Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] On October 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin took part in the forum “Interconnection of Times and Civilizations — the Basis of Peace and Development,” held in the capital of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat. The first and second persons of Central Asian countries, as well as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Armenia, and Mongolia gathered there.
The forum was held as part of the program to celebrate the 300th anniversary of the Turkmen poet and philosopher Makhtumkuli Fragi - an event that would seem to be far removed from big politics. But the leaders of the states came because in this case the interests of both the hosts of the event, the authorities of Turkmenistan headed by the young president Serdar Berdimuhamedov, and the distinguished guests coincided.
The owners need international contacts.
"In many ways, this forum, like other events held by the Turkmen side, is aimed at maintaining the appearance of international activity of Turkmenistan. Having declared "complete neutrality" at the dawn of its formation, the country itself placed itself in isolation. However, in modern conditions, it is forced to build relations with other states - after all, it turns out that Turkmenistan cannot solve its internal and external problems on its own," Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, explains to Regnum News Agency.
In particular, the country needs Russia's support to protect its borders with Afghanistan, the expert notes. In addition, it needs to deepen economic contacts with its Central Asian neighbors and participate in international infrastructure projects in the Caspian Sea, including in the North-South corridor.
The guests needed a platform where they could meet to discuss issues related to security and economics in the Central Asian, Caspian and even Middle Eastern regions in bilateral and multilateral formats. There were many topics for discussion.
“Moscow took advantage of this event to conduct a number of working contacts,” continues Nikita Mendkovich.
Vladimir Putin met with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari – as one can assume, the parties discussed issues related to possible Russian recognition of the Taliban (the organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activity, and is also recognized as terrorist in Russia) as the legitimate authorities of Afghanistan.
In addition, the Russian president spoke with the speaker of the Turkish parliament, Numan Kurtulmuş. The official Kremlin website reports that the upcoming visit of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the BRICS summit in Kazan was discussed. According to Nikita Mendkovich, the discussion could also have been about Syrian affairs – a possible meeting between Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
However, experts call Putin's most important bilateral meeting in Turkmenistan his talks with the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The leaders of the two countries met for the first time - and immediately to discuss the most important issues.
"The conversation primarily focused on the upcoming signing of a comprehensive strategic agreement - it is to take place in Kazan, during the October BRICS summit. Officially, they have been working on this document for more than two years, and according to my information, more than five," international political scientist and RIAC expert Elena Suponina told Regnum.
According to her, the parties reached the finish line in September of this year. Now it is extremely important to determine what will be written in the points of the agreement devoted to mutual assistance in the event of military threats.
“Will these be formulations similar to those in the Russian-North Korean agreements (where the parties committed to providing assistance in the event of aggression), or will the parties agree on a softer option?” Suponina explains.
According to a number of experts, a softer option is preferable for Russia. Moscow can defend its territory independently, and there is no point in taking on obligations to protect Iran from aggression. Moreover, it does not matter whether it is aggression from the US and Israel (that is, drawing Russia into a nuclear war), or from Arab states - with which Moscow has no conflicts. And in general, the time of military alliances with strict obligations is becoming a thing of the past, giving way to more flexible formats of relations.
The Iranians certainly understand this. Tehran's minimum goal is to receive at least significant military-technical assistance from Russia in the event of a conflict with the US, which Israel is pushing it into.
“We could be talking about air defense systems and fighter jets,” suggests Elena Suponina.
That is, to neutralize the air superiority of the US and Israel - the Iranians, given their capabilities, will cope with the ground component of the war on their own. If the ground component happens at all - of course, it would be nice if it did not happen. In the diplomatic arena, Russia calls on everyone to resolve issues peacefully.
"Moscow has always been against any strikes on Iran, considering this a prologue to a possible major war in the region. It has always criticized Israel and the United States for dangerous actions of this kind and their intentions to continue them. And by signing an important agreement with Iran, the Kremlin makes it clear that it will not leave this country alone. Just as the Chinese will not leave it alone," says the interlocutor of the Regnum news agency, hinting at the close economic and military-political ties between Beijing and Tehran.
Accordingly, the Iranians are making it clear to the Americans through a series of international negotiations that a military operation would cost them too much. At the same time, it seemed that Pezeshkian would not hold such demonstration meetings: after his recent election victory, rumors were spreading that he was liberal-minded and was looking for negotiations with the West, and that deepening cooperation with Russia was not in his plans. But in reality, things are different.
"Some of the rumors about Masoud Pezeshkian are inspired by Western news agencies and intelligence services. They are trying to attribute more liberal positions to the Iranian president than those he actually holds. Pezeshkian is an absolutely systemic politician, he obeys the general rules of the game and the will of the spiritual leader of the country, Ali Khamenei," Elena Suponina is sure.
And Ali Khamenei is well aware of the benefits and advantages not only of expanding, but also of deepening cooperation with Moscow.
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