Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[KavkazUzel] Options for cooperation with Syria were voiced by Ramzan Kadyrov as part of a PR campaign by the Russian authorities, who are trying to save face after the fall of the Assad regime, analysts said.
As reported by the " Caucasian Knot ", on December 16, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, outlined the idea of cooperation with the "new authorities of Syria" in order to "prevent a humanitarian catastrophe" in Syria. He proposed excluding the group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham"*, which seized power in Syria, from the Russian list of terrorist organizations and sending Chechen security forces to that country to "patrol the streets" and transfer "experience and knowledge to the Syrian police."
On December 1, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* group forced Syrian government troops to leave Aleppo, which had been controlled by President Bashar al-Assad's army since 2016. On the night of December 8, armed opposition fighters entered Damascus. Assad left the presidency and left the country. Sources reported that he and his family arrived in Moscow. By December 15, the situation in Aleppo had stabilized, and the city's residents had returned to peaceful life.
Ramzan Kadyrov's statement was commented on to the "Caucasian Knot" by political scientist and orientalist, author of the Telegram channel "Nerusskiy" Rinat Mukhametov, orientalist and political analyst Harun Sidorov, as well as Turkish journalist and political scientist Salman Niyazi.
Russia's statement through Ramzan Kadyrov about its readiness to cooperate with the new Syrian government, patrol Syrian streets and remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* from the list of terrorists is an element of a PR campaign that has little to do with real life, Rinat Mukhametov believes.
"This is more of a propaganda campaign. The issue of Russian bases has more real grounds, but I don't think that in the long term they have any chance of staying there, including with Turkey's participation. Russia will be allowed to leave, saving face, so as not to complicate relations with the new authorities and Turkey itself. The issue of Russian bases will develop precisely in this vein," he said.
Mukhametov ruled out any anti-Israeli military activity by the new Syria in the near future. "They are interested in preserving the country, and they do not need conflicts with those who are obviously stronger, and in a confrontation with whom they will simply be destroyed.
| Hopefully HTS will indeed be that wise. |
Hamas itself expressed support and understanding of this situation, especially since Hamas has not been based in Syria for a long time - in recent years, its centers were in Qatar and Turkey. Therefore, Syria has not been so important for it for a long time," the orientalist believes.
THIS WILL NOT AFFECT REFUGEES IN THE CAUCASUS
Relations with the new government will not affect the attitude of the Russian and Chechen authorities to refugees in the Caucasus, as well as the situation of Palestinian refugees in Syria itself, the expert believes. "This will not affect refugees in the Caucasus - this is a parallel process. As for the Palestinians, I think the situation with the refugees will not change - they will remain in Syria," Mukhametov said.
In October 2023, the Muslims of the North Caucasus reacted sharply to the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Refugees from Palestine began to arrive in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. A year later, more than 200 refugees from the Gaza Strip lived in Chechnya, and a Palestinian national and cultural autonomy was created in the republic.
KADYROV'S STATEMENTS ARE PART OF THE POLITICAL BEHAVIOR THAT MODERN GROZNY IS DEMONSTRATING
Speaking about Turkey's reaction to the possible presence of Russian forces in Syria in the person of Kadyrov's men, Rinat Mukhametov called the presence of any conflict of interest in this issue minimal. "In Turkey, no one takes the presence of Kadyrov's men seriously. No one will raise this issue, stir it up or react. Kadyrov's statements are part of the political behavior that modern Grozny is demonstrating, nothing more," he said.
The preservation of the Russian presence in Syria can be called a negative development of the situation, but such a possibility is not excluded, believes Harun Sidorov. "It is impossible to completely exclude such a possibility. Although it should be noted that the statements that this is a settled issue may be a kind of information operation of Russian propaganda. This is intended to sweeten the pill and, so to speak, save face - to the extent that it is possible for them. Especially considering that they have largely lost it in Syria, where the fall of the Assad regime is undoubtedly a huge defeat for Russia and Putin personally. Therefore, it is possible that these conversations, even if the issue is not resolved, are intended to create the impression that "not all is lost" and that these two bases, for which they allegedly fought, will remain. Russia is trying to present the situation as if it came out with minimal losses," the orientalist said.
According to him, the new Syrian authorities "may decide to temporarily or limitedly retain Russian bases for reasons of playing on checks and balances between external players." "Statements have been made [in Syria] that Russia will be given the opportunity to "reset relations." It is possible that such a decision will be made temporarily, so that Russia can save face, although this will not correspond to reality. Technically, it is clear that the withdrawal of equipment and infrastructure takes time," said Harun Sidorov.
VIEWING RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO ISRAEL IS NAIVE
Turkey's role, according to the expert, could be that of a mediator in this matter. "It could indeed play a mediating role in the negotiations. It is difficult to say on what basis the bases could remain - supposedly as a counterweight to Israel. But it is absolutely obvious that Russia and Israel have established behind-the-scenes interaction and coordination on key issues for Israel. It is naive to consider Russian military bases as a counterweight to Israel: in all this time, except for voting on declarations in the UN, Russia has done nothing that would really threaten Israel. The Russian presence can be explained by anything, but not by a real confrontation with Israel," Sidorov noted.
At the same time, Ankara’s interests are more obvious and are aimed at both resolving the Kurdish issue and interacting with the Syrian democratic forces and maneuvering in relations with the West, he said.
"Theoretically, we cannot rule out a scenario in which Turkey would benefit from preserving the Russian bases in exchange for something, and it would ask the new Syrian authorities to meet them halfway. However, this is not obvious, especially considering the contacts of the new Syrian authorities with the British leadership after the visit of Turkish Defense Minister Hakan Fidan. Turkey has normal relations with Britain, and if the British influence the situation, preserving the Russian bases will become unlikely," Sidorov predicted.
In his opinion, there are no grounds for changing the situation with Palestinian refugees in Russia in connection with the change of power in Syria. These are "different cases," Harun Sidorov explained. "The reception of Palestinian refugees, including Muslim regions of the Russian Federation, remains part of Russia's reputational policy in the Islamic world and a means of its "positioning as a defender of the Palestinians."
| Defending the Palestinians against who? You have already stated that Russia will not stand against Israel. And Russia certainly is not going to defend the Palestinians against HTS, the new rulers of Syria. |
There is no logical connection with the change of power in Syria in this context. However, given the lack of logic in Russian policy, nothing can be ruled out in principle," he said.
The attitude of the new Syrian authorities to the Palestinian issue will be two-tiered, the expert noted. “Ideologically, the Syrian authorities are certainly on the side of the Palestinians. Julani [Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani] himself said that the mujahideen should strive to come to Jerusalem.
| Interesting. Hezbollah has been describing those killed by the IDF post 10/23/2023 as having died on the road to Jerusalem… |
At the same time, HTS* [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] and Julani are demonstrating a patient strategy for the long term. After the fall of Aleppo, when full-scale military actions froze, HTS tacitly observed a ceasefire. Then they needed a break and a reboot, and this allowed them to return to solving strategic tasks. Israel is a more serious factor than the Assad regime. If it took time to strengthen relations with Assad, then with Israel this task is many times more difficult. Therefore, the new Syrian authorities will avoid being drawn into a confrontation with Israel, which now could be suicidal. The Israeli leadership, however, is doing a lot to provoke Syria into conflict, but so far the new government has not given in to this,” Sidorov said.
The analyst ruled out the possibility of military activity by Palestinian groups in Syria. "The priority of the new government now is to establish itself as a state, strengthen itself, and restore the army and infrastructure. This follows from the statements of Julani, who emphasizes the need to think like a state, not like an opposition. Thus, the new Syria will avoid being drawn into a military confrontation with Israel, especially given that HTS* does not control the entire country. There are unresolved issues in relations with the Syrian National Army, Turkey, the Kurds, and the Druze. This process will be difficult, and only after Syria is strengthened as a state will it be possible to assess the prospects for decisive action, including on the Palestinian issue," Sidorov concluded.
Russian military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim play an important role in ensuring Russia's interests in Africa, but their future remains in question, says Salman Niyazi. "Considering the importance of two ports in Syria - Tartus and Khmeimim - for ensuring interests in Africa, it seems logical that Russia would like to preserve its bases there by all possible means... It is clear that negotiations and contacts are underway regarding their continued presence, but this fate seems unclear," he said.
According to him, the Russian military presence "remains a symbol of Moscow's bloody past" in the Syrian conflict. "Russian bases there serve as a reminder of support for Assad, who destroyed his cities, bombed Aleppo, including [with the support] of the Russian Aerospace Forces," the political scientist noted.
This is an attempt to build bridges using the Muslim factor. And this bridge is Kadyrov.
Russia's attempts to use Chechen security forces to demonstrate cooperation with the new Syria are more likely political manipulation, Niyazi believes. "What patrolling can offer is an attempt to build bridges using the Muslim factor. And this bridge is Kadyrov. It is no secret that the Russian Federation has tried to do this more than once, for example, in the case of the UAE, or when Chechen servicemen under Assad patrolled in Syria. But the possibility of their appearance there is extremely small," he added.
The military police battalion was first sent from Chechnya to Syria in December 2016. Military police from Chechnya accompanied humanitarian convoys in Syria, patrolled territories and guarded facilities.
Turkey takes a balanced position on the Syrian issue and continues to pursue a pragmatic policy, Niyazi believes. "Turkey is monitoring the possibility of Russia's presence there and is trying to pursue a balanced policy, not wanting to offend anyone. As Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said, they are trying to establish a dialogue so that there are no losers in the region," the political scientist emphasized.
The Syrian government needs two things now - money and recognition.
In his opinion, the further preservation of Russian bases in Syria faces the question of their expediency for the new Syrian government. "The question remains: what can the Russian Federation offer the new leadership in return, what leverage does it have? Under Assad, it was the guarantor of his survival, but now Russia is bogged down in the Ukrainian conflict. It will not be possible to increase military supplies, and the lifting of sanctions against Syria by the West depends on the withdrawal of Russian bases... The new Syrian government now needs two things - money and recognition from the international community. Russia cannot provide either one. Rather, on the contrary, it can complicate the achievement of these goals," the expert explained.
At the same time, cooperation between Russia and Turkey, in his opinion, will smooth out possible disagreements. "The presence of the Russian Federation in Syria is not a problem for Turkey. In addition to the immediate proximity of Russian bases on the border with Turkey in Armenia, a joint monitoring center in Aghdam, Ankara and Moscow have experience of interaction within the framework of the Astana process. Therefore, for Turkey, the presence of Russia nearby will not be a strong irritant, the parties have experience of interaction," Niyazi noted.
The new Syrian government is not enthusiastic about the Russian presence, the political scientist claims. "From official statements, the representative of HTS*, Ubeida Arnaout, stated that Russia should reconsider its presence and interests in Syria," Niyazi recalled.
As for the Palestinian issue, the new Syrian regime will avoid confrontation with Israel, the expert is sure. "HTS leader* Julani said that they are not going to conflict with anyone, since they have just emerged from a bloody civil war. Their main task is to collect the torn economy, and Syria will not aggravate the situation with Israel," Niyazi said.
He also noted that HTS* will not become a transit route for arming Palestinian groups. "Support may only be in words, but it will not reach the practical level now," he said.
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