2023-12-09 The Grand Turk
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Erdogan turned the helm: will rapprochement with the EU lead to distance from Russia?
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Hasanov
[REGNUM] On December 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan flew to Greece for talks with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis . The visit is truly historic: this is the second visit of a Turkish leader to Greek soil in 70 years.
Continued from Page 5
The Greeks and Turks went through an era of centuries-old hostility.
The Hellenes still cannot forget about the conquest of Constantinople, just like the Serbs cannot forget about the defeat in Kosovo. Turkey was painfully worried about the collapse of its empire and the Treaty of Sèvres in 1920, which provided for the transfer of Adrianople, the Gallipoli Peninsula and Eastern Thrace to Greece (by the way, Gazprom’s Turkish Stream project extends here).
During the Cold War, contradictions were smoothed out.
In 1952, Greece and Türkiye became among the first NATO members. The exception was the 1974 conflict in Cyprus, which ended with the invasion of Turkey and the secession of the Turkish-populated northern part of the island. In addition, the issue of the islands in the Aegean Sea remained unresolved. The countries were on the brink of war in 1987 and 1996, but NATO membership curbed escalation.
At the beginning of the 2000s, countries moved towards normalizing relations. Turkey was aimed at joining the EU, which Greece had already joined in 1981 and adhered to the policy of “zero problems with neighbors.”
However, in its own region, such a course was spurred by the growing military-economic superiority of Turkey, the window of opportunity in the face of the “Arab Spring” for bringing “our own” to power, the discovery of gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea, Ankara’s conflicts with the EU/NATO/USA and the weakening influence of the West.
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Türkiye has increasingly begun to rely on force when solving foreign policy problems. The dispatch of troops to Libya in 2020 and three military operations in Syria made it possible to strengthen its positions in these countries.
At the same time, Turkey's strengthened strength turned into its weakness. Because of Ankara’s actions in Syria, relations not only with the United States and the EU, but even with its faithful ally, Great Britain, have deteriorated (it also imposed sanctions after Operation Peace Spring).
In 2020, Turkey, under the escort of its Navy, began geological exploration off the coast of Cyprus and in the Aegean Sea.
Turkish fighter jets began to fly over Greek airspace. Greece and Cyprus have united in an anti-Turkish alliance consisting of France, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, the UAE and partly the USA. Türkiye and Greece have put their armed forces on high alert.
When the pandemic hit, Turkey suffered double-digit inflation and a financial crisis, with no money left for wars. And then there was the earthquake of February 2023, which almost bankrupted the Turkish treasury.
Ankara has begun restoring ties with Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Tel Aviv. In a word, we returned to the “zero problems with neighbors” policy. Erdogan's trip to Greece is a continuation of this trend to pacify his region. And Ankara is the initiator.
Greek journalists have not forgotten how back in May last year, when their prime minister asked the US Congress not to sell F-16s to Turkey, Erdogan said that Mitsotakis “no longer exists” for him . After another five months, the Turkish President threatened: “We may suddenly arrive one night . ” Turkish radio stations broadcast these words during Turkey's invasion of Cyprus in 1974.
However, the Turkish president was greeted in Athens with great pomp. Red carpet, guard of honor. The head of the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs arrived at the Eleftherios Venizelos airport. In a joint photo, Mitsotakis and Erdogan were smiling. Everything looked as non-standard as possible.
The Guardian journalist Elena Smith drew attention to one nuance. Erdogan “allowed himself to smile more than once, given his well-known penchant for a steely gaze.” The Greek press also closely followed Erdogan’s views.
The commentary of the center-right newspaper Kathimerini is interesting. Reacting to Erdogan's words about opening a new chapter in relations between the countries after years of turbulence, she noted: “If differences are resolved through dialogue and common ground is achieved, it benefits everyone.”
The press also decided to interrogate Erdogan and recalled the phrase “we can come at night.” The Turkish President decided to reassure the Greeks: “I’ll tell him this: Kyriakos, my friend, we do not threaten you if you do not threaten us . ” The Greeks were pleased. Political scientist Lukas Tsoukalis believes that the meeting between the two leaders went better than expected.
Judging by the headlines in the Turkish press, it is felt that Ankara is delighted with the normalization of relations with its neighbors. The Hürriyet newspaper sees a new era in the signed “Declaration of Good Neighborliness”, recalling in passing that this was done 100 years after the Lausanne Peace Treaty.
Milliyet called the summit “a spring wind in the Aegean region . ” Karar focused on the benefits for ordinary Turks, who were given seven-day visa-free travel to ten Greek islands by the Greeks. Cumhuriyet tried to make excuses for Erdogan's earlier statements, writing: "The elections are over - good intentions have begun "
The practical result of the negotiations in Athens was the signing of a declaration of friendly relations and good neighborliness and the easing of the visa regime for Turkish citizens. The declaration is not legally binding. But the very fact of its appearance demonstrates its readiness to turn another page of hostility and move along the path, if not of friendship and love, then at least of peace.
During the negotiations between Mitsotakis and Erdogan, many high-flown statements were made, including a series of promises to move “like two captains in calm waters” and the slogan “Let’s turn the Aegean into a peaceful sea!” Perhaps the most objective assessment of the visit was given by Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou : “Recognizing the fact that there are issues on which we have disagreements, it is important to maintain a constructive atmosphere.”
As in all such meetings, the main thing is what remains behind the scenes. Greece received a guarantee that Erdogan would not start a dangerous war for it and flood it with Syrian refugees, which the Turkish president once threatened.
Turkey can count on the fact that the Greeks will not put a spoke in the wheels of Ankara’s European integration and will not create obstacles when discussing the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to the States. Calm on the western borders can improve Turkey's credit rating and attract much-needed investment in the economy.
If we talk about Russia’s interests, then Greek-Turkish reconciliation could become the final point in the process of rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow. The Turkish newspaper Aydinlik believes that after the negotiations in Athens, “Turkey has turned the helm towards the European Union.”
To what extent this is true is difficult to say. Indeed, in addition to Greece, the EU and Turkey have a number of other contradictions - respect for human rights, Ankara’s position on Russia and Ukraine, the EU’s rivalry with Turkey in the Middle East, not to mention Palestine.
Peace between the two shores of the Aegean Sea will not turn Erdogan into a friend of the West overnight. There will be fewer conflicts between them, but it is unlikely that Turkey will blindly follow Western guidelines and deprive itself of the benefits of trade with Russia.
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Posted by badanov 2023-12-09 00:00||
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