Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Korrespondent] Russia's summer offensive will return to the 2024 scenario, focusing on Donbass but affecting at least three more regions.
The Russian army is preparing for a large-scale summer offensive, foreign publications and experts warn. The attack, according to their forecasts, could begin as early as June.
The first attempts at ground operations will likely be preceded by a campaign of missile attacks. Read more about the forecasts in the story.
WHAT AREAS ARE AT RISK?
German expert Niko Lange told Bild that Russia could launch a new large-scale offensive in Ukraine as early as June. According to him, three regions would be under threat – Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk.
The expert notes that the Kremlin has long been planning this offensive, "which is now beginning," despite talk of peace talks. According to the expert, the Russian dictator "never had the goal of concluding a truce."
Today, May 30, Stanislav Bunyatov, known by the call sign "Osman", junior sergeant, squad leader of the 24th assault battalion Aidar, in his Telegram channel Govorut sniper+ partially confirms Lange's forecast.
As the military man writes, along the entire border line of the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russians daily saturate their units with reserves and conduct continuous assault work. In most cases, they try to make "punctures" in the defense line, after which they expand them. From the southern flank, they are actively trying to enter Komar and Alekseyevka, Osman notes.
"The front is moving from village to village, since there are no defensive lines in the forest belts here," he adds.
It should be noted that political scientist Vadim Denisenko also believes that during the summer offensive Putin plans to reach the right bank of the Dnieper.
HOW EVENTS MAY DEVELOP
The Financial Times warns that the first stage of Russia's stepped-up ground operations will be accompanied by large-scale air strikes on Ukrainian territory. A key indicator of readiness: Russia is now producing more missiles than it uses, building up the capacity for powerful strikes.
Defense expert and head of the New Geopolitics Research Network platform Mykhailo Samus says the current summer offensive will be a repeat of the 2024 campaign, but with some changes in conditions and effectiveness, in particular due to Ukraine's growing defense capability and support from the West.
"Russia's summer offensive is an absolute copy of 2024. The only difference is that after the Ukrainian invasion near Kursk, it became much more difficult for Russian troops to operate in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions," the expert noted in an interview with Ukrinform .
According to the expert, as in the past year, the Kremlin is attacking the northern regions of Ukraine to distract and exhaust the defense forces. At the same time, the aggressor's main goal remains unchanged - the complete occupation of Donbass. Therefore, the enemy's main efforts will be concentrated near Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Liman.
In his opinion, the enemy's advance in the Sumy region or in the direction of Kharkov is ineffective and too costly. The maximum that the enemy managed to achieve was an insignificant advance of several kilometers without any strategic or political effect.
PESSIMISTIC AND OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOS
The New York Times writes that the Kremlin's summer offensive is already underway. The publication, citing military analysts, notes that the Russian army began its breakthrough attempt in May.
The Russians used the winter lull to build up equipment reserves, improve combat communications, and refine the tactics and technical capabilities of attack drones.
Some Western analysts say Putin may be using the summer season to maximise his negotiating power before adding more weight to talks later this year.
"Russia has become accustomed to the idea of fighting and talking at the same time," said Samuel Charap, a senior Washington-based political scientist who specializes in Russia at the RAND Corporation.
Despite some local successes on the front, the pace of Russia's advance remains slow, and few analysts expect it to achieve a decisive victory this summer that would change the course of the war, the newspaper adds.
At the same time, the US think tank Atlantic Council believes that unless the West takes swift action by sending military aid, increasing sanctions and reaffirming its long-term commitment to Ukraine, the Russian offensive will undermine Ukraine's military efforts.
"Current Russian troop movements and battlefield dynamics suggest that the upcoming summer offensive could be one of the largest and most ambitious of the entire war," the center's experts note.
If successful, the campaign is predicted to allow Russian forces to push the front line dozens of kilometers into Ukrainian-held territory and seize parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The cities of Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, and Kramatorsk are on the list of likely targets.
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