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2022-10-07 -Short Attention Span Theater-
Three in four Americans say U.S. should support Ukraine despite Russian threats, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
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Posted by Snash Shairt9621 2022-10-07 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [10809 views ]  Top

#1 An “online poll,” eh? No integrity or quality problems there, no sir!

Here’s a genuine poll of verifiable actual U.S. voters.

Americans Support U.S. Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine
Sep 27, 2022
Quincy Institute

It shows that US likely voters oppose continuing the war and favor negotiations by a margin of two to one. Even if it means Ukraine gives up a sizeable chunk of territory.

Not even close. Only Democrat voters have a sizeable minority that opposes negotiations.

A majority of American likely voters support U.S. pursuing negotiations “as soon as possible to end the war in Ukraine, and nearly half believe the Biden administration and Congress need to do more diplomatically to help end the war.”

Posted by Chaim 2022-10-07 08:31||   2022-10-07 08:31|| Front Page Top

#2 Bogus link.
Posted by Skidmark 2022-10-07 08:47||   2022-10-07 08:47|| Front Page Top

#3 What's an 'American likely voter'? Is that like a guy whose life insurance and oxygen have both run out? Or a Mexi-can? Just askin'.
Posted by Dron66046 2022-10-07 08:56||   2022-10-07 08:56|| Front Page Top

#4 Bull Crap Poll.
Posted by Vespasian Ebboting9735 2022-10-07 09:00||   2022-10-07 09:00|| Front Page Top

#5 Americans Support U.S. Diplomacy to End War in Ukraine

Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft poll conducted September 16-19, 2022
survey of 1,215 likely voters

Key finding — majorities across all types of US likely voters favor
negotiations and compromise, as soon as possible.

Key question: Would you support or oppose the United States pursuing diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible
to end the war in Ukraine, even if it means Ukraine making some compromises with Russia?
Strongly support or Somewhat support negotiations: 57%
Don't know: 11%
Somewhat oppose or Strongly oppose negotiations: 32%
Net favoring negotiations: +25

Partisanship:
Democrat: +33 favor negotiations (62% to 29%)
Independent/3rd party: +23 favor negotiations (56% to 33%)
Republican: +22 favor negotiations (54% to 32%)



Posted by Chaim 2022-10-07 09:11||   2022-10-07 09:11|| Front Page Top

#6 Likely voters provide the best estimate of election outcomes. The worst estimates come from surveys of random individuals who, in many or even most cases, are not even registered to vote — let alone actually going to vote. Only about 60% or so of registered voters actually show up and vote in US elections.

The Gallup polling organization uses the 2004 presidential election to illustrate the benefit of using likely voters only in their polling samples:

“Here's an example. Gallup's final poll before the 2004 election showed the following:

Registered voters:
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 48%

Likely voters:
George W. Bush 49%
John Kerry 47%

“Kerry was ahead among registered voters by 2 points, while Bush was ahead among likely voters by 2 points.

“The final election result? Bush won the popular vote over Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points, almost exactly what our likely voter estimate predicted. Had we reported only registered voters, we would have estimated a Kerry victory. In other words, had all registered voters turned out in 2004, Kerry would have been elected president. But all registered voters didn't turn out. There was a Republican advantage among those who did turn out. And Bush won.”
Posted by Chaim 2022-10-07 09:22||   2022-10-07 09:22|| Front Page Top

#7 I don't respond to poll calls. I bet most of my bent don't, either.
Posted by Frank G 2022-10-07 09:41||   2022-10-07 09:41|| Front Page Top

#8 Americans Support U.S. Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine

Link fixed. Chaim, you need to put the web page address, the URL, in the dropdown box, not the article headline. But you gave precisely the information needed to find the article you referenced, so thank you. Clearly you are climbing the learning curve.

What's an 'American likely voter'?

A legally registered voter with a history of actually voting and the intention to continue, Dron. Lots of registered voters never actually do — registering is easy, actually going to the polls or filling out and sending off a mail-in vote take effort.

According to Gallup, actual voters generally skew older, better educated, and Republican. Some elections also goose turnout among groups with whose special interests are addressed that time round — Blacks or Hispanics, say, or union members.
Posted by trailing wife 2022-10-07 09:45||   2022-10-07 09:45|| Front Page Top

#9 ^ Just ‘cause you’re bent don’t mean your bent don’t bend others’ ears.

Man up and withdraw!
Posted by Slolush Guelph4787 2022-10-07 09:46||   2022-10-07 09:46|| Front Page Top

#10 No need for your post but appreciated anyway, Trailing Wife.

The Quincy Institute poll’s results make sense when you consider how batshit crazy and corrupt the Washington foreign policy Blob is. They’re completely out of touch with the American people on this issue… as they are on so many issues. They’ve lied so much, and spun the truth so much, that they’ve convinced themselves the people support them when the truth is that Americans want negotiations now.

Marcus Stanley of the Quincy Institute explains the disconnect between the public’s appetite for negotiations and Washington’s appetite for escalation and warmongering:

Americans Are Running Out of Patience With Biden's Approach to Putin's War
Newsweek
By Katharine Fung
10/1/22

“Polls have been consistent in finding that people faulted Russia for what are some pretty outrageous and illegal actions, and that they support assistance to Ukraine," Marcus Stanley, Quincy's advocacy director, told Newsweek. "But what people have not been asking about is whether people favored seeking a diplomatic or negotiated solution to the war."

He noted that while people try to pit diplomacy strategies and support for Ukraine as mutually exclusive approaches, he doesn't believe that to be the case. Stanley said that the poll, which has a margin of error of 3 points, was not asking people to choose between one or the other, but questioning if there was broad support for combining the current support for Ukraine's sovereignty with peace talks.

“We found quite strong public support for the idea of pairing our assistance to Ukraine with a diplomatic or negotiation track," Stanley said. However, he noted, "In Washington, D.C., it would be considered almost a radical perspective to say that we should even be talking to Russia at all."

Posted by Chaim 2022-10-07 09:50||   2022-10-07 09:50|| Front Page Top

#11 You're telling me Reuters pulled 1,000 active users? Must have issued a memo.

Must have read the comment about never seeing a poll with less than a 2:1 in favor ratio.
Posted by swksvolFF 2022-10-07 10:50||   2022-10-07 10:50|| Front Page Top

#12 It's possible to support Ukraine and support the idea of diplomacy at the same time. Everybody supports the idea of diplomacy as long as they get what they want out of it. And diplomacy works for absolutely nobody that doesn't have other means at their disposal.
Posted by AuburnTom 2022-10-07 12:27||   2022-10-07 12:27|| Front Page Top

#13 Asking if you support diplomacy is the same as asking if you support world piece. Endless empty calories to feed one's self esteem.
Posted by Snash Shairt9621 2022-10-07 12:39||   2022-10-07 12:39|| Front Page Top

#14 piece = peace. Cue the Marx Brothers' Hitler routine.
Posted by Snash Shairt9621 2022-10-07 12:41||   2022-10-07 12:41|| Front Page Top

#15 Whirled Peas
Posted by Frank G 2022-10-07 13:05||   2022-10-07 13:05|| Front Page Top

#16  No need for your post but appreciated anyway, Trailing Wife.

‘Struth, Chaim — you submitted your useful explanation while I was still typing... Possibly there was also a morning nap in the middle of my process. ;-)

But with regard to polls like this, it seems to me America is a democratic republic instead of a direct democracy for a reason. If changing our involvement in Ukraine is that important to those who actually vote, as opposed to thinking that going the negotiation route would be awfully nice but other concerns are more urgent, we’ll see the result in the election only a month away. Polling only indicates how things probably will go — like so much else, until it happens in real life we can’t know how factors we didn’t think to measure and calculate in the model will effect the outcome.
Posted by trailing wife 2022-10-07 13:13||   2022-10-07 13:13|| Front Page Top

#17 Whirled Peas

I always liked these bumper stickers:

Visualize putting your phone down and driving.

If you would rather be Fishing, Boating, Dancing, etc., Please Go Do That Now.

Keep Honking. I am reloading as fast as I can.

Driver carries on $50 in ammunition.

Go ahead and laugh. Your daughter is riding with me.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-10-07 13:23||   2022-10-07 13:23|| Front Page Top

#18 There's also a giant advertising campaign in progress to convince US citizens not only to get completely involved, but to expect a nuclear exchange in the process.

Its why you see polls like this, why radiation sickness medicine ads all popping up in social medias, and stories like "Why Nuclear War would be good at preventing global warming."
Posted by swksvolFF 2022-10-07 13:24||   2022-10-07 13:24|| Front Page Top

#19 It seems all that globaloney is coming home to roost. I, like lots of people in the USA, would like everyone else on the planet to deal with their problems on their own. Without asking me for money or threatening to blow me up, thank you.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-10-07 13:27||   2022-10-07 13:27|| Front Page Top

#20 Thank you, Chaim and TW.
Posted by Dron66046 2022-10-07 14:03||   2022-10-07 14:03|| Front Page Top

#21 You answer questions we didn’t know to ask, Dron — we can in return jointly and severally answer something you asked. :-)
Posted by trailing wife 2022-10-07 14:23||   2022-10-07 14:23|| Front Page Top

#22 Sadly.. the war Pr0n videos from this war are much more violent with flying bodies and tank turrets than even the most violent Hollyweed film or many games. Likely game makers and Hollyweed are drooling... and a nuke exchange would even provide better visuals for both games and film... Just saying...

Posted by 3dc 2022-10-07 14:37||   2022-10-07 14:37|| Front Page Top

#23 Because of the mobilization of western liberal democracy's intel assets to dominate the virtual domain (NATO Concepts: Hybrid War & Cognitive Warfare) - any online poll will be severely compromised and biased as these assets mobilize and brigade the poll to skew it in their favor.
Posted by mossomo 2022-10-07 15:11||   2022-10-07 15:11|| Front Page Top

#24 and a nuke exchange would even provide better visuals for both games and film

People would stay home, riddled with fear, watching TV all day long for updates, and cede all sorts of allowances to The Fed. Imagine the Compliance!

My favorite episode of The Covid was 15Fteen Days. Its the one when all the cosplayers were "Falling Dead" in the streets, then the proposal for Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve. Little Easter Egg was how a board game called Pandemic just happened to appear during that "temporary but necessary" lockdown. Fun for the whole family!
Posted by swksvolFF 2022-10-07 15:51||   2022-10-07 15:51|| Front Page Top

#25 Little Easter Egg was how a board game called Pandemic just happened to appear during that "temporary but necessary" lockdown. Fun for the whole family!

BS. That game was around for years before the Wuflu. We pulled out our copy to play for the occasion. I'm sure they took advantage and reprinted it, though.

< /game-nerd>
Posted by Nero 2022-10-07 16:05||   2022-10-07 16:05|| Front Page Top

#26 Musk called for negotiations, and they shat all over him. Now those deranged little fuckers are going after Musk’s ISP network. They’re insane

Ukrainian troops report 'catastrophic' outages of Musk's Starlink along front line
Posted by Palermo 2022-10-07 16:25||   2022-10-07 16:25|| Front Page Top

#27 Thank you Nero.

I get off the beaten path a bit, but I'd never heard of it, then couldn't get away from the ads. Graphic style looked pretty modern so many that is it.

Looking at it, kind of reminded me of (the board game) Scotland Yard, more elaborate, and not chasing a human around.
Posted by swksvolFF 2022-10-07 16:25||   2022-10-07 16:25|| Front Page Top

#28 #26 Musk called for negotiations, and they shat all over him. Now those deranged little fuckers are going after Musk’s ISP network. They’re insane


Saw this report earlier today...didn't think much of it. Looks like it is relevant now.

"Locals report STRANGE glow in the sky over Belgorod, West Russia.

Some SUSPECT that this may be from Peresvet anti-satellite laser weapon."
Posted by Tennessee 2022-10-07 17:12||   2022-10-07 17:12|| Front Page Top

#29 Musk called for negotiations, and they shat all over him. Now those deranged little fuckers are going after Musk’s ISP network. They’re insane

If you or the idiots who wrote that article knew a thing about how Starlink worked, they'd understand that it's being turned on or off based on the location of the antenna. The antenna MUST know its location for the satellite tracking to work.

Looks like Starlink is being enabled or disabled in Ukraine based on the approximate battle lines, to make sure the orcs can't use any captured units. IOW, the Ukes are advancing fast enough they can't keep up. (Starlink probably has more intel on the location of the battle lines than anyone outside the Uke command or the NRO.)

Do better, troll. You don't want to end up with proles toting a rusty AK, do you?
Posted by Nero 2022-10-07 17:17||   2022-10-07 17:17|| Front Page Top

#30 *Nero, it was the 2008 print I saw. Thank you, about two months into it and looking back that seemed...weird.
Posted by swksvolFF 2022-10-07 17:25||   2022-10-07 17:25|| Front Page Top

#31 Playing Pandemic in the middle of the COVID panic certainly added a bit of frisson...
Posted by Nero 2022-10-07 17:28||   2022-10-07 17:28|| Front Page Top

#32 Nero has got it. Starlink in turned off in Russian occupied areas so they can't buy smuggle Starlink kits and use them.
Posted by Snash Shairt9621 2022-10-07 18:03||   2022-10-07 18:03|| Front Page Top

#33 You’re arguing with the wrong people, joker. Tell it to the Ukrainians. “Catastrophic” is the Ukrainians’ characterization, not mine.

From the pro-Ukraine Kyiv Independent: Ukrainian Troops Report -Starlink Outages Hindering Counteroffensive

“Ukrainian troops have encountered issues with their Starlink communication devices on the frontline, leading to a “catastrophic” loss in communication, reports the Financial Times, citing unnamed Ukrainian officials.”
Posted by Palermo 2022-10-07 18:36||   2022-10-07 18:36|| Front Page Top

#34 Oops.

Quite the Epic Fail
Posted by Big Thetch9046 2022-10-07 18:55||   2022-10-07 18:55|| Front Page Top

23:58 Angaigum Thretch1250
23:56 Dron66046
23:53 Herman Speating6959
23:52 Dron66046
22:48 Omoror
22:45 Omomor
22:25 3dc
22:23 Omomor
22:19 3dc
22:14 3dc
22:12 3dc
22:08 3dc
21:59 3dc
20:49 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
20:41 magpie
20:34 ed in texas
20:16 trailing wife
19:57 Palermo
19:54 Palermo
19:48 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
19:12 Palermo
18:58 Palermo
18:55 Big Thetch9046
18:45 Goober Omang2222
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