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2024-04-05 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Explicit and hidden threats. What did the defense ministers of Russia and France talk about?
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] On the evening of April 3, negotiations took place between Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu. Official Paris urgently requested the conversation, the Russian Ministry of Defense noted. The very fact of communication caused a public outcry. For several reasons. Firstly, simply because the conversation took place - the first telephone conversation between the ministers of the two countries in 18 months. Supporters of the idea of global isolation of Russia are already indignant. For example, former French President Francois Hollande demands that the authorities not have any contact with Moscow at all.
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“ If we want peace, we must be able to show strength,” he said.
Secondly, because France was the initiator. Now Paris plays the role of the main European hawk in the Russian direction.
“ Against the backdrop of the expected departure of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to NATO, the head of France, Emmanuel Macron, felt that he could become the most influential politician in Europe, and decided to assert himself with the help of anti-Russian speeches,” Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, told IA Regnum.
Moreover, such speeches could previously only be heard from the lips of Eastern European politicians.
“President Emmanuel Macron is now saying such things and coming up with such initiatives that even the Americans are still wary of making,” explains international political scientist and RIAC expert Elena Suponina in a commentary to IA Regnum.
In her opinion, the Americans are now using Macron to test the waters for a possible toughening of their position. For example, about the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine - and Macron is even ready to do this unilaterally.
“New information is emerging about Paris’s preparation of a military contingent to be sent to Ukraine. For these purposes, the command of the French Foreign Legion in early March approved the composition of a battalion-tactical group of about 1,500 people,” notes Russian Foreign Ministry speaker Maria Zakharova.
Thirdly, the resonance around the dialogue between defense ministers arose because the official press releases of the Russian and French military departments about the content of the negotiations were different.
The media and experts highlight two key topics of the negotiations. First of all, the fight against terrorism. Here the differences were minimal.
Sebastien Lecornu “confirmed that France does not have information to establish a link between this attack and Ukraine,” and “also called on Russia to stop any exploitation of this issue,” the French Ministry of Defense said in an official press release.
But the purpose of the call was not to accuse Russia of calling Ukraine a terrorist, but to ask for help in protecting France from terrorists not controlled by Paris who are planning to disrupt the Olympic Games, which are to be held in the French capital in a few months.
Even before Lecornu’s call, Paris, through the mouth of Macron, proposed exchanging views on the fight against terrorism.
“This French proposal <...> comes at a time when France is again on maximum alert, <...> four months before the Olympic Games on its territory,” recalls Le Parisien.
The security situation, or rather the danger, is so serious that the French intelligence services have already asked the country's authorities to cancel the opening ceremony of the Games. It is therefore not surprising that “France does not want to neglect any potential source of information in order to prevent potential risks that could affect this event,” explains Le Figaro.
And Russia, which has been fighting terrorism on several continents for many years, is an important source of information. And he can share it - unless, of course, it turns out that France participated in organizing the terrorist attack in Crocus.
As for the Ukrainian topic, here the differences turned out to be more serious. The Russian defense ministry said that during the conversation “ a readiness for dialogue on Ukraine was noted” and "the starting points could be based on the Istanbul Peace Initiative.”
The French side assures that there was no talk of any negotiations. Parisian media, citing Lecornu's entourage, write that “the Russian minister confirmed his readiness to resume dialogue on Ukraine,” but “France did not accept or offer anything ” on this matter.
In fact, the dialogue most likely took place. Sebastien Lecornu must understand the consequences of the possible entry of French troops into Ukraine. French - or still NATO?
“France alone will not send troops. Only together with the USA, Britain, Germany and Poland,” Vadim Trukhachev is sure.
Many experts believe that the entry itself is unlikely, if only for technical reasons.
“France, like the rest of NATO countries, is not yet ready for a serious military conflict with Russia. It is not even ready to provide Ukraine with shells and other weapons.
European NATO countries are effectively deindustrialized. To put the economy on a war footing, it must first be reformed,” explains Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS to IA Regnum.
In addition, France is expecting elections: first parliamentary, then presidential. Macron’s party now has about 20% support; Marine Le Pen is leading in the polls, says Ofitserov-Belsky.
A situation may arise that, in order to maintain his reputation and the falling Kyiv regime, Macron will have to decide to send troops. It is possible that Lecornu’s task was to discuss the risks of this step with Shoigu. Or understand the consequences of a possible Russian response.
“It is impossible to imagine a situation where French troops could be attacked, and NATO would not get involved and remain silent,” notes Elena Suponina.
It is possible that Sergei Shoigu said approximately the same thing that State Duma Deputy Speaker Pyotr Tolstoy said the day before.
“ We will kill all French soldiers who set foot on Ukrainian soil. Every single one of them.
Today, if we count the entire time of the conflict in Ukraine, 13 thousand mercenaries have been there. Of these, 367 are French. 147 were liquidated. 147 French citizens have already died in Ukraine. And we will kill everyone else. You don’t have to worry about this,” Tolstoy said in an interview with a French TV channel, adding that for Moscow, Ukraine is an existential issue.
Therefore, France should think not about sending troops, but about withdrawing military personnel operating under the guise of mercenaries and vacationers in Ukraine.
“French officers are present there, they were attacked and there were casualties. And the more dead there are, the more active the discussion will be in France about whether it is necessary to send troops. But Macron doesn’t need this discussion, it aggravates his political existence,” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky is sure.
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