Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Wed 05/27/2020 View Tue 05/26/2020 View Mon 05/25/2020 View Sun 05/24/2020 View Sat 05/23/2020 View Fri 05/22/2020 View Thu 05/21/2020
2019-08-07 The Grand Turk
Turkey’s tests of wills in northern Syria
[Rudaw] President Erdogan’s heightened rhetoric over northeastern Syria during the last two weeks indicates The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
intends to invade the area soon. On Sunday Mr. Erdogan said: "We entered Afrin, Jarablus, al-Bab. Now we will enter the (area) east of the Euphrates. We shared this (information) with Russia and the US. As long as harassment fire continues, we cannot remain silent."

Despite Turkish propaganda to the contrary, the Turkish-Syria border in the northeast of Syria remains a good deal calmer and violence free than the Gaza-Israel or Lebanon-Israel border. What Turkey actually wants in the area is therefore not a safe zone but the complete elimination of the Kurdish-led de facto autonomous cantons and a place to resettle the 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.
According to the Daily Sabah: "The Ottoman Turkish military has recently increased its deployment near the Syrian border, including heavy weaponry, armored vehicles and tanks, as it prepares for an imminent offensive against the PKK terror group’s Syrian branch the People’s Protection Units (YPG)."

Continued from Page 4



The Washington Post in turn reported: "The Trump administration has launched a last-ditch effort to head off a Ottoman Turkish invasion of northeast Syria that it expects will come within the next two weeks. With tens of thousands of Ottoman Turkish troops massed near the border, a high-level Defense Department delegation plans to present what US officials describe as a final offer to address Turkey’s concerns at a meeting Monday in Ankara."

Ankara is demanding a "safe zone" some 20-25 miles deep, along the whole of the border. This would place almost all of the heavily populated areas of northeastern Syria, currently governed by the Kurdish-led and PKK-linked Democratic Union Party (PYD), under Ottoman Turkish control.

Towns such as Qamishly (the capital of the region), Kobane (in which the Kurds fought so valiantly to break the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
’s momentum in 2014), Tal Abyad, Ras al-Ayin (Sere Kaniye in Kurdish), Al Malikiya and other major urban hubs of the area all lie within 25 miles of the Ottoman Turkish border.

The Americans are proposing an alternative safe zone nine miles deep and 87 miles long from which Kurdish fighters would be withdrawn. Turkey has rejected this proposal, and the reason is simple: Turkey does not need a safe zone on Syrian territory. The Syrian-Ottoman Turkish border is already one of the most fortified and heavily patrolled borders in the world. A huge barbed wire fence with guard posts every few hundred meters stretches the length of the border, and the flat land the border runs along is heavily mined.

Since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, almost nothing of any significance could be smuggled across the northeastern Ottoman Turkish-Syrian border. When jihadis wanted to cross from Turkey into this area, they did so with the connivance of Ottoman Turkish authorities. Meanwhile,
...back at the revival hall, the SWAT team had finally arrived...
Kurds and others had to find alternative routes across from elsewhere in Syria and Iraq.

This was the case in 2014 when the town of Kobane ‐ straddling the border itself ‐ lay under ISIS siege. Ankara’s refusal to do anything about the jihadis attacking Kobane right on Turkey’s border is what led the B.O. regime to establish its relationship with the PYD ‐ a relationship that eventually led to the liberation of Raqqa and all other ISIS territories in Syria.

Despite Ottoman Turkish propaganda to the contrary, the Ottoman Turkish-Syria border in the northeast of Syria remains a good deal calmer and violence free than the Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamaswith about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
-Israel or Leb-Israel border. What Turkey actually wants in the area is therefore not a safe zone but the complete elimination of the Kurdish-led de facto autonomous cantons and a place to resettle the 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.
In other words, exactly what it has wanted all along: another chunk of Syria that’s Kurd-free and dependent on Erdogan rather than his former BFF Assad, from which he can continue conquering as much of the rest of Syria as can be managed over time.
In other words, Ankara wishes to turn the cantons of Kobane and Jazira into another Afrin. Turkey invaded Afrin in January of 2018, ethnically cleansing hundreds of thousands of Kurds from the area and resettling Arabs and Turkmen from other parts of Syria in their place ‐ including virulently jihadist groups acting as Ankara’s proxies.
See?
Washington therefore faces a simpler choice than it may realize. Washington can acquiesce to the undoing of all the gains it made in Syria. Allowing Turkey into this area would devastate the Kurdish-led forces that undid the "Islamic State" and allow Kobane and Jazira to become like today’s Afrin and Idlib provinces ‐ overrun by jihadi groups under Ottoman Turkish supervision.

The result would allow for either the return of ISIS or its replacement by al Qaeda’s former Syrian wing Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly the al-Nusra
...formally Jabhat an-Nusrah li-Ahli al-Sham (Support Front for the People of the Levant), also known as al-Qaeda in the Levant. They aim to establish a pan-Arab caliphate. Not the same one as the Islamic State, though .. ...
Front) which now dominates Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
(HTS), the preeminent force in Ottoman Turkish-protected Idlib and possibly Afrin soon.

Washington, assuming it does not desire such an outcome, may alternately say ’no’ to Turkey in very clear, unambiguous terms. Anything else invites trouble. A Congressionally-approved no-fly zone over Kobane and Jazira would be sufficient, while a behind-closed-doors American promise to make good on economic sanctions (already earned from Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems) would add to Ankara’s disincentives. At the same time, Washington would continue its commitment to keep the PYD from troubling Turkey over the border.

Turkey might not like the long-term prospect of a PKK-linked Syrian Kurdish-led autonomous region on its border, but plenty of states have learned to live with much worse. Hezbollah in Leb and Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, in Gaza actually launch regular attacks on Israel from their enclaves, which is hardly the case for Turkey and the Syrian Kurds.

Hezbollah and Hamas, both of which Turkey has good relations with, also remain openly committed to Israel’s destruction. The PYD in Syria in contrast insists it only wants to be left alone. Even the PKK maintains it does not want to separate Kurdish areas from Turkey or destroy the Ottoman Turkish state, instead asking for a negotiated peace that would allow it to come down from the mountains.

A true friend of Turkey should therefore push Ankara to moderate its goals, compromise, and finally negotiate an end to its problems.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-08-07 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [185 views ]  Top
 File under: Sublime Porte 

04:52 g(r)omgoru
04:50 g(r)omgoru
04:34 newc
04:18 g(r)omgoru
04:15 g(r)omgoru
04:09 g(r)omgoru
04:01 g(r)omgoru
04:00 g(r)omgoru
03:59 newc
03:45 g(r)omgoru
03:43 g(r)omgoru
03:39 g(r)omgoru
03:38 g(r)omgoru
03:36 g(r)omgoru
03:24 g(r)omgoru
03:23 g(r)omgoru
03:15 g(r)omgoru
03:11 g(r)omgoru
03:07 g(r)omgoru
03:01 g(r)omgoru
02:17 Raj
02:14 Raj
02:05 Raj
01:54 Besoeker

Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
18.207.254.88

Merry-Go-Blog










Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com