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2003-06-09 Iran
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Rumblings afoot in Azerbaijan
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Washington officials continue to look for a way to dislodge the clerical leadership of Iranâs Islamic Republic. The latest ploy may be to inflame passions in the most politically active part of Iran-Azerbaijan. Administration officials have been meeting quietly with Mahmoud Ali Chehregani, who heads the Southern Azerbaijan National Awakeness Movement which is operating inside Iran. Although, according to the Washington Times, defense officials emphasized their meetings were not aimed at supporting or encouraging a change in Iranâs government, it is hard to believe such an assertion.
| No, no! Really! We wouldn't do anything like that... |
It is now no secret that the Bush administration would like to see âregime changeâ in Iran. However, military planners know that an Iraq-style invasion could not win in a military conflict with Iranian troops.
| Sure it would. It just wouldn't look like the one that rolled over the Iraqis. We've done it twice in two years, three times in 12 years, and still they don't believe it... |
Therefore the most satisfactory strategy for the White House hawks will be to try to find an indigenous resistance movement and provide it with financial, possibly logistical, support and hope for the best.
| The Northern Alliance approach... |
Chehregani seems ideal. He is an academic (a linguist), and a charismatic figure. He was a popular Parliament representative from Azerbaijan, elected with 600,000 votes. He was imprisoned three years ago for his strong protests against the Islamic regime, but freed with the help of Amnesty International and a letter from UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. More important, he espouses a secular, democratic government for Iran.
| Sounds ideal for our purposes... |
Azerbaijan is fertile ground for a new Iranian political movement. It has traditionally been the part of Iran with the loosest connections to Tehran. Although culturally Iranian, the majority of its population speaks Azeri  a Turkic language. Armenian, Assyrian and Kurdish communities make up significant minority populations in the region. 
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Posted by Fred Pruitt 2003-06-09 11:47 pm||
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