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2024-05-20 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Raeisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian titzup in helicopter crash

Follow up to this story from yesterday.

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Hard landing of a helicopter with the President of Iran: who might benefit from it?

by Gevorg Mirzayan

[REGNUM] On Sunday, May 19, a helicopter carrying three Iranian political leaders, including President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, made a hard landing in the north of the country, near the border with Azerbaijan.

The incident occurred in a mountainous, inaccessible area. This prevented rescuers from quickly reaching the landing site. In addition, the search is complicated by severe weather conditions and poor visibility - about 5-6 meters. According to a preliminary version, the emergency could have occurred due to fog.

Around 22:30 Moscow time, it became known that experts had established the exact location of the helicopter based on a signal received from the phone of one of the crew members. It is noted that the military immediately headed to the indicated place.

So far there is no exact information about the condition of Raisi and other passengers. However, two questions have already arisen: what was it and what will be the consequences for Iran if the politicians fail to save themselves?

Most experts are inclined to believe that this is an assassination attempt. Moreover, it was carefully planned - it was no coincidence that a number of the country's top leaders ended up in the same helicopter, and it was he, and not the two flying side by side, who made a hard landing.

Also, some observers were quick to link what happened to Raisi with four other recent incidents.

The first is an attempt on the life of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico - he was shot at, the prime minister is in serious condition. The second is the threats received against Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. The third is a coup attempt uncovered in Turkey - according to authorities, a number of high-ranking security officials tried to once again overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The fourth is an assassination attempt on the Crown Prince (and de facto ruler) of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. The Kingdom's authorities do not provide any information about the incident, but it is known that terrorists attacked the Crown Prince's motorcade.

The theory of five assassination attempts, of course, has a right to exist - something in common can indeed be found in the incidents. All five leaders have a positive attitude towards Russia and support it - naturally, to the best of their ability. Some help Moscow bypass sanctions, some block anti-Russian initiatives within the European Union, and some actively cooperate with the Russian Ministry of Defense in the field of combat botany and other means of defeating the Ukrainian army.

However, such an associative series still looks like an exaggeration. First of all, because the stories with Fico and Vucic are fundamentally different from what happened with Erdogan, Mohammed bin Salman and Raisi.

An attempt was made on the life of the Slovak Prime Minister, to put it mildly, by an unbalanced person. President Vučić only received threats, which every more or less serious head of state receives in the dozens every day.

But in the other three stories, the real organization of assassination attempts and complex logistics are visible. After all, even an attack on the Saudi crown prince’s motorcade, hidden in a veil of secrecy, cannot be carried out alone, not to mention the formation of a conspiracy among the Turkish security forces or the story of the presidential helicopter in Iran.

And if we pay attention to these three cases, then they are united not only by Russia, but also by the region. Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Iran are the three engineers of the Middle East. They shape the local construction of international relations and the security system. And, given the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, as well as the radicalization of Turkish foreign policy, their regional design acquired anti-Israeli and anti-American features. And therefore it had to be prevented by any possible means - and Israel is called the main interest in the matter of prevention.

The New York Times writes that recently the United States and Iran reached certain agreements on de-escalating the situation in the Middle East. But Israel, and Prime Minister Netanyahu personally, do not need de-escalation - Tel Aviv does not lose hope of starting the war it needs against Iran with the hands of the Americans.
Not Tel Aviv — Jerusalem. Upon independence in 1948, Israel named West Jerusalem its capitol, annexing East Jerusalem to it following the Six Day War in 1967.
As for the consequences of the possible death of Iran's leaders, opinions differ. Some experts believe that nothing critical will happen for Iran: the vertical of power in the country is working, and the real leader of the country is the Supreme Ayatollah - otherwise known as Rahbar - Ali Khamenei.

Rahbar has already stated that everything is under control.

“We hope that the Almighty will return the respected President Raisi and his companions to the arms of the people. Everyone should pray for their health. The people of Iran should not worry, everything will be fine in the country,” Ali Khamenei assures.

In reality, everything is not so clear. First of all, because Ibrahim Raisi and Hossein Abdollahian are not just cogs in the state machine. Both enjoy enormous authority in society and, most importantly, among the security forces. They have a crystal clear reputation, no trail of corruption. Finally, they have a sharp mind - Abdollahian is called a strong strategist.

In addition, do not forget about the third very important passenger of the helicopter. In addition to Raisi and Abdollahian, the representative of the rahbar in the East Azerbaijan region, Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, was flying. The man who is called the likely successor to 85-year-old Ali Khamenei - that is, the next de facto leader of the country.

Therefore, if someone really planned an assassination attempt, then these people literally intended to behead the Islamic Republic. Of course, if something critically bad happened to Ali Ale-Khash, another successor to Ali Khamenei will be found in the country. But the search process itself could provoke a serious conflict within the Iranian elites. And 85-year-old Ali Khamenei and 97-year-old Ahmad Janati, head of the Council of Experts who will choose the next rahbar, may not be able to pay it off.
Posted by badanov 2024-05-20 00:00|| || Front Page|| [734 views ]  Top
 File under: Govt of Iran 

#1 Good riddance. Hopefully the Persian people will take the opportunity to rid themselves of tyranny.
Posted by Nero 2024-05-20 00:31||   2024-05-20 00:31|| Front Page Top

#2 Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed dead along with Iranian President Raisi after their helicopter crashed.
Posted by DarthVader 2024-05-20 00:34||   2024-05-20 00:34|| Front Page Top

#3 He’s dead Jim!

Ok, someone had to say it ;-)
Posted by Remoteman 2024-05-20 01:54||   2024-05-20 01:54|| Front Page Top

#4 My thoughts are with the
@washingtonpost
obituary team in this difficult time as they fiercely debate whether to call Ebrahim Raisi an “austere religious scholar”, a “patriotic anti-Zionist leader” or a “zealous anti-corruption crusader”.
Posted by Grom the reflective 2024-05-20 01:56||   2024-05-20 01:56|| Front Page Top

#5 The heart bleeds.

[urp!]

Or maybe it's the chili.
Posted by Fred 2024-05-20 02:03||   2024-05-20 02:03|| Front Page Top

#6 Celebratory dance:


Posted by Seeking Cure For Ignorance 2024-05-20 02:46||   2024-05-20 02:46|| Front Page Top

#7 Combat botany?
Posted by Ululating Platypus 2024-05-20 03:25||   2024-05-20 03:25|| Front Page Top

#8 Ref #6: Tchaikovsky's indelible score finds it's way to the Burg.
Posted by Besoeker 2024-05-20 03:34||   2024-05-20 03:34|| Front Page Top

#9 Best news of the day. So far.
An aside: I used to name some of my combat characters TITZUP. This got me in a lot of trouble with the pendants/pedagogues who read into the name too much.
Screw all PC bastards.
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2024-05-20 04:11||   2024-05-20 04:11|| Front Page Top

#10 ....To quote the Munchkin Coroner, "Not only simply merely dead, but truly most sincerely dead."

And FWIW, there's a wonderful T-shirt that popped up in the last 24 hours - shows a wrecked helicopter and it says, "MOSSAD: It's Never An Accident".

Mike
Posted by MikeKozlowski 2024-05-20 05:58||   2024-05-20 05:58|| Front Page Top

#11 Israeli official: Israel not involved in Raisi's death
Posted by Grom the reflective 2024-05-20 06:15||   2024-05-20 06:15|| Front Page Top

#12 Who is Iran's new acting president - Mohammad Mokhber? - explained
Posted by Grom the reflective 2024-05-20 06:17||   2024-05-20 06:17|| Front Page Top

#13 @#12 — like America Valarie Jarrett
Posted by Airandee 2024-05-20 06:46||   2024-05-20 06:46|| Front Page Top

#14 I'd like to nominate that mountain for this year's Nobel Peace Price.
Posted by European Conservative 2024-05-20 07:51||   2024-05-20 07:51|| Front Page Top

#15 ^ Early SOTD candidate
Posted by Frank G 2024-05-20 07:59||   2024-05-20 07:59|| Front Page Top

#16 mountains in that area of Iran get pretty high, over 12k'

anybody know the elevation of the crash site?
Posted by Lord Garth 2024-05-20 08:18||   2024-05-20 08:18|| Front Page Top

#17 anybody know the elevation of the crash site?

Fairly lush vegetation that I saw on the video and the people carrying down the bodies, so not super high is my guess.
Posted by DarthVader 2024-05-20 08:32||   2024-05-20 08:32|| Front Page Top

#18  mountains in that area of Iran get pretty high, over 12k'

You mean feet?
Posted by Grom the reflective 2024-05-20 08:50||   2024-05-20 08:50|| Front Page Top

#19 Raisins for everybody!
Posted by Rex Mundi 2024-05-20 09:09||   2024-05-20 09:09|| Front Page Top

#20 anybody know the elevation of the crash site?

High enough.
Posted by Procopius2k 2024-05-20 09:18||   2024-05-20 09:18|| Front Page Top

#21 Some good news to start the week
Posted by Chantry 2024-05-20 09:21||   2024-05-20 09:21|| Front Page Top

#22 When the mountains go high the turbans go low.
Posted by European Conservative 2024-05-20 09:23||   2024-05-20 09:23|| Front Page Top

#23 10s of thousands to late!
Posted by Chesney+Sleting4519 2024-05-20 09:58||   2024-05-20 09:58|| Front Page Top

#24 there's a wonderful T-shirt
...and hats"

Posted by Skidmark 2024-05-20 10:57||   2024-05-20 10:57|| Front Page Top

#25 EU Rushes to Send Condolences to Iran After ‘Butcher of Tehran’ President Raisi Killed in Helicopter Crash
Posted by Frank G 2024-05-20 11:23||   2024-05-20 11:23|| Front Page Top

#26 That's a misunderstanding. The condolences went to the helicopter.
Posted by European Conservative 2024-05-20 13:28||   2024-05-20 13:28|| Front Page Top

#27 So Boeing makes helicopters too, eh?
Posted by SteveS 2024-05-20 14:35||   2024-05-20 14:35|| Front Page Top

#28 ^BOEING BLASTED FOR PRIORITIZING RACIAL QUOTAS OVER PERFORMANCE AND SAFETY
Posted by Grom the reflective 2024-05-20 14:43||   2024-05-20 14:43|| Front Page Top

#29 Rescuers recover bodies from Iran President Raisi’s helicopter crash site
Posted by Skidmark 2024-05-20 16:34||   2024-05-20 16:34|| Front Page Top

#30 Bell 212, not Boeing.

Maps show where Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter was found

Posted by Skidmark 2024-05-20 16:40||   2024-05-20 16:40|| Front Page Top

#31 The funeral should be a target rich environment...
Posted by European Conservative 2024-05-20 17:15||   2024-05-20 17:15|| Front Page Top

#32 based on Map in WaPo, I'm estimating 8,000 to 10,000'
Posted by Lord Garth 2024-05-20 17:16||   2024-05-20 17:16|| Front Page Top

#33 "Kobe's pilot's notes says we're good"
Posted by Frank G 2024-05-20 19:10||   2024-05-20 19:10|| Front Page Top

#34 God put the mountain there on purpose!

Posted by Seeking Cure For Ignorance 2024-05-20 19:56||   2024-05-20 19:56|| Front Page Top

#35 But did he have a Qom to Jesus moment?
Posted by Marilyn+Thronter5744 2024-05-20 20:00||   2024-05-20 20:00|| Front Page Top

#36 ^ Nice poke
Posted by Frank G 2024-05-20 21:19||   2024-05-20 21:19|| Front Page Top

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