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2003-04-24 Korea

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Posted by sonic 2003-04-24 01:49 pm|| || Front Page|| [15 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Now, let's breathlessly await the Albright - Christopher - Clinton crowd state that President Bush's rhetorical "Axis of Evil" phrase drove the North Koreans to do this. This 1993 treaty with North Korea is our generation's version of the Munich Agreement (handing over my homeland of Czechoslovakia to the Nazis). Is there a picture of Madeline Albright somewhere holding a piece of paper aloft and stating "I believe it is peace for our time... Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."

Posted by ColoradoConservative 2003-04-24 14:13:49|| 2003-04-24 14:13:49|| Front Page Top

#2 I always figured that the Korean Conflict wouldn't be resumed, but now I'm not so certain. I figured we would just wait it out (containment)and eventually, N. Korea would fail and then acheive success (Democratize). That isn't gonna happen with China still there supporting them. If they suddenly behive like Vietnam, (stop threatening their neighbors, and everybody else for that matter) we might be O.K.
Do we wait for China to go the way of Russia? (Not that Russia has really come that far) Or, do we look for a resumtion of the conflict after "W" gets re-elected?
If that's the case, when do we get to Syria? Before I presume but, we appear to be a long way away from that yet.
Now, if Syrias' time comes up this fall.....
How do we rebuild three countries at once?
I would like to see N. Korea go the way of the DoDo Bird, but I just don't know out how to do it. We obviously want to get to them before they can build up their military. How does the administration accomplish that?
O.K. Rantburgers, let's hear some suggestions.

Posted by Mike N. 2003-04-24 14:36:50|| 2003-04-24 14:36:50|| Front Page Top

#3 I don't think there is a picture of Albright with a piece of paper aloft, but I'm sure there is one of her dancing with the Dear Leader. Ugh. Imagine them doing the Electric Slide......
As for my totally unqualified opinion re: Nkors, let them rant a little more. I don't think anyone really was surprised by the nuke announcement (they've been hinting at that for a while). Let China deal with them for a while. We've got plenty to do with Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria/Iran. Encourage Japan and Skor to take a few more preparations for their own defense in the meantime. Keep one or two carriers in the vicinity. Wait them out.

Posted by Baba Yaga 2003-04-24 15:02:27|| 2003-04-24 15:02:27|| Front Page Top

#4 Well, if they really have nukes they hold a significant blackmail card over SKor and Seoul in particular, not to mention Japan and parts of the US. Thus, "containment" and "deterrence" are probably the best of some unfortunate choices.

My suggestion would be to support Japan's rearmament and nuclearization - something that's been talked about by the Japanese hardliners in recent times.

In addition to Japanese rearmament, we guarantee SKor's and Japan's security, build up our forces in the region "just in case", withdraw all monetary and humanitarian support from NKor (cruel, but in the hopes that if the situation gets bad enough the people will turn on Kimmie & Co. or the government will collapse), warn them very seriously that if they use their nukes they'll end up as glowing green glass, and stand back and hope for the best.

The only problem is I don;t think that this will work as I'm of the opinion that there are no sane people running NKor. I keep remembering some lines from the old movie Pork Chop Hill (Gregory Peck) and, although the generals and diplomats were talking about the Chinese sitting across the table from them, I think the NKors are just as recalcitrant. They're willing to trade lives by the hundreds of thousands and seem confident that we aren't willing to do the same.

Posted by FOTSGreg 2003-04-24 15:05:37|| 2003-04-24 15:05:37|| Front Page Top

#5 I don't know how we incentivize the Japanese to re-militarize. They've grown rich under our nuclear umbrella. I can't see them changing the status quo. Plus a re-armed Japan pisses off the Chinese and all of our other allies.

How about a deal with the Chinese? Blockade NK with the intent of bringing its final collapse. South Korea absorbs the North (with massive economic assistance from the US and Japanese), which remains a de-militarized zone. US troops leave the peninsula at some pre-determined date after the collapse. Which in reality just frees them up for more important things.

Posted by 11A5S 2003-04-24 15:20:01|| 2003-04-24 15:20:01|| Front Page Top

#6 mike - it depends on your view of the relative short and medium term threats from PRC and NKOR - if you think that PRC has essentially moderate medium term goals (economic development and gradual extension of a regional sphere influence) then you ENGAGE China, and one of your key issues/demands/requests is that they help you contain/disarm/dissolve NKOR (which of 3 depends on how urgent NKOR seems, and your commitments elsewhere.) If you see PRC as short to medium term threat (likely to invade Taiwan, as prelude to drive for global power)then pressuring China is more important than what happens on the Korean peninsula, and so you wait for China to do a Russia, while accepting that NKOR has nukes, hope they dont use them or sell them.

If China is worthy of engagement, but reluctant to act aggresively toward NKOR, then the threat of Japanese rearmament becomes additional leverage over PRC.

The nukes are not really that much of a threat to SKOR - Seoul is already vulnerable to total destruction by NKOR conventional artillery - that seems to be the reason the SKOR's dont sympathize as much as you might expect with out position - they see us risking a conventional war that would devastate them essentially to prevent NKOR from putting nukes on the market.

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-04-24 15:20:39|| 2003-04-24 15:20:39|| Front Page Top

#7 The first thing we should do is very publicly get our boys out of SKor and the region ie Japan...they are simply sitting ducks for Kimmie Nuke and his wild anticts.

This would allow us to take conventional preemptive first strike measures from the carrier's off shore with the HOPES that the NKor's couldnt hit CA or AK on the west coast and would not retaliate against SKor or Japan because they did nothing and would risk bringing them into the war. We simultaneously tell the NKors that we would retaliate nuclear should they fire a nuke at anyone.

I understand that the Aegis system has been successfully used to intercept long range missiles if they fire when the long range missle is climbing. We could line the coast of NKor with Aegis class cruisers to protect Japan and enforce a blockade to strangle NKor economically. We could load up SKor with Patriot batteries to protect them from anything flying.

I think we have to do something militarily as we can not allow Kimmie Nuke to posess something like this.

Posted by Mustang 2003-04-24 15:33:27|| 2003-04-24 15:33:27|| Front Page Top

#8 FOTSGreg has the main point---There are no sane people running NK. They have not learned, unable to learn, or not willing to learn the lessons of Iraq. There is not alot we can do about NKor EXCEPT we have to put the monkey on the back of CHINA. They are the only ones left that have any significant spigot keeping Kimmies oil burners going. China cuts off the supplies, then Kimmie kraters. If China is unable or unwilling to do something, THEN Japan will have to rearm. At least we have a lever w/China there. The only low destruction way out of this deal is to have NK collapse from within. We need to basically blockade NK shipping to cut off their means of foreign exchange. That means hassling their unflagged tubs they send hither and thither.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-04-24 15:44:55|| 2003-04-24 15:44:55|| Front Page Top

#9 Is a rearmed Japan enough to scare the PRC into selling out NKor? It seems to me that North Korea is more like a subsidiary of the PRC than a dependent.

Posted by Mike N. 2003-04-24 16:46:36|| 2003-04-24 16:46:36|| Front Page Top

#10 If the Aegis intercepts as advertised, I'd take out their next missile test. We still haven't seen a nuke tested successfully, have we? Unless the Pak tests were NK models.

Posted by Frank G 2003-04-24 17:19:41|| 2003-04-24 17:19:41|| Front Page Top

#11 Couple of points.
1) Japan has already made the decision to re-arm. It's going to take several years, maybe even a couple of decades, to get to what they consider an adequate "defensive capability". Their recent launch of spy satellites was primarily aimed at three enemies: NKorea, which if it has nukes poses a horrendous threat to EVERY Japanese city; China, which they consider a threat to their economic and trade empire; and Russia, which still occupies two areas Japan considers "its" territory - the Kuriles and Sakalain Island. Their first priority will be anti-air and anti-missile defense, followed by a strong offensive-capability (I.E., carrier task group) Navy, and finally by a growing land-based, high-tech army similar to what the US used in Iraq.
2) Japan's re-arming will scare the bejesus out of China, which still remembers Japanese occupation of most of its coastal areas. Russia, too, is getting nervous: it's far eastern areas are extremely vulnerable, and if Vladivostok is neutralized, the Russians are totally out of the Pacific game.
3) Japan's final willingness to talk with SKorea about war reparations, and in fact making quite a few (albeit token) payments, is easing the friction between these two states. Closer relations between SKorea and Japan would send shock waves not only through NKorea, but China and Russia as well.
4) The best thing the US could do is to step back, tell Japan to go ahead (maybe even clandestinely assisting them in a few areas), and watch the fall-out (not literally of course). Japan has nuclear power stations, and could begin mass-producing nuclear weapons in a matter of a year or two. They already have a space-launch capability (RE, those spy satellites), and they could easily modify that capability to launch nuclear weapons. The last thing the nations ringing the Pacific Basin want is an aggressive, nuclear-capable Japan.

Posted by Old Patriot 2003-04-24 17:28:17|| 2003-04-24 17:28:17|| Front Page Top

#12 Japan and South Korea should both announce through leaks or lower level politicians that they are considering dropping out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. This will send a chill through the PRC.

The US should inform the PRC that eventually the Koreas will unite and the PRC will no longer be the puppetmaster. When that happens, does the PRC really want the new Korea to be angry at them, and nuclear armed?

The PRC is the key to the whole thing. They can lock down NK and have so far been playing games.

Posted by Yank 2003-04-24 18:30:07|| 2003-04-24 18:30:07|| Front Page Top

#13 liberalhawk: the SK position seems to be more delusion than fear. If they were afraid we'd be able to count on them more.

Posted by someone 2003-04-24 20:01:33|| 2003-04-24 20:01:33|| Front Page Top

#14 liberalhawk says, in part:

"...If China is worthy of engagement, but reluctant to act aggresively toward NKOR, then the threat of Japanese rearmament becomes additional leverage over PRC."

The threat of Japanese rearmament also becomes a motivation that China doesn't really need right now... to become serious about nuclear ballistic missile development. This is not a motive we would want them to have. China has been "cool" about ICBM development, because it is so pointless and wasteful (one of the chief lessons of the Soviet debacle). They have plenty of places to use cash, and there is no real return on ICBM development UNLESS you feel seriously threatened.

I'm guessing a nuclear North Korea, under current management, poses at least as much of a threat to PRC as it does to the US. The Chicoms are closer, and have forsaken the one true Stalinist path. Commies are always hardest on their own doctrinal waywards (as religions are always cruelest to heretics).

"The nukes are not really that much of a threat to SKOR - Seoul is already vulnerable to total destruction by NKOR conventional artillery..."

In all honesty, do you think this is a defensible statement? There are degrees of "total destruction". Ask the Japanese. To be fair, more destruction was meted to Japan by conventional explosives and incendiaries, than by both nukes. But it's difficult to picture NKOR achieving anything like the firebombing of Japan, or anything close to "total destruction", with their conventional delivery systems, vs. the inevitable US/SKOR countermeasures.

A single nuke would be WAY worse than anything NKOR krazies could accomplish with conventionals.

Posted by Mark IV 2003-04-24 21:25:43|| 2003-04-24 21:25:43|| Front Page Top

#15 NKors have something like 7,000 artillery pieces in range of Seoul. Even with brilliant counter-battery fire, they're likely to be able to get off several shells per piece. That works out to being in the multiple kT range of conventional explosives.

Posted by Dishman 2003-04-24 21:55:51|| 2003-04-24 21:55:51|| Front Page Top

#16 My feeling is that China might - and I do mean MIGHT - start getting serious now. From what I've read, Beijing is very worried that the Americans DO mean business, and they don't want to see the US launching an attack on North Korea. China thinks we are as crazy as Kimmie, and that might go a long way in encouraging the PRC to use its leverage in Pyongyang to greater effect. Still, perhaps I should start booking a flight out of here :)

Posted by The Marmot 2003-04-24 23:10:39|| [marmotshole.blogspot.com] 2003-04-24 23:10:39|| Front Page Top

#17 It won't be pretty either way, that's for sure.

NK aggression and the potential cost in SK/US lives is the best, and thus scariest, case for preemptive tac nukes there could be.

So, I guess the alternative is the old buy off, $educe, wait 'em out, and hope.

It all just sounds so french.

Posted by Mark IV 2003-04-24 23:51:36|| 2003-04-24 23:51:36|| Front Page Top

15:57 my name is Jane Baner
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