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2003-11-05 -Short Attention Span Theater-
Sol extends a hand: biggest solar flare EVER!
The earthlings were lucky. This time! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Just as solar scientists thought the Sun may be winding down it has unleashed the biggest solar flare ever recorded. It was so energetic that it overloaded the detectors on satellites monitoring the Sun’s surface. The blast was accompanied with a gigantic gas cloud of billions of tonnes of superhot gas being ejected into space - some of it directed at Earth. Researchers are saying that the Sun’s current spate of activity - now 10 days in duration - is the most dramatic and intense ever witnessed on the Sun’s surface.

Powerful solar flares are given an "X" designation. There was an X8 and an X3 event on Sunday. On Monday, there was an X3 flare followed by smaller ones. Last week there were X7 and X10 events that took place back-to-back. Tuesday’s flare went off the scale, researchers say it was "well above X20". This would make it the most powerful ever recorded, surpassing the X20 flares of 2 April 2001 and 16 August 1989.

The major flares have come from sunspot region 486, now officially the most active solar region in recorded solar observational history. Region 486 is being taken over the Sun’s limb by solar rotation. Parts of the latest megaflare occurred beyond the limb. Dr Paal Brekke, deputy project scientist for the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (Soho) Sun-monitoring satellite, told BBC News Online: "I think the last week will go into the history books as one of the most dramatic solar activity periods we have seen in modern times."
Posted by Bulldog 2003-11-05 6:12:20 AM|| || Front Page|| [11140 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Uh..... the Sun is still main sequence right?
Posted by Shipman 2003-11-5 7:33:19 AM||   2003-11-5 7:33:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 So far as we know.

It is somewhat variable, though.
Posted by Robert Crawford  2003-11-5 8:31:49 AM|| [http://www.kloognome.com]  2003-11-5 8:31:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 If Bush had just signed Kyoto, this wouldn't be happening. Right, NMM?
Posted by Steve  2003-11-5 9:12:19 AM||   2003-11-5 9:12:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 "I'll show you rock-bound monkeys Global Warming..."
Posted by Laurence of the Rats  2003-11-5 9:16:42 AM||   2003-11-5 9:16:42 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 the Sun is still main sequence right?

Hmmm, let's see...

Corrupt Pres. survives impeachment... check
Dennis Miller becomes Republican... check
Massive series of solar flares... check

My calculations suggest that the cycles are all peaking in November 2004 -- if the new Pope is Muslim and Dennis Kucinich is elected President, then the Sun will explode shortly thereafter...
Posted by Potiphar Breen 2003-11-5 9:18:03 AM||   2003-11-5 9:18:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 if the new Pope is Muslim and Dennis Kucinich is elected President, then the Sun will explode shortly thereafter...

We can only hope it does in that case....
Posted by CrazyFool  2003-11-5 9:27:49 AM||   2003-11-5 9:27:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 That's one hell of an encore. Better sell your stock in Japanese satellites!

Are we sure Al Qaeda isn't behind this? Or ELF? Or that Santa-Clausian nutjob with the wrench behind the transmission tower sabotage?
Posted by Dar  2003-11-5 9:41:45 AM||   2003-11-5 9:41:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Corrupt Pres. survives impeachment... check
Dennis Miller becomes Republican... check
Massive series of solar flares... check

That's freaky. I didn't know Dennis Miller went Republican.
Posted by Charles  2003-11-5 10:58:15 AM||   2003-11-5 10:58:15 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 I thought we were boycotting the RU486 sunspot region.

Oh, well. Don't blame me: I voted for Kodos.
Posted by Eric Jablow  2003-11-5 12:08:53 PM||   2003-11-5 12:08:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 I'm getting a little tired of running for my life for the last two weeks over these things. Think this time I'll just sit tight and hope for the best.
Posted by tu3031 2003-11-5 12:27:34 PM||   2003-11-5 12:27:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Sol is nominally 1% variable, IIRC.

Essentially, Sol is ringing. The shortest harmonics are 11 years, and some have been documented at 500 years or longer. It could well have harmonics of 50,000 years. All these harmonics add up, producing varying levels of sunspot activity. On top of this, Earth's orbit is slightly erratic, which accounts for ice ages.

The best book I've found on the subject is "The Sun in Time" by Giampapa, Matthews and Sonnett. Warning, it's heavy reading. My only real beef with it is that it does not include any estimation of where we are in the cycles.

As for Dennis Miller, I've always thought he was a Republican at heart.
Posted by Dishman  2003-11-5 12:36:42 PM||   2003-11-5 12:36:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 It seems to me that to predict the cycles of the sun, one could use a mathematical equation called a Fourier Series, which is the sum of a periodic function, such as a sine wave and a bunch of harmonics. In order to predict the sunspot activity, we need to know all the cycles. We have the 11 year cycle figured out, but long term ones are beyond our collective memory and span of observation.
Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-11-5 2:16:34 PM||   2003-11-5 2:16:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 My only real beef with it is that it does not include any estimation of where we are in the cycles.

What? I knew it... no way to know if we've slipped out of the main sequence? Take back the damn rocks... I blame this all on the Kennedy tax cuts.
(Staying on message)
Posted by Shipman 2003-11-5 4:34:30 PM||   2003-11-5 4:34:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 About 5 years ago I went looking for the very same calculation, and couldn't find it. It's worth noting, however, that sunspot activity calculations were heavily based their impact on temperature.
Posted by Dishman  2003-11-5 6:04:26 PM||   2003-11-5 6:04:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Some professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem has caluclated there are at least 22 different cycles, which possibly change every 23 million years as the Earth passes through the gap between the spiral arms of the Milky Way. Some of those cycles are as long as 12,000 years, IIRC. A different article that I read on TCS stated that cosmic ray activity also affected both solar stability and directly impacted climate on Earth. I think we're at the stage in climate studies where we're just beginning to understand the question, and are still trying to collect enough data to make a first approximation. NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE enough to make long-term predictions, or even rough approximations. This is one reason why I find Kyoto so offensive - we're told we have to make drastic lifestyle changes, when we don't even understand what's going on, or why.
Posted by Old Patriot  2003-11-5 7:56:47 PM|| [http://users.codenet.net/mweather/default.htm]  2003-11-5 7:56:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 I'm surprised that this hasn't been blamed on Bush not signing the Kyoto treaty yet!
Posted by Dev  2003-11-5 11:22:37 PM||   2003-11-5 11:22:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 OP---Great post. Gets to the heart of the matter(s).
Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-11-5 11:51:58 PM||   2003-11-5 11:51:58 PM|| Front Page Top

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