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2024-08-25 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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The Price of an Adventure. How Much Equipment Did the Ukrainians Lose During the Invasion of Kursk Oblast
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] Over the past months, Ukrainian troops have suffered repeated defeats, retreating along the entire front line in Donbas. In conditions when reinforcements were needed on the front line, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command decided to raid into Russian territory.
The breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region occurred on the morning of August 6. To do this, the leadership of the Ukrainian army deployed units from several directions, primarily mobile ones.
Based on the photos and videos taken by the enemy, it can be concluded that Kyiv initially relied on the speed of breakthrough and maneuver, so the invasion contingent included units armed with wheeled armored vehicles of various models. First of all, these are the 80th and 82nd airborne assault brigades, equipped with American M1126 Stryker armored personnel carriers.
Earlier, Regnum News Agency repeatedly drew attention to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not using some of the armored vehicles supplied by NATO countries in Donbass, holding them in the rear for a new offensive. This allowed them to concentrate a large number of American armored vehicles and, for the first time in the entire military action, use them simultaneously.
Along with the American armored personnel carriers, other wheeled vehicles at the disposal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were also thrown into the breach: French VAB armored personnel carriers, Ukrainian Kazak armored vehicles, Turkish Otokar Cobra, Roschel, Cougar and other models.
"TURNED FROM HUNTERS TO PREY"
This entire "wheeled zoo" was formed to advance along the roads using the "as soon as possible" and "no matter the losses" tactics, achieving a shock effect. The initial plan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was to provoke maximum confusion, panic and provoke a humanitarian and political crisis. This was stated in a commentary to the Regnum news agency by military expert, retired colonel Anatoliy Matviychuk.
"In essence, we are witnessing the second stage of the conflict. The preconditions for panic are being created, which are accompanied by rumors about "the center will not help", the exodus of refugees, and so on. In fact, "collective democratic fascism", as I call it, was betting on undermining statehood through a lightning operation," the expert noted.
The "forward-forward" tactics provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with short-term success in the early stages of the operation. However, they also led to problems for the attackers.
The forested terrain in the Kursk region does not allow the equipment to maneuver off-road, which tied the Ukrainian Armed Forces to roads. As a result, the units that broke away from the bridgehead quickly turned from hunters into prey. The result is that dozens of armored vehicles were destroyed in an ambush or as a result of drone strikes.
The analytical portal Lostarmour, which analyzes losses during modern military conflicts based on open source data, reports that more than thirty light armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were burned during battles in the Kursk region. These statistics include only those losses that were recorded in photos and videos.
Several Stryker armored personnel carriers were also destroyed, including two vehicles in the M1126 ECV combat engineer modification. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 20 Stryker vehicles out of the hundred supplied by the United States. And this does not include vehicles that failed for technical reasons.
The day before, the American publication Military Watch Magazine reported that Ukrainian troops had already lost 20 Abrams tanks out of 31 delivered. These are not “critical” but “catastrophic” losses.
OFFENSIVE WITHOUT TANKS
Another distinctive feature of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' raid into the Kursk region was the almost complete refusal to use heavy armored vehicles. Exactly one year ago, during the "counteroffensive" in the Zaporizhzhya direction, Ukrainian troops acted exactly the opposite, throwing tanks and heavy armored vehicles into battle in large numbers on a small section of the front.
In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive was supported by British Challenger tanks assigned to one of the airborne units. The vehicles, which the Ukrainian army received in the amount of 30 units, did not show their best side and were not used in combat for more than six months. However, now Kyiv has decided to use them as well - at least one tank of this model was destroyed.
The lack of armored support means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces, faced with a well-built defense, are forced to halt their offensive. However, the tanks that are available are likely to be used in Donbass and on other fronts.
Overall, the problems that have arisen for the Ukrainian Armed Forces raise the question: was it worth starting such an adventure?
"The goals of this campaign were defined in the US. Or, if you like, in NATO command. The task is to destroy the statehood of Russia. It did not work out in a direct way, Ukraine is suffering losses on all fronts - from Donetsk to Kherson. So no matter how much Kiev loses there, it will not matter to those who ordered it," notes Anatoly Matviychuk.
But will the Ukrainian army itself be able to handle such an adventure, which is essentially being deprived of its last reserves and most combat-ready units? After all, according to statistics, the total number of armored vehicles of all types lost by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region exceeded 70 units. Although in reality we may be talking about hundreds of armored vehicles that have not yet been captured on camera.
IRREPLACEABLE LOSSES OF ARTILLERY
An interesting detail: if Kyiv was stingy with heavy armored vehicles for participation in the invasion of the Kursk region, then it was completely stingy with fire support and air support.
Large-caliber 203mm 2S7 Pion guns, which have not appeared at the front for many months, were spotted in the border zone. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also firing from both Soviet and American multiple launch rocket systems across the state border, primarily from HIMARS rocket systems.
Kyiv treasures these weapons, using them on a hit-and-run basis. Every disabled HIMARS is a major success for Russian forces.
According to Lostarmour, at least three vehicles have been disabled since the start of the SVO. And in three weeks of operations in the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost the same number.
The rocket systems are usually located in the Sumy region and are camouflaged in forests immediately after the strike. However, thanks to the activity of Russian drones, the vehicles were tracked down and hit by Iskander OTRK strikes.
The US may adjust aid to Ukraine due to attacks on the Kursk region
In addition to the three lost HIMARS in the Kursk region, in the Kherson direction the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost an M270 rocket system - a HIMARS variant on a tracked platform, with two launchers for six missiles.
For Kyiv, these are extremely painful losses, since such vehicles are supplied individually and extremely rarely. It is practically impossible to replenish them, and the loss of MLRS leaves an entire section of the front without fire cover.
"They say that what happened is Zelensky's mistake, but there is no mistake here. Ukrainian troops are suffering losses, and they failed to fulfill their tasks. Rather the opposite - the greater the pressure, the more we unite. So all the consequences of this adventure will fall on the figurehead chairman Zelensky - yes. But he is doing what he was ordered to do," Anatoly Matviychuk is convinced.
He predicts that Kyiv will not limit itself to an adventure in the Kursk region, admitting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may try to attack Transnistria - also on orders from outside.
Ultimately, the dispersal of Ukrainian military reserves could lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in other areas. But this does not prevent the West from ordering new military "actions" from Kyiv.
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Posted by badanov 2024-08-25 00:00||
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