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2025-02-19 Arabia
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Not Just the Houthis: Iran Negotiating on Yemen in the Shadow of the Ukrainian Track
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently met with representatives of Yemen’s loyalist “Salvation Government” in Oman. The meeting went largely unnoticed amid other major international events, such as the Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia and the Munich Security Conference. However, it marks an important shift in securing areas of influence in Yemen.
In addition, we are talking about Iran’s attempt to take advantage of the pause in the confrontation with Israel and conduct a careful audit of the “Axis of Resistance” and its adjacent “superstructures.”
YEMENI RESCUERS
Yemen's "Salvation Government," formed in 2016, was essentially a tactical alliance between the pro-Iranian Ansar Allah (Houthis) movement and other opponents of the Saudi-loyal regime of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
Despite the fact that the Houthis played the leading role in this alliance, at various times forces loyal to the UAE, Turkey and even Saudi Arabia joined in. Although Abu Dhabi and Riyadh consistently supported Hadi's supporters in their attempts to defeat the rebel government.
In September 2023, shortly before the crisis in the Gaza Strip, the "Salvation Government" was officially dissolved by the Houthis - although all of its ministers retained their portfolios and influence in the territories controlled by Ansar Allah. The balance of interests between representatives of different ideological currents was also maintained, despite protests from individual Houthi functionaries.
This “goodwill gesture” was aimed at activating the inter-Yemeni settlement that had begun a year earlier. There was hope that some representatives of the “rebellious provinces” (at least those not directly associated with the Houthis) would join the expanded Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).
But due to internal disagreements, the process of agreeing on candidates was delayed, and with the onset of the crisis in Gaza in October 2023, it came to naught altogether.
TRUSTED BRAND
Despite its dissolution in late 2023, the Salvation Government continued to periodically make its presence felt by meeting with Iranian officials. Its delegates even took part (along with the Houthis and Hezbollah) in the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
There were also attempts to conduct shuttle negotiations with Saudi and Turkish partners in an attempt to spur the stalled inter-Yemeni settlement.
It should be noted that official Tehran almost never brought contacts with the "Salvation Government" to the public plane, preferring to put the Houthis, the "punishing sword" of the pro-Iranian "Resistance Axis", in the foreground. The government played the role of "diplomatic extras", following in the wake of the policy of "Ansar Allah".
However, the situation gradually began to change in the opposite direction - and at the instigation of Iran.
Tehran fears that Israel will soon try to escalate the situation in the Gaza Strip again, citing the "inflexibility of Hamas." Especially since the Republican administration of the United States, unlike the Democrats, does not object to preemptive forceful actions in the enclave. And in some places, it even pushes official Tel Aviv to quickly resolve the crisis.
In such conditions, the Yemeni Houthis remain the only combat-ready unit capable of really drawing some of Tel Aviv’s attention. The other proxies – be it the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Palestinian Hamas – still need time to recover and regroup.
But Iran does not want to throw Ansar Allah into the attack at the first opportunity - the risk of US intervention in the conflict is too great. Washington has all the necessary resources to carry out a quick operation, and Iranian strategists are not ready to put a large proxy asset in the region at stake.
Moreover, such an action will most likely be met with understanding by the UN, especially after the incident with the capture and murder of an employee of the UN mission in Yemen by the Houthis.
At the same time, it is important for Tehran to demonstrate its commitment to the spirit of the inter-Yemeni settlement and thereby neutralize the temptation of the Arabian monarchies to support the military ambitions of individual hawks from the PRS by forcing the Houthis to fight on the ground.
Iran’s current attempts to publicly “separate” the Houthis and the “Salvation Government” on the political arena are aimed precisely at, on the one hand, preserving the “Axis of Resistance” in its current form, and on the other, providing conditions for negotiations with other Yemeni factions and their external partners.
ASSEMBLY POINT
The choice of location for the official meeting of Iranian officials and representatives of the "Salvation Government" is not accidental. Oman not only remains a key mediator in the negotiations between Yemeni factions, but also serves as a "relay" of the position of other Arabian monarchies that were previously involved in the conflict.
All agreements reached in Muscat are the collective brainchild of the participants in the settlement, even if only some of them are visibly present at the negotiations.
In addition, Oman also acts as a link in the behind-the-scenes dialogue between the US and Iran. And the meeting between Araghchi and Yemen's "Salvation Government" would hardly have taken place without the consent of the White House.
Moreover, with the arrival of Donald Trump, the “Omani negotiating line” between Washington and Tehran has once again become fully operational, and American diplomats are monitoring every diplomatic gesture by Tehran.
One gets the impression that Tehran sees the ultimate goal of its work as turning the “Salvation Government” into a Yemeni analogue of “Hezbollah” – with the full inclusion of pro-Iranian forces in the governance of a single country, but with the preservation of its own combat and mobilization potential.
Even if this means distancing ourselves from the Ansar Allah brand and sacrificing some of our political capital.
And the “Salvation Government” in this sense can be considered an “intermediate stage” in the reform of Yemeni assets.
While other external players, including the US, apparently do not object to such a transformation. Including against the background of the fact that the previously formed PRS has driven itself into a dead end and plunged into inter-factional squabbles.
And the timing for reforms has been well chosen: the public’s attention is entirely occupied by the “Ukrainian meetings” in Riyadh, and almost no one cares about the reshuffle in Yemen.
If all goes well, Iran will be able to integrate a broad group of loyalists (not just Ansar Allah functionaries) into Yemeni state institutions, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be able to avoid the disintegration of a single country into a warring North and South. And the United States will receive a signal of Tehran’s willingness to work toward regional détente.
The only question is whether Iran itself will not consider such a peculiar strategic move by the Pezeshkian government as a “sale” of the last independent asset of the “Axis of Resistance” to the country’s enemies.
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Posted by badanov 2025-02-19 00:00||
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