[Jpost] Iran expert Dr. Sharona Mazalian Levi says prolonged water outages, empty reservoirs, and crop failures may be a recipe for social unrest.
"Iran is drying up," Dr. Sharona Mazalian Levi from The Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University affirmed, painting a grim picture of what she described as one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing the Islamic Republic today.
"Iran is facing an unprecedented water crisis that threatens the nation’s stability," Mazalian Levi said. She explained that multiple factors have converged to create this critical situation, with several major provinces now reaching what she deemed "a tipping point."
According to Mazalian Levi, the Iranian Energy Ministry declared last week that the provinces of Tehran, Isfahan, Razavi Khorasan, and Yazd are facing a severe water crisis. She highlighted the alarming state of the Karaj Dam, which supplies water to millions in Tehran and the surrounding areas.
"The Karaj Dam is now at only 6% of its capacity," she noted, referencing reports from Tasnim news agency that 94% of the reservoir is empty. "This isn’t just an environmental issue; it’s a potential catalyst for civil unrest and disorder that could lead to national instability."
Two of the main catalysts for the crisis are what Mazalian Levi named "poor management of the water sector," as well as a population growth of more than 250% in only 50 years. "This includes over-extraction from natural water sources and aquifers to the point of depletion," she added.
However, Mazalian Levi traced the origins of the crisis further back in history. According to the researcher, following the 1979 revolution, Iran found itself internationally isolated and was forced to develop an autarkic economic system. Religious leaders, including then-supreme leader Ruhollah Khomeini, encouraged citizens to embrace farming and agriculture as a way of life, drawing from texts regarding the Prophet Muhammad himself.
"This agricultural push significantly increased water usage at a time when the country was still relying on outdated and inefficient irrigation technologies," she explained. "Simultaneously, Iran experienced tremendous population growth, from approximately 37 million on the eve of the revolution to around 90 million today."
Mazalian Levi also pointed out that the influx of millions of undocumented Afghani migrants has further strained resources, creating an exponential rise in demand for water. Urban migration has compounded the problem, with rural residents moving to major cities like Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj, placing even greater pressure on urban water supplies.
"The most important river in Afghanistan, the Helmand, flows into Iran," Mazalian Levi explained.
"According to a 1973 agreement, the Afghans pledged to transfer around 820 million cubic meters of water to neighboring Iran yearly (with an option to lower the quantities in case of water scarcity). However, recently, the Afghan government violated the agreement and blocked the flow to the Islamic Republic, which intensified the already tense relations between the Shi’ite and Sunni neighbors," the Iran expert added.
| No doubt the Talibs considered that agreement a kind of hudna, or else it was something the previous government agreed to, to which the Talibs could not possibly consider themselves bound… at any rate, as the clearly superior variety of the Master Religion, they necessarily do whatever they think to get away with. |
...The consequences of these developments are being felt across Iranian society. Mazalian Levi described a dire situation where authorities deliberately cut off water supply lines, often for extended periods and without prior notice.
"People are left with murky water and even mud coming out of their taps," she said, citing video evidence from the city of Ahvaz. "Water tankers are being dispatched across the country, medical teams find themselves preparing for surgery without water, and household activities are disrupted without warning."
...The agricultural sector has been hit particularly hard. Farmers are being forced to abandon water-intensive crops like wheat and rice in favor of varieties more suited to drought conditions. Many are giving up farming altogether and migrating to cities in search of alternative employment.
"Crop variety is shrinking, and the country’s food security is being undermined," Mazalian Levi warned. "There are real shortages of fruits, vegetables, legumes, grains, and oils, leading to rising food prices and increased dependence on imported food."
This dependence is especially problematic given the hyperinflation Iran has experienced in recent years, making imported food prices increasingly volatile and unaffordable for many Iranians.
In short. Iran's rulers are desperate - which makes them very dangerous.
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