explosion of undetermined nature on or about September 9, 2004 that took place near Yongjo-ri. It is safe to assume that this was an underground or mining explosion of some sort by the nature of later disclosures. There is speculation that it may even have been a calibrating detonation for their recent attempted nuclear test.
Ryanggang explosion
The suspected explosion was located near the town of Yongjo-ri in the county of Kimhyŏngjik in Ryanggang.
North Korea initially denied that the explosion was nuclear. When prompted for an explanation, North Korea's foreign minister, Paek Nam-sun, officially stated that the explosion "was in fact the deliberate demolition of a mountain as part of a huge hydroelectric project".
Additionally, I am aware that my third cite more specifically refers to electromagnetic components and not seismic measurements being used in blast analysis. That is why I searched out the exchange with Oldspook regarding seismic discrimination between nuclear and conventional explosions. Oldspooks credentials are pretty well established hereabouts and he confirms my own statements regarding this.
#54
Please lose the sarcasm. It's insulting. I don't treat you that way, and I'd appreciate it if you'd return the favor.
That wasn't meant to be sarcastic. I was just a little weary after spending two solid hours or more chasing down all of these details. I hope that my sincere efforts to substantiate what I posted count for something.
#55
Zenster, I don't understand why you included your "First Assertion" and "Second Assertion" in there; they aren't, and haven't been, at issue.
The preliminary assertions are made to establish a solid connection between how North Korea's scientists could not have possibly avoided foreknowledge of seismic monitoring being in place and the use of that methodology by those agencies tasked with monitoring North Korea. Their prior knowledge of this was part of my assertion, that is why I connected it up.
"The only odd thing is how Kim and crew know damn well that modern seismic monitoring systems would be able to discriminate between a conventional and nuclear detonation."
#56
As for the discussion with Oldspook in September of 2004, IIRC that was an above-ground explosion that was being discussed, and I believe what OS was commenting on were the unique characteristics of the light & thermal output of a nuclear explosion-- NOT its seismic signature.
I've done my best to establish that the Yongjo-Ri explosion was of an underground nature. While there was some surface release (i.e., a mushroom cloud), all further explanations given presented the incident as having been sub-surface. If you have proof of it being entirely above ground, please provide a link.
Oldspook specifically refers to "wavefront and wave envelope" and concurs with my description of acoustic envelopes and their relation to seismic detection methods. His mention of thermal, EMP and flash effects does not contradict my statements.
Using 20/20 hindsight, it's pretty clear that the Yongjo-Ri event was probably a calibrating run. If that were true, then the detonation would have most certainly been sub-surface.
#57
What I am asking you relates to the assertions you make in the comment #28 you quoted from that discussion, regarding attack/sustain/release/decay, in particular the final, long paragraph you wrote in that comment. Could you point me to something authoritative on that, that I could read? Thank you.
My observations in that paragraph were based upon years of reading done decades ago whose sources I cannot possibly retrieve at this time. I should think that my efforts of today would assure you that I'm not trying to cop out with this last statement.
I've little doubt that we have a KH-12 parked over North Korea.
Nope. Too low.
Please explain, Shipman. Our Rhyolite series can be slotted anywhere from an atmosphere-scraping low earth orbit that requires constant re-boosting out to total fully geosynchronous positions.
#58
Why would you put an optical spy satellite 23,000 miles from Earth?
I'm not certain of the weight of a KH-XX but it's gotta be at least as much as the Hubble Space Telescope, I don't think we have the boosters for that kinda lift.
HST mirror v. the James Webb Space Telescope mirror. Radically lighter, so perhaps a KH-XX could make geosynchronous orbit - it would be optically foolish.
#60
(1) Our Rhyolite series can be slotted anywhere from an atmosphere-scraping low earth orbit that requires constant re-boosting out to total fully geosynchronous positions.
Well, speaking as someone who has read some of the work on satellite orbit maneuvers, I can say that what is possible is very often not practical or cost-effective. Satellites carry a very limited, non-renewable amount of fuel for maneuvering and going to very low orbits means GREAT expenditure to go back up to high orbits, or even to avoid drag when you get low enough.
2. I respect Old Spook. I equally, if not more, respect my source who was in the black world for a long time and whom I know outside of the Burg.
Zenster, I respect your enthusiasm, energy and general smarts. But on this topic you are trying to draw conclusions without having the full set of info and experience to draw on. Pushing hard on an assertion for which you yourself do not have expertise is, in this case, not doing yourself as much credit as you normally do.
Seismic monitoring is ONE source of information which, combined with other info, is used to infer whether a blast came from a nuclear detonation. By itself it may not, and often IS NOT, adequate -- which is why the US and other governments have NOT stated conclusively that there was (or was not) such a blast in North Korea yesterday.
#61
Read "Deep Black" by William Burrows, Ship. He specifically mentions how we have placed KH-11s in geosynchronous orbit when needed. For what a sore spot North Korea is, we might well have them under constant surveillance. The optics on those beasties may be a lot better than you think. Plus, that position would give us a lot of China's most important coastline to look at as well.
I've also heard, and I seem to recall Burrows mentioning, that the Hubble Telescope was based on or copied by the KH-12's optics. I don't know their weight, but they're the size of a Greyhound bus.
#62
Yes, Zenster, yes .... but will you at least admit that there are some rather significant parameters you do NOT know the values for, which make a big difference when drawing conclusions on this topic?
Sorry if I sound exasperated. I know we all want to know what's going on and to draw policy conclusions from it. But there's a point where speculation becomes fruitless without key information which, I warrant, no one here a) has or b) of they have it, will speculate / assert here based on it.
I speak as the spouse of someone who for many many years could say very little about what he did each day in uniform, 'Kay???
#63
Satellites carry a very limited, non-renewable amount of fuel for maneuvering and going to very low orbits means GREAT expenditure to go back up to high orbits, or even to avoid drag when you get low enough.
lotp, perhaps you misinterpreted my post. Nowhere do I say that our KHs migrate from geosynchronous down to LEO or vice versa. While the latest models carry much greater quantities of fuel, they would still exhaust it quite soon trying to make such a maneuver, if at all.
Again, without wishing to be obscure, I'm also very confident that our government is not telling us even one tenth of what they know about North Korea's test. Revealing that it was merely conventional explosives may tip our hand about domestic capabilities to the NPT or IAEA people in ways we do not wish to.
#64
That avoids my larger point, Zenster. You have now repeatedly asserted that North Korea knows unequivocably that we can distinguish a nuclear from a deliberately intended-to-deceive conventional blast based on seismic data alone.
Dave D., who has some expertise in the topic, doubts that that is possible and asks for a clear citation to back up your assertion.
I, who do not have direct expertise but live with someone who is rather knowledgeable in the wider topic, also have reason to believe the assertion is unsupported.
What the government knows and is not telling is one thing.
Your assertion that North Korea knows it COULD NOT get away with a fake "nuclear blast" because the seismic data ALONE would inevitably and unambiguously give it away .... is a rather different and more central issue.
#65
so what I can gather from the above you need seismic monitors CLOSE to the explosion site to differentiate. How far is the test site from Vladivostok. Russians are affirming that it WAS a nuke, while US intell sources are skeptical. What reason would Russia have for misstating, in this instance?
#68
Your assertion that North Korea knows it COULD NOT get away with a fake "nuclear blast" because the seismic data ALONE would inevitably and unambiguously give it away .... is a rather different and more central issue.
Agreed, and that is why, after scouring the Internet for two solid hours I was forced to resurrect Oldspook's confirmation of my previous posts on this topic. I had even reviewed the links that Valentine posted during my initial search and did not feel that they provided enough confirmation.
While no one is ever obilged to make the best decisions, North Korea's scientists, like most others on earth, would just as likely know that attempting to falsify a nuclear test could come back to bite them in the very worst way.
I also think that we are subjecting North Korea to intense surveillance and would have used those observations to show them carting dumptrucks of fertilizer and Deisel into the test bore. Discrediting Kim would serve innumerable of our interests at present.
#69
That's what I keep looking at LH. Pooties junk is much closer to the site of the explosion than USGS stuff, unless...... Why wouldn't we have equipment in SK? I bet we did, and someone just ain't tellin'. Yet.
Posted by: Mike N. ||
10/10/2006 16:24 Comments ||
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#70
Two things
1. Did our sats pick up the excavation and explosives entering the hole for the "calibration run"?
2. Just wait a few days and the New York Times will have the final and definitive answer, leaked from Langley - as long as it can be spun to make Bush look bad.
And 'dud' or not, I bet Kimmie is having fun with all the confusion!
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/10/2006 16:43 Comments ||
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#71
One thought with regard to the North Korean scientists. They are much in the same position as Lysenko under Stalin -- the immediate choices are:
1. Tell the truth and get killed now
2. Tell the required lie now, of course fail, and get killed when Stalin notices
3. Lie now, and through an inexplicable miracle somehow make it come true... at which point the process starts again.
North Korea has been under the thumb of the Kims for a long time, time enough that almost all of the scientists will have grown up with those choices ground into their bones. Those that need absolute scientific truth didn't make it much into adulthood. The rest aren't likely to let a little thing like the tut-tutting world being aware of their falsehoods get in the way of keeping from being killed by the nearby and much more serious threat of Kim's displeasure, should they tell him they can't give him what he wants when he wants it. And quite possibly they wouldn't tell him he can't have his nuclear explosion as planned, soley on the grounds that they aren't capable of it yet.
#73
Does anyone remember a year ago or so when there was a big event in NorK that registerd on seismometers around the world? NorK explained it away as a civil project like a dam or something. Could this be realted to events these days? Are there any signs of a dam being worked on for the past year?
#74
Related to Zenster's post 53, and my question No. 1 in #70 - but still a good one.
Where did the norks get the capital for a dam project? WJ Clinton?
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/10/2006 17:12 Comments ||
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#75
1. Did our sats pick up the excavation and explosives entering the hole for the "calibration run"?
So far, the only candidate being mentioned for a "calibration run" is the Yongjo-Ri explosion in Ryanggang back in September of 2004. Wikipedia makes no mention of surveillance data regarding that event.
#76
Yep, that's what I'm remembering. I haven't heard a peep about any hydroelectric facility in NorK, and you think that would be all over the papers if they were going to try to do anything like that.
They were probably either covering up a mining accident (unlikely with an explosion as big as the article implies by having nations react to it), or it was some kind of practice run for whatever it is they are up to today (more likely, in my mind).
#77
TW,
Consider this - there is a growing school of thought that Kim tried detonating a Pakistani design yesterday, one identical to a weapon that fizzled some years back. If that's the case, then his scientists are now busily pointing fingers at Karachi and Khaaaaaaaaaaaaan!...
Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski ||
10/10/2006 17:26 Comments ||
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#78
If I had to make some SWAGS right now, I would come up with something like this
Prob******Scenario
Med*******Dud
V Low*****Conventional explosive switcheroo
Low*******Engineered low yield device (includes suitcase nuke, tactical nuke, and that even Kimmie might not want to make so big a device to contaminate a major portion of a small country.)
It seems that since we had indications and warnings of this test that we would be watching pretty closely and would have some idea if boxcars of ANFO were being dumped in a mine, which is why I rated that scenario very low.
I don't know much about fast fourier transforms, but it does seem to me that the explosive velocity of a nuke would be so high that it would have a pretty distinctive seismic signature. I've long since learned that just about any public domain information about nukes is likely to be disinformation, so basing any conclusion based on that information is likely to be a bad conclusion. I've also learned that seismologists always seem to revise event magnitudes by .5 to 1.0 points in the weeks after the event, so I 'm not getting too invested in the 4.5 number just this yet.
#79
Here's what I think _might_ have happened: Kimmie could use not-quite-enriched-enough material in a bomb test, to see if the results from his "physics package" match up what the simulations tell him the yield will be.
This lets him know if his designs are any good, while all the chattering classes can go around talking about how he doesn't really have anything and noone in the west needs to take notice, and by the way have you heard the latest about Mark Foley? OOH, shiny thing! POING, Poing, poing...
#80
I have to say, as a long time lurker, and occasional snarker (with varying degrees of success):) , Rantburgs discussion on this NK topic and many others before it is amongst the best on the Internet. I am constantly amazed at the level of discourse and informed opinion
Bravo.
P.S. I was reading Belmont Club, where Wretchard threw out the "Suit Case" nuke possibility. Anyone here think that is plausible?
North Korea, one of the world's most centrally planned and isolated economies, faces desperate economic conditions. Industrial capital stock is nearly beyond repair as a result of years of underinvestment and shortages of spare parts. Industrial and power output have declined in parallel. Despite an increased harvest in 2005 because of more stable weather conditions, fertilizer assistance from South Korea, and an extraordinary mobilization of the population to help with agricultural production, the nation has suffered its 11th year of food shortages because of on-going systemic problems, including a lack of arable land, collective farming practices, and chronic shortages of tractors and fuel. Massive international food aid deliveries have allowed the people of North Korea to escape mass starvation since famine threatened in 1995, but the population continues to suffer from prolonged malnutrition and poor living conditions. Large-scale military spending eats up resources needed for investment and civilian consumption. In 2004, the regime formalized an arrangement whereby private "farmers markets" were allowed to begin selling a wider range of goods. It also permitted some private farming on an experimental basis in an effort to boost agricultural output. In October 2005, the regime reversed some of these policies by forbidding private sales of grains and reinstituting a centralized food rationing system. In December 2005, the regime confirmed that it intended to carry out earlier threats to terminate all international humanitarian assistance operations in the DPRK (calling instead for developmental assistance only) and to restrict the activities of international and non-governmental aid organizations such as the World Food Program. Firm political control remains the Communist government's overriding concern, which will likely inhibit the loosening of economic regulations.
Industries:
military products; machine building, electric power, chemicals; mining (coal, iron ore, magnesite, graphite, copper, zinc, lead, and precious metals), metallurgy; textiles, food processing; tourism
#82
"...but it does seem to me that the explosive velocity of a nuke would be so high that it would have a pretty distinctive seismic signature."
Up close, within a few km, I think that's indeed the case; but from what I've read (see my comment #30) and what I know of wave propagation as an engineer, the high-frequency components of the seismic wave that would make that distinctive signature detectable don't propagate very well over long distances: after a few km, all that tend to be left are the low-frequency components. So from far away, I should think a nuclear detonation and a non-nuclear detonation would tend to "sound" the same-- especially for small detonations.
I'm keeping an open mind on this, but right now I'm still a bit skeptical of the notion that nuclear and non-nuclear explosions can be distinguished by seismic means alone (other than by the sheer magnitude of the vibrations, in the case of a multi-kiloton nuke).
I know I'm being a pain in the ass about this, but on this particular topic I'm trying very, VERY hard to maintain a clear distinction between a) what I actually know for a fact and b) what I can only suspect.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 17:49 Comments ||
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#83
"P.S. I was reading Belmont Club, where Wretchard threw out the "Suit Case" nuke possibility. Anyone here think that is plausible?"
Nope. Not a beginner's project.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/10/2006 17:51 Comments ||
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#84
Suit case yield? sure. Suit case size? No way. Not out of the starting gate.
I still think Kimmie/Iran are constrained for nuclear material, both for test and production. These could well be designed low yield, high fallout weapons for terrorist use at maximum number of locations in minimum time delivered by container or in al-Q operated ships of which there are reported to be many (dozens). Think about a half dozen or so of these going off in the world's major ports on the same day. The terror effect would be devastating.
#86
I was hearing on Rush today that they are sending results from Okinawa to a lab back in Washington to check for specific decay nuclides that would prove disprove the fact whether Kimmy had nukes.
The tests are supersensitive and have to be done in DC????
#89
While I don't think siesmic analysis can tell the difference between chemical and nuclear explosions for the reason's Dave D outlined. There are other possibilities.
1. Detection of Very Low Frequency(VLF) and Extremly (E)LF E-M waves which do pass through rock. Submarines extending their VLF antenna could see a spike. With 2 subs, the origin can be triangulated.
2. Neutino spike in Japan's Super Kamiokande detector. The detector can also determine the direction of the neutrino flux.
Of course, I have no knowledge if the signals are strong enough to be detected. But correlated with seismic detectors, they would provide conclusive proof. For a fizzle, the EMP would be too weak, but a neutrino flux would still be produced.
Posted by: ed ||
10/10/2006 23:51 Comments ||
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#90
I has also wondered about a neutrino flux as well.
I'll also note that Oldspook dropped by the 'Burg today.
SEOUL: North Korea is believed to have stored up to 40 kilograms of plutonium, enough to make as many as seven nuclear bombs, South Korea's intelligence chief was quoted as saying on Monday. Kim Seung-Gyu, head of the National Intelligence Service, also reportedly told parliament that the North might carry out further nuclear tests following Monday's one. "North Korea is believed to have stored some 30 to 40 kilograms of plutonium," he was quoted as telling parliament's intelligence committee, Chung Hyung-Keun, an opposition Grand National Party lawmaker who serves on the committee, quoted the intelligence chief.
The 40 kilograms includes 10-12 kilograms that it had secured before it opened its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon, 90 kilometres north of Pyongyang, to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, Kim said. "As one bomb needs five to six kilograms of plutonium, North Korea would be able to make up to seven atomic bombs," Chung told journalists. "We cannot rule out the possibility of the North carrying out further nuclear tests as Pakistan, for example, carried out six nuclear tests," he said.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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#1
According to the Pakistani press?
Probably won't be blockaded?
We better blockade them or we will deserve that mushroom cloud overhanging our heads.
Berlin, 10 Oct. (AKI) - German police on Tuesday arrested near the western city of Osnabreuck an Iraqi national suspected of belonging to the al-Qaeda terror network. The 36-year-old man, identified as Ibrahim R. is accused of having over the past two years "spread worldwide over the Internet audio and video messages by the leaders of ... al-Qaida and al-Qaida in Iraq - namely Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and in doing so of having supported these groups in their terrorist activities and aims," prosecutors said in a statement.
The statement gave no further details of Ibrahim R.'s alleged activities and did not specify if he is suspected of posting the video and audio messages to the Web or only have spreading messages already there. It also gave no details of the contents. He is due to appear before a federal judge on Wednesday for a decision on whether he is to be detained pending possible charges of supporting a terrorist organisation.
Posted by: Steve ||
10/10/2006 08:35 ||
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#1
He's a moderate for Pete's sake, let him go. Bring heem to de lab for de water torture.
Law enforcement agencies on Monday arrested a college student in Rawalpindi on suspicions of his involvement in the Ayub Park blast and shifted him to an unidentified location for investigation, Daily Times has learnt. Law enforcement agencies officials were tipped off about a male suspect living in a deserted house near Bhosa Mandi, in the limits of Gunj Mandi Police Station, sources said. Agency officials raided the house and arrested 25-year-old Mohammad Nadeem, a college student, on suspicions of his links with Al Qaeda, they said. Sources said police searched Nadeems family house in Mara Jafer, a slum in the limits of Golra Police Station, and seized some important documents, without mentioning their content.
Law enforcers have termed the arrest a significant headway in the probe into the Ayub Park blast and the recovery of four rockets in Islamabad. However, Syed Murvat Ali Shah, the Rawalpindi police additional inspector general, also a member of the joint investigation team, denied that the police have arrested the student. He claimed that investigators are getting closer to the culprits and will soon arrest them.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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Twenty-five kg RDX was found buried near Sukrala temple in Kishtwar town of Doda district, a few days ahead of its annual festival, Army officials said on Monday. Troops recovered the explosives along with detonators buried in a field near the temple during a sanitisation operation, they said. Security forces were keeping a close watch on the area round-the-clock to ensure that the festival at the shrine complex went incident free, the officials added.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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An alleged mastermind of the Mumbai train bombings has told police that militants once tried to kill the nationalist leader of a western Indian state that was the scene of deadly religious riots, a newspaper reported yesterday.
The Hindustan Times newspaper, citing an interrogation report, said suspected train bomber Faisal Shaikh told investigators his militant group wanted to kill the chief minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi. The plot by Lashkar-e-Taiba - the Pakistan-based group also blamed for July's train bombings in Mumbai - was foiled when police shot and killed the alleged assassin in June 2004, according to the daily.
Gujarat was the scene of India's bloodiest religious violence in recent years when a train fire killed 60 people returning from a religious pilgrimage in 2002. Muslims were blamed for the blaze, and more than 1,000 people were killed by mobs in violence that followed. Human rights groups and Muslims have accused the state government, led by Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, of doing little to stop the violence, and at times even stoking it.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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At least three people were killed and several injured in a clash between two clans of the Bugti tribe in restive Dera Bugti district on Monday. Sources said that members of the Shalwani Bugti sub-tribe had kidnapped two members of the Ferozani sub-tribe. The hostages took the guns of the alleged kidnappers as they were drinking from a pond to break their fast at iftari, and opened fire on them, killing three men at the scene, said the sources. The dead were identified as Abdul Razaq, Bashir Ahmed and Mohammadu. All three belonged to the Shalwani sub-tribe, a local journalist told Daily Times. Dera Bugti District Coordination Officer Abdul Samad Lasi confirmed the three deaths. The identities of the hostages could not be ascertained.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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DNA tests have confirmed that a man shot to death by British forces was a leading al-Qaida militant who embarrassed the U.S. military by making an unprecedented escape from a maximum-security military prison in Afghanistan, the U.S. command said Tuesday.
Omar al-Farouq was shot and killed Sept. 25 after he opened fire on British forces during a raid on his home in Basra, 340 miles southeast of Baghdad.
British forces had said at the time that they had hoped to capture the suspect, but had returned fire on him when he started shooting at them.
"After taking photographs and gathering DNA evidence from the individual, ground forces left the suspected terrorist remains at the site," the U.S. military said. "It was later determined through DNA gathered the individual killed was Omar al-Farouq."
Al-Farouq, who allegedly led al-Qaida's Southeast Asia operations, had slipped into Iraq three months earlier, according to police. It was not known why al-Farouq fled to Iraq, but officials have said he was born in Kuwait to Iraqi parents and may have had roots in the area.
He and three other al-Qaida suspects escaped from Bagram, in central Afghanistan, in July 2005, picking locks and navigating a minefield, then evading a massive manhunt.
The escaped prisoners later appeared in a video sent to the Dubai-based television station Al-Arabiya and boasted of their feat.
The Pentagon waited until November to confirm his escape and the delay upset Indonesia, which had arrested al-Farouq in 2002 and turned him over to the United States.
Al-Farouq has been linked to thwarted plots on U.S. embassies in Southeast Asia, and is alleged to have been a key link between al-Qaida and regional terrorists.
On hearing the initial reports of his death, his Indonesia wife said she almost fainted, but then wondered if the news was true. "I still have faith he is still alive," Mira Agustina told el-Shinta radio at the time.
#1
Feh, Mira's panties are in a wad just at the thought her jihadi havin at those virgins. Psssst, Mira...those are Virginians. He's in "good hands" take mey word.
Posted by: Rex Mundi ||
10/10/2006 19:02 Comments ||
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#2
Mixed among the goat's entrails, the Al-Qaeda DNA remnants. Bow, take a moment, ... laugh!
Gunmen wearing military uniforms assassinated the brother of Iraq's Sunni Arab vice president in his home Monday, the third sibling the official has lost this year to the country's violence.
Also Monday, a car bomb ripped through a market in a Shi'ite district of Baghdad, killing 10 people and wounding 26. Eleven Iraqi soldiers were kidnapped in a brazen attack on a checkpoint in Sadr City, another Shiite district. The US military announced that three Marines died Sunday after fighting in western Anbar province. The deaths brought to 32 the number of American service members who have died in Iraq this month.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 17:31 ||
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The first part of my headline does not budge my 'surprise' meter. Sadly, neither does the second.
11 TERRORISTS KILLED AFTER ATTACKING COMBINED ISF, CF PATROL
DIWANIYAH Iraqi Security and Coalition Forces clashed with terrorists at approximately 6 p.m. Monday in Diwaniyah, near the Al Qaim Mosque, in the Al Chalabia district.
A joint Coalition and Iraqi patrol was conducting a routine movement through the city of Diwaniyah and stopped to speak with IPs at a checkpoint across from the Al Qaim mosque. As the ISF and CF Soldiers were preparing to continue their patrol, two grenades were thrown from the vicinity of the mosque toward their positions.
The Iraqi army soldiers immediately returned fire and killed two terrorists in an alley next to the mosque. Less than a minute after the grenades were thrown, the patrol was attacked by terrorists with small-arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire.
ISF and CF Soldiers immediately repositioned vehicles and returned fire. During the attack, the patrol was fired upon by six to seven enemy fighters dressed as Iraqi policemen. The patrol returned fire and killed six of the terrorists dressed as IPs and heavily damaged a pickup truck with IP markings.
Iraqi Security and Coalition Forces did not enter the mosque. As the patrol departed, a terrorist on the roof of the Al Qaim Mosque fired on the trail vehicle; Soldiers returned fire and killed the terrorist.
The attackers were clearly identified as hostile. During the attack, approximately eleven enemy fighters were killed. A Coalition Forces humvee was damaged by an RPG during the attack and two Coalition Force Soldiers were wounded.
#1
well.... it sounds like the bad guys were next to, and for one dead snuffie, atop the mosque. Why would you destroy it? If they were in it, you could justify shooting it up. Sounds like they did the right thing - destroyed the enemy instead. I'm a little distressed at the uniforms, vehicles....
Posted by: Frank G ||
10/10/2006 9:13 Comments ||
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#2
I have an applicable picture, but how do I put it in my comments box?
I figure the AIF should not get to hide behind the same wall twice, nor shoot from the same high point twice.
However, I'll grant that this is more a political battle than a military one, and 'Hama Rules' would likely not have the desired effect. (We need to co-opt rather than destroy the bulk of AIF for long-term defense against Iran.
#5
Nonetheless, it sounds like the Iraqi Security lads did well in this encounter. We should be proud... and pleased that they'll sooner be able to do such things completely on their own.
#7
Do I add the file directory and name information in between the quotes? Sorry for the ignorance, I've just never added a picture to a comment before. Maybe if someone can email me the way to do it so I don't tie up the thread with my stupidity.
#9
I figure out that there is nothing to figure out. Either we defend ourselves or we get out. This cat and mouse game in Iraq is similar to the stupidity of the war in Lebanon. We have two partners in stupidity Rumsfeld and Olmert..........Al Sadr should have been eliminated as soon as he appeared in the Iraqui horizon. I guess that Sistani saved his skin and our soldiers pay for it with their lives. So now the story is that Al Sadr has rogue members within his tribe he can not control............blanket bomb a couple of square miles in Baghdad, pass quietly the word that this will be our policy, apologize to the press profusedly and explain that the issue will be investigated thoroughly, take the international heat, and see things calm down. This is a very peculiar game we are playing and I do not think that Rumsy knows what he is doing.Actually I think he is incompetent...........
#10
note - in this case "Iraqi Security Forces" were Iraqi army. My impression is that Iraqi army is willing to take on the Sadrists, but that Iraqi police are still heavily infiltrated by Sadrists and other Shiite militias. Are all Iraqi army units reliable against Sadrists, or was this a specially selected unit? Would they remain reliable if Sadr openly opposed the action?
These are key questions, as the willingness and ability of the Iraqi state to clamp down on the Sadrists may well determine the success of the entire mission.
An Islamic Jihad operative was caught near Nur a-Shams Refugee Camp east of Tulkarm on Monday night. Security forces have taken the man in for questioning. Earlier Monday evening, Palestinians shot at a passing Israeli car near Kafr Asawiya north of Ramallah. No casualties were reported.
On Monday afternoon the IDF killed a Palestinian man who was carrying a rocket launcher. The man was targeted as he approached a field in northern Gaza where terrorists launched rockets at Israel, the army said. Palestinian officials said the man killed was Mahmoud Abu Nasser, 23. Five others were wounded in the strike, officials said.
A Palestinian security official said a surface to surface missile hit a group of people carrying out suspicious activity in the area of Beit Lahiya, in the northern Gaza Strip. The official did not elaborate to what type of suspicious activity he was referring. The missile landed near a house causing damage, the official said.
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Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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IDF soldiers shot a Palestinian at the Hawara checkpoint outside of Nablus on Monday. The IDF said the man tried to attack the soldiers with a knife when they shot him. The condition of the Palestinian was unclear.
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10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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#1
"M'lud, my client attacked at least two soldiers with a knife. Therefore I am submitting a plea of insanity."
Posted by: Tony (UK) ||
10/10/2006 2:00 Comments ||
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#2
One word: twat.
Posted by: Howard UK ||
10/10/2006 3:59 Comments ||
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The IDF killed a Palestinian operative on Monday who had a rocket launcher as he approached a field in northern Gaza from where rockets were launched at Sderot on Saturday. Palestinian officials said the man killed was Mahmoud Abu Nasser, 23. The officials added that five others were wounded in the strike. A Palestinian security official said a surface-to-surface missile hit the group of people in the area of Beit Lahiya.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/10/2006 00:00 ||
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A Palestinian man was killed and four others were seriously injured when the Israeli army shelled a house in Beit Hanoun area northern Gaza Strip on Monday, local radio stations said. A missile launched by an Israeli war jet struck a house near Beit Hanoun's bridge, the radio said. Special protection vehicles and ambulances rushed to the house and moved all five to the hospital, added the sources.
In other developments, two Palestinians were shot and were slightly injured by the Israeli army in Johr Al-Deek area to the southeast of Gaza today, according to Palestinian medical sources. They were taken to Al-Aqsa martyr hospital for further treatment, added the sources. Earlier today a mentally disabled Palestinian, was shot and seriously injured by the Israeli army in Beit Lahya north Gaza, medical sources said.
1,300 years after decisive Battle of Tours, Muslims still wonder why they lost
TOURS, France Frederic Guesdon won the 100th edition of the Paris-Tours classic on Sunday. The picturesque valley where cyclists whooshed uphill toward their prize no longer bears the scars of the ferocious Battle of Tours. But in this valley, Oct. 10, A.D. 732, Frankish chieftains and Gallic forces led by Charles Martel defended their homeland from Abd-er-Rahman and his Muslim raiders.
Nearby in the same river valley, Ségolène Royal moves closer to becoming the first woman president of France. A contender for the French Socialist Party's nomination, Royal makes her home in the now peaceful city of Poitiers where Martel dealt the decisive blow to the invading Moors. If elected president, Royal will face the reality of Muslim jihad 2007.
Historians calculate that the Umayyad Caliphate that met its match at the Battle of Tours was the mightiest military power on earth in the year 732. That the defeat occurred during Ramadan, the Islamic holy days, still rankles many Muslims.
A Muslim website devoted to the restoration of the Caliphate, or Islamic empire, features a recollection of the Battle of Tours for this week of Ramadan,
Clearly Allah (swt) has blessed the believers with many victories in the past in the blessed month of Ramadhan The conquests deeper into France were continued by Abdur Rahman, who even captured Bordeaux, Lyon, Sens and finally Tours. But it was at Tours where a reversal of fortune began for the Muslims. In Ramadhan 732 CE the Islamic army was defeated by the Frankish army led by Charles Martel. The causes for the Muslims defeat here though could be linked to glaring internal problems including emerging rivalries between Berber and Arab factions and the immense booty they were carrying from earlier successes in southern France, which limited their manoeuvrability.
The Web-savvy Muslim who hosts this site may have drawn his conclusion from Arab chroniclers of the time:
Near the river Owar (Loire River) the two great hosts of the two languages and the two creeds were set in array against each other. The hearts of Abderrahman, his captains and his men were filled with wrath and pride, and they were the first to begin to fight. The Muslim horsemen dashed fierce and frequent forward against the battalions of the Franks, who resisted manfully, and many fell dead on either side, until the going down of the sun. Night parted the two armies: but in the grey of the morning the Muslims returned to the battle. Their cavaliers had soon hewn their way into the center of the Christian host. But many of the Muslims were fearful for the safety of the spoil which they had stored in their tents, and a false cry arose in their ranks that some of the enemy were plundering the camp; whereupon several squadrons of the Muslim horsemen rode off to protect their tents.
Cyber chatter recalling crucial battles of 1,300 years ago has grown with the recent declassification of al-Qaida documents, including those recovered after the June 2006 air strike that killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. That document indicates that al-Qaida senses its failures are compounding, that they are losing ground against the U.S. and allied forces in the War on Terror.
Iraqi National Security Adviser Muwaffaq al-Rabi released a letter from an al-Qaida leader to al-Zarqawi on Sept. 18.
The document contains strong expressions of anxiety and doubt: "The path is long and difficult the enemy isn't easy, for he is great and numerous, and he can take quite a bit of punishment" and, al-Qaida fighters are "weak, and we ask God that He strengthen them and mend their fractures."
Fractures exist across the spectrum of Islamic groups. Muslim proponents of a restoration of the Khilafah (Caliphate) urge solidarity among the branches of Islam. Particular focus falls upon the Sunni sect that has called for the reestablishment of Islamic law as the rule of all Muslim nations. Kemal Ataturk established modern (secular) Turkey in 1924 when he abolished Islamic law as the law of the nation. As Turkey prepares to receive Pope Benedict XVI for his scheduled November visit, radical Islamic groups ratchet up the rhetoric against any meaningful dialog with the "Crusaders." Christian victories in Europe, such as the Battle of Lepanto (October 7) and the Battle of Tours (October 10th) still rub raw the visions of Caliphate held by modern jihadis.
Niall Ferguson, an Oxford trained historian, notes that his predecessor of 1794, historian Edward Gibbon, author of "The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" observed that had Charles Martel lost the Battle of Tours, minarets would some day loom over Oxford University. Ferguson laments that the prediction will, oddly, come true. The opening of a massive Saudi financed Islamic Studies center will open in Oxford in 2007. Its minaret is 108 feet high.
While Muslim radicals urge their followers to purify themselves so that Allah will give them victory over the world and reestablish the Caliphate, some modern-minded Christians dismiss the idea that God "takes sides." In Portsmouth, N.H., a weekly church bulletin scorns the idea that the Christian victory at the Battle of Lepanto was due to heaven's intervention: "The notion that God is clearly on one side or another in wars and political struggles strikes many contemporary people, including most Christians, as dangerous." Another cleric suggested that what was more dangerous was a "Man of God who did not believe God gave Joshua the city of Jericho, or defended the Christians at the Battle of Tours."
Ninth century scribes interpreted the victory at Tours as divine intervention. They are the source for the moniker "Martel" meaning "The Hammer" a play on the name of the Biblical Judas Maccabeus (The "Hammerer") whose victory over the Syrians was attributed to God.
In the third century St. Gatien brought Christianity to the river valley of modern-day Tours and Poitiers. By the fourth century St. Martin of Tours had gathered Christian leaders into an important religious center. In 732 Charles Martel repulsed the Muslims from Poitiers as his grandson, Charlemagne, would do again a generation afterwards.
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1,300 years after decisive Battle of Tours, Muslims still wonder why they lost
Niall Ferguson, an Oxford trained historian, notes that his predecessor of 1794, historian Edward Gibbon, author of "The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" observed that had Charles Martel lost the Battle of Tours, minarets would some day loom over Oxford University. Ferguson laments that the prediction will, oddly, come true. The opening of a massive Saudi financed Islamic Studies center will open in Oxford in 2007. Its minaret is 108 feet high. 
Ninth century scribes interpreted the victory at Tours as divine intervention. They are the source for the moniker "Martel" meaning "The Hammer" a play on the name of the Biblical Judas Maccabeus (The "Hammerer") whose victory over the Syrians was attributed to God. 
