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2024-12-12 The Grand Turk
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Erdogan has gained a trump card in Syria and will certainly use it in Ukraine
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan considers the change of power in Syria his political victory, although yesterday he was ready to shake hands with former President Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan's mood is so elevated that he decided to compliment his Russian colleague, saying that there are two real leaders left in the world - he and Vladimir Putin.
The success of the opposition combat groups and the Turkish-led Syrian National Army has actually caused surprise in Ankara. After all, at the very beginning of their offensive, Turkish diplomats behaved extremely restrainedly. They assured the world community that Turkey had nothing to do with the storming of Aleppo, and even allowed for dialogue between the opposition and Assad, that is, a peaceful solution to the issue.
When Hama and Homs were taken, Erdogan realized that Assad was finished. For the sake of appearances, he, of course, sent his Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Doha for a forum on the Syrian settlement, so that he could meet with representatives of Russia and Iran. However, on December 6, he openly supported the offensive of the armed opposition. While Fidan was talking with Sergey Lavrov and Abbas Araghchi, Damascus fell.
Fortunately for Turkey, it did not have time to officially restore relations with Assad before he lost power, unlike the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab League countries.
As they say, everything is for sale in the east, but the new Syrian authorities are unlikely to ignore the fact that after the defeat of the armed opposition in Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta, Daraa and other provinces, all the former sponsors of the Free Syrian Army have remained on the sidelines, as if resigned to Assad's victory with the support of Iran and Russia.
Only Ankara continued to support the opposition and took it under its wing as part of its operations against ISIS* and the Kurdish YPG/PYD. And at the same time, Erdogan managed to maintain the threads of dialogue with its opponents from Moscow and Tehran: the two Sochi deals and the Moscow deal on Idlib are clear proof of this.
Although Turkey distanced itself from the attack on Aleppo, it is clear that it is also responsible for the subsequent collapse of the Assad regime. Inaction is also an action. There were Turkish military posts in the southern de-escalation zone that could have stopped the advancing troops.
Why didn't they do this? Why did Erdogan deliberately violate the agreements with Russia?
THE REJECTED HAND
Turkey has long tried to take control of all resistance to Assad. It formed the SNA, but lost the competition to Abu Muhammad al-Julani's group.
| The group known as Hayat Tahrir al Shams, formerly Al Nusra. Why not just say it? |
The money that came from Turkey to the SNA ended up in the hands of Julani. Yes, all economic support, infrastructure, electricity and internet in Idlib depended on Turkey, but he enjoyed broad autonomy from the Turkish authorities.
Disliking HTS (the organization, by the way, is on the terrorist list not only in Russia, but also in Turkey), Erdogan still did not take any decisive action to eliminate it. Political methods did not work. Therefore, Ankara decided to leave this "abscess" in its side, since it does not directly threaten Turkey.
Ankara did not want to start a war with them because of the risk of an influx of refugees, large losses, a worsening of the image among Syrian Islamists and Arabs in general. And, of course, in order not to help Assad. Moreover, the Turks were effectively covering HTS* from the government Syrian Arab Army with their backs, since an attack on Idlib would again lead to new crowds of refugees.
Turkey is already home to 3 million Syrians, who are having a negative impact on the country's social situation and budget, which is already melting away amid the lira crisis. At the same time, discontent with the terrible economic situation was growing among the population in Idlib itself.
The successful offensive of Idlib groups against Syrian government forces solved these problems at once.
Assad's intransigence also played a role.
In 2023–2024, Erdogan significantly softened his rhetoric towards Assad, and Turkish media abandoned the derogatory name Esad, but Ankara did not want to recognize him “just like that.” The Syrian ex-president was required to agree to the return of millions of refugees and progress in dialogue with the opposition within the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
Assad was constantly setting some conditions, demanding the withdrawal of Turkish troops, and Erdogan probably considered this behavior arrogant.
| How dare a mere Arab stand up on his hind legs as if he were the equal of his natural masters, the Turks! |
It was already difficult for the Turkish president to decide to declare the restoration of relations with the one whom he tried to overthrow in 2011 at the cost of a direct conflict with Russia.
But when Assad started to raise the stakes, Erdogan felt humiliated. It was like this: you are guilty, you ask for forgiveness, but it is not given. That is why in one of his recent statements, as if justifying his tacit consent to the armed opposition operation, Erdogan said that the regime in Damascus “did not realize the significance of Turkey’s outstretched hand.”
Fidan, however, stated that the Assad government needed to use the pause in military action to “reconcile” with its people, read: that same opposition.
Overall, Turkey is the winner all around. Against the backdrop of Iran's defeat and the uncertainty surrounding the fate of Russia's military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, the Turks feel like they are in control. They retained their status as the main sponsor of the opposition that came to power. Of all the possible players in Syria, Turkey's position is currently stronger than anyone else's. Only their troops can move freely throughout Syrian territory, with the exception of the Kurdish Euphrates region.
TWO MAIN PROBLEMS
In Damascus, a government will be formed in the coming months. Turkey has its own trump card in the form of the FSA, but whether their representatives will be able to occupy key posts is a big question. After all, Julani plays the leading role in the victorious armed opposition. Having escaped from the "Idlib cage", they feel much more independent. Moreover, almost all the strong players, even Iran, want to establish relations with the new government in Damascus.
Julani needs to ensure economic growth and reduce Syria's dependence on Turkey, so he will try to get HTS* removed from the US terrorist list.
Money for the new Syria could come from Europe and the rich Gulf states. Turkish construction companies, whose shares have soared since December 8, are ready to take part in the reconstruction of Syria, and Julani will not refuse such support. But it is premature to say that Syria will turn into another vilayet of neo-Ottoman Turkey.
| Ooooh — we’re not the only one using that? |
Besides influencing the new Syrian authorities, Turkey is concerned with two other pressing issues.
Firstly, the refugees. On the day of the fall of the Assad regime, December 8, local publications paid attention first of all to Hakan Fidan’s phrase that “millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey will soon be able to return to their homeland.”
Later, Erdogan also spoke on this topic. Having stated the importance of guarantees for the territorial integrity of Syria and “brotherly relations with the Syrian people,” the Turkish president pointed to the “expectations” of the return of Syrians to their homeland.
The task is urgent for Ankara, but not easy.
Will Julani or anyone else be able to provide everything that millions of people need? Following Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and the EU countries will want to return refugees. Without significant financial injections, the task becomes impossible for Damascus.
Secondly, Turkey’s main task in the new Syria is to fight the Kurdish groups from the SDF and YPG. On December 10, Erdogan assured that they would be defeated “in the near future.” Even before the HTS* offensive on Aleppo began, the Turkish president warned that he was going to complete Operation Peace Spring, which was stopped in 2019, and clear the entire 600-kilometer border of Kurdish militants, pushing them back 30 km to the south.
After the HTS offensive began, the actions entered an active phase. The Turkish military together with the SNA have already taken Tel Rifaat and Manbij. There is an obvious attempt to use the "interregnum" to eliminate the Kurdish units.
And one of the versions of the non-intervention of Turkish troops during the attack on Aleppo suggests that Ankara used this operation to cover up its own actions against the YPG.
MASTER OF PR
Despite the difficult transition of power in Washington, the Pentagon is still resisting the Turkish plans. Recently, according to CENTCOM, the American military struck 70 ISIS targets. And it is possible that some were actually aimed at the SNA, which is storming Kurdish positions.
With Trump in power, the situation may worsen. The Republican administration has its share of Turkophobes and Kurdophiles – Tulsi Gabbard, Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Pete Hesgeth.
Erdogan needs to hurry to confront Trump with the new reality. At the same time, some Turkish observers believe that Ankara, with its operations, is actually helping the new American president fulfill his promise to withdraw troops from Syria.
As for Russia, recalling the history of our relations in recent years, we can say that Syria made Turkey and Russia both enemies and friends overnight.
Under the pretext of various Syrian topics, Erdogan met with Putin constantly, second only to Lukashenko in their frequency. The two countries managed to find a common language and come to an agreement in the most difficult moments.
But the situation and circumstances have changed. If earlier Türkiye supervised the Syrian minority, and Russia the majority, now everything is exactly the opposite.
Turkish media outlets are proudly reporting that Russia allegedly asked their country to help safely evacuate Russian troops. Memes and videos exploiting the image of the Ottoman Sultan outplaying the Russian Tsar are multiplying on social media.
Now Turkey, as the de facto winner in the Syrian campaign, may be tempted to act condescendingly. And who knows, maybe the Turks are already dreaming of taking the place of Russian sailors and pilots in Latakia and Tartus? But it is still too early for them to celebrate: it is still unclear how relations between Turkey and the future authorities will develop. Will they be as “tame” as the SNA and other groups that Erdogan supervised?
For now, he is keeping his cool, as his latest statement about Putin shows. But the Turks are masters of PR and will never miss an opportunity to use their success to bolster their image.
Now Turkey has an extra trump card to offer mediation on Ukraine not just as a platform for negotiations, but as a great power and leader of the Middle East. And Erdogan will certainly use this trump card.
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Posted by badanov 2024-12-12 00:00||
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