Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Victor Lavrinenko
[REGNUM] On October 13, the first round of parliamentary elections took place in Lithuania, the outcome of which already allows us to assess the picture of the changes awaiting the political system of this country.
It would seem that there are no particular surprises: the systemic parties are simply forming a new configuration of the ruling coalition.
But these elections brought one surprise - the unexpected rise of the absolutely marginal Nazi party, whose leader became infamous for his denial of Lithuanians' guilt for the Holocaust. This success became a clear proof of the process of "grassroots" fascisation of the country, which previously they preferred not to talk about much. The political system of Lithuania will undergo serious changes.
FAILED "AGRARIANS"
The most powerful of the local parties is the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (HO-LD, also known as the Conservatives).
These are the ideological heirs of the "father of Lithuanian independence" Vytautas Landsbergis - he retired from active affairs due to age, but remains an extremely influential figure. His grandson Gabrielius is the head of the LC-LDC, who received the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2020.
The Conservatives differ from other major Lithuanian parties in their heightened level of Russophobia and special devotion to Washington, which they consider their unconditional overlord.
Domestically, they pursue a distinctly neoliberal policy. In 2008–2012, the Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who represented the LC-LD, became the most hated person in the country because he “defeated” the economic crisis by ruthlessly cutting down the country’s social system.
Kubilius's activities led to the conservatives going into opposition following the 2012 elections. At that time, a coalition led by the local Social Democratic Party came to power in Lithuania. It lasted for four years, and in 2016, it was replaced by a new coalition led by the Union of Farmers and Greens (UFG).
The regular change of ruling coalitions in Lithuania is explained by the fact that the problems of this state are systemic in nature, which means that they cannot be resolved within the current order of things. The voter quickly becomes disappointed with the next political favorites, and he runs to the next ones, forgetting that he once voted for them. Therefore, there is a cycle of parties, changing places in the ruling coalition and opposition every four to eight years.
Just by 2016, the country had a demand for new meanings, for the creation of a qualitatively new political system. The people entrusted the Union of Peasants and Greens with satisfying it, but it failed in this task.
Firstly, the SKZ received a strong opposition in the form of conservatives. Secondly, the Lithuanian "peasants and greens" did not even try to carry out some kind of "revolution from above". In foreign policy, the SKZ continued the course of its predecessors - confrontation with Russia, attempts to "democratize" Belarus, strategic cooperation with Washington.
At the same time, the Lithuanian "agrarians" were so carried away by geopolitical games that they never found any incentives for the development of their country's economy. As a result, in the fall of 2020, the voters asked them to "leave".
WAR WITH CHINA AND THE COVID "CONCENTRATION CAMP"
However, under the Conservatives’ return to power, Lithuania’s foreign policy games have reached a truly global scale. Immediately after winning the 2020 elections, the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats promised to “defend democratic values, oppose human rights violations, and protect freedom fighters around the world – from Belarus to Taiwan.”
The main focus of the Conservatives' foreign policy activities in the first year was Belarus. They fiercely supported the Belarusian opposition, introduced new sanctions against Minsk and called on the entire EU to do the same. They did this regardless of the economic losses. The ban on the transit of Belaruskali products through Klaipeda at the end of 2021 alone brought billions of dollars in losses to the Lithuanian economy and led to a wave of layoffs in the transport sector.
Another area of activity that Lithuanian conservatives have declared is the fight against the Belarusian NPP. Through their efforts, Lithuania not only refused to purchase electricity produced at the Belarusian NPP, but also persuaded Latvia and Estonia to join this “energy boycott.”
But the main result of the conservatives' four years in power was Lithuania's quarrel with China, which again resulted in significant economic losses for the Lithuanians. At first, Vilnius showered Beijing with insults, accusing it of "suppressing democracy" and of the Chinese allegedly engaging in "total espionage" and "influence-grabbing" in the EU countries.
But then Lithuania committed a much more serious act: it opened an official representative office of Taiwan, thus directly violating the “one China” principle, which Vilnius supposedly recognizes in words.
An enraged Beijing reduced its diplomatic representation in Lithuania to a minimum and imposed sanctions against the Baltic republic, which, again, caused it enormous damage.
The authorities promised that it was not a problem, that grateful Taiwan would compensate and even cover all losses with its investments, but nothing of the sort happened. And now opposition Lithuanian politicians are increasingly openly saying that the quarrel with Beijing, which was started literally out of nowhere, was an outright stupidity.
Russian-Lithuanian relations suffered even more damage during the conservatives' rule. Long before the start of the SVO, Vilnius was inventing insults against Moscow and constantly inventing all sorts of reasons to prick its neighbor.
When the Western campaign to strangle Russia with sanctions began in the spring of 2022, Lithuania, like the other Baltic countries, constantly tried to get ahead of the game and proactively introduced sanctions that Brussels did not even demand of them, such as a ban on issuing visas to all Russian citizens.
Lithuanian leaders, including Landsbergis Jr., are telling the population that “it is necessary to prepare for Russian aggression,” because “ if Moscow senses weakness, it will certainly attack.” This creates an atmosphere of extreme nervousness and uncertainty in the country.
The conservatives' policy had already become so annoying to the Lithuanian people from the very beginning that within a month of their return to power, more than half of the population had expressed no confidence in the new government. Mass complaints and lamentations began to be heard: why did we vote for these crooks?
Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė cynically advised all those dissatisfied to wait for new elections in 2024. The conservatives especially turned people against themselves by tightening the screws to the limit during the Covid pandemic. Unlike Russia, where "self-isolation" lasted only for a few months in 2020, and then the state began to gradually ease restrictions, the Baltic countries existed in the strictest quarantine regime for two years.
The population of Lithuania then felt as if they were in a collective prison: residents were even forbidden to leave their municipalities. Ordinary Lithuanians repeatedly asked for these restrictions to be relaxed, and when the authorities refused, mass unrest began in Vilnius. Then the protesters blocked the parliament building, and the police used tear gas to disperse them.
Taking into account all of the above, it becomes clear why many people are sick and tired of the SO-KhDL government.
ELECTION RESULTS
The Seimas of Lithuania is elected by universal secret ballot under a mixed system: 71 deputies in single-member constituencies under the majoritarian system, 70 in a multi-member constituency under party lists. This time, fifteen teams competed for seats in parliament - 14 party candidates and one coalition list; 699 candidates competed in single-member constituencies.
And now the results of the first round of voting, which took place on October 13, have become known. In multi-mandate districts, the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDPL) received the maximum result - 20.46% of the votes and 19 mandates.
The Conservatives were only in second place - 16.44% support and 15 mandates. In third place was the nationalist party "Nemunas's Dawn" led by former Seimas deputy Remigijus Žemaitaitis.
Also in the first round, the three party leaders who ran in single-mandate constituencies were the most successful. Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė from the SO-KhDL received 53.55% in her constituency. The Speaker of the Seimas from the Liberal Movement (this party is the junior partner of the Conservatives in the ruling coalition) Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen received 44.9%, and the chairwoman of Nemunas Day Žemaitaitis received 46.44%.
They celebrated victory in single-mandate constituencies already in the first round of elections. Others were content with more modest results: five party chairmen made it to the second round, and three lost the single-mandate elections.
What does this result indicate? Fatigue with the current ruling coalition – yes, of course. But the result of the coalition parties cannot be called a rout, and in the case of Šimonytė and Čmilytė-Nilson personally, it is more than successful.
This is explained by the fact that both the SO-KhDL and the Liberal Movement have managed to become parties of the Lithuanian bureaucracy, who associate their personal well-being with their success. The class of officials in Lithuania is quite large, and not only they themselves vote for “their” party, but also their entire numerous relatives.
Moreover, it must be admitted that in Lithuania many people have been fooled by anti-Russian propaganda; they are impressed by the energetic activities of Šimonytė and her party in “ building a defense against aggressive Russia ”: purchasing weapons, strengthening the army, inviting a permanent Bundeswehr brigade to Lithuania, etc.
However, officials, their relatives and victims of Russophobic propaganda were not enough to overcome the negative legacy of the conservatives’ rule.
But the success of the Social Democrats is built on the votes of those who are mortally fed up with the government.
Their candidate for prime minister is the party chairperson Vilija Blinkevičiūtė. She has one serious advantage: she is not an out-and-out Russophobic and, being a left-wing person, is more interested in the country's internal affairs than in geopolitical confrontation.
One plus for Blinkevičiūtė is that she does not share the opinion about the need to liquidate Russian schools in Lithuania. She once disputed the expediency of opening a Taiwan representative office in Vilnius.
In 2021, the Social Democrats objected to the crude interference in Georgia's affairs, where conservative representatives began to visit frequently to teach Georgians how to "properly confront Russia."
Of course, if the Social Democrats head the new Lithuanian government, one should not expect the state's foreign policy to change in any serious way - the country will remain in the American "train". But the anti-Russian policy will be carried out by Vilnius without the previous enthusiasm and without any completely crude insults to Moscow.
"DAWN" OF NEO-NAZISM
But what came as a surprise was the huge success of Zarya Nemunas.
Its founder, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, was kicked out of the respectable Freedom and Justice party in 2023 after he published a series of anti-Semitic posts on social media. In particular, he tried to absolve Lithuanians of responsibility for aiding the Nazis during the Holocaust (during the Nazi occupation, 200,000 Jews were killed in Lithuania with the active participation of local collaborators). Žemaitaitis accused Jews of attacking Lithuanians during the war (indeed, Jewish partisan units operated on the territory of the republic) and demanded an “apology” from them.
The scandal was huge, especially since the US embassy also paid attention to these statements. Zemaitaitis had to say goodbye to both his party at the time and his seat in the Seimas.
However, he did not lose his head and quickly organized a new political force, the success of which no one believed in, given the scandalous past of its founder. And suddenly - triumph, incredible success, when unknown marginal nationalists take third place in the elections.
This success is the result of thirty years of nationalist propaganda hammered into the heads of the population, when Soviet soldiers were declared “occupiers” and the “forest brothers” (many of whom directly participated in the extermination of those same Jews) were proclaimed “heroes.”
It turned out that over the years, a fairly large layer of people has been raised in the country who are ready to repeat the bloody "feats" of their predecessors. The malice of Lithuanian neo-Nazis is directed at the minorities living in Lithuania - Jews, Poles and Russians.
And they are much more outspoken and radical than the same conservatives, whose ranks also include a ton of nationalists who are forced to restrain themselves for reasons of respectability.
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