Article

2014-09-08 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

A year after Umarov's death, Caucasus insurgency sputters

September 7 marked the first anniversary of the death from poisoning of Doku Umarov, the Chechen field commander who abandoned the cause of an independent Chechen Republic Ichkeria in 2007 and instead proclaimed a Caucasus Emirate (IK) encompassing the entire North Caucasus.

Though Umarov's death has had little impact on the military capabilities of the Islamic insurgency, it nonetheless ushered in a new stage in the evolution of the Chechen-dominated resistance into a supranational force. Reflecting a shift over the past five to seven years of the center of military activity from Chechnya to Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Dagestan, the new IK head, Aliaskhab Kebekov (Amir Ali Abu-Mukhammad) is an Avar, not a Chechen. Kebekov is a theologian and ideologue, rather than an experienced general and military strategist.

Veteran Chechen field commander Makhran Saidov asserted in video footage released last month that "any one of the Vilayet Nokhchiicho [Chechnya] fighters could have become amir in Doku's place. Don't think that we chose a brother from Dagestan for lack of a worthy candidate here or because we are weakened.... We wanted to see at the head of the Caucasus Emirate a man who is knowledgeable and God-fearing.... It's not necessary that he should be a strategist or an experienced warrior."

Even before Umarov's death, the effectiveness of the insurgents' military activity was on the decline. The insurgency has not carried out a major operation anywhere in the region since two audacious attacks in August and October 2010. What is more, it failed to deliver on Umarov's instructions to take "any measures permitted by God" to prevent the success of the Sochi Olympic games.

This failure is not likely to have been a direct consequence of Umarov's demise, given his total lack of skill as a strategist or a tactician. In that respect, the January 2013 deaths of the brothers Khuseyn and Muslim Gakayev and their elite band of fighters constituted a far more serious loss. The limited military capability of the insurgency today is primarily the result of the killing in 2006 of Chechen field commander Shamil Basayev, the strategist behind both the Beslan school seizure and multiple attacks a few months earlier on security forces in Ingushetia.

Human rights watchdog Memorial attributes the marked decline to the exodus of insurgents from the area to fight in Syria.

Posted by ryuge 2014-09-08 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11135 views ] Top

#1 September 7 marked the first anniversary of the death from poisoning of Doku Umarov

Poisoning toppled the insurgengency? Seems to be an effective counterinsurgency/anti-terror technique. Who poisoned him?

Posted by JohnQC 2014-09-08 07:51|| 2014-09-08 07:51|| Front Page Top

#2 Human rights watchdog Memorial attributes the marked decline to the exodus of insurgents from the area to fight in Syria.

Hopefully the local jihadis are exiting other battlefields as well, heading instead for the excitement of being killed in Iraq and Syria. Even if those who survive will have more skills than they arrived with.

Posted by trailing wife 2014-09-08 16:09|| 2014-09-08 16:09|| Front Page Top

#3 A revitalization of the Chechen or pan-Caucasus insurgency is another reason why the ISIS must be destroyed as an organized polity + movement, not just isolated or contained i.e. rendered impotent.

* SIDNEY MORNING HERALD [Australia] WIPING OUT ISIS "IMPOSSIBLE": [Aussie FM] JULIE BISHOP.

ARTIC > FM BISHOP = the ISIS is an IDEOLOGY [movement], NOT JUST A MILITARY FORCE, iff the West cannot defeat or destroy AL-QAEDA ["Core" AQ andor Affiliates] how can it defeat or destroy the ISIS???

* WORLD NEWS > [SCMP] "ISLAMIC STATE" GAINING THE YOUTH VOTE IN SOUTH ASIA, AS AL-QAEDA SEEN AS "TIRED".

AL-QAEDA = "Stale, Tired, + Ineffectual".

Aka "OLD MEN"??? AYMAN has too many white or grey hairs on his beard for the Kiddies to like.

Yokay, I'll say it, "STAAAALLLLLEEEEE"!

Posted by JosephMendiola 2014-09-08 22:55|| 2014-09-08 22:55|| Front Page Top

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