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2022-06-21 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Fighting for Severodonetsk is already underway in the industrial area
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Posted by badanov 2022-06-21 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [10814 views ]  Top

#1 Re the 10 to 1 Russian advantage in artillery:
Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.
50,000 rounds a day might sound like a lot, but it was well within Germany's industrial capacity a century ago. During WWI, it fired 222m rounds over 4 years, or ~150K rounds a day.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2022-06-21 00:05||   2022-06-21 00:05|| Front Page Top

#2 The small arms analogy would be if 1 side had muzzle loading muskets and the other side had M-16's. Given that roughly 2/3 of friendly casualties in WWII were inflicted by enemy mortars and howitzers, it's clear why the 10-1 Russian superiority needs to be whittled down by Western supplies if the Ukrainians are to merely hold, never mind advance.
Artillery and mortar fire together accounted for 65 percent of the total casualties in the European and Mediterranean theaters
Posted by Zhang Fei 2022-06-21 00:13||   2022-06-21 00:13|| Front Page Top

#3 Source for German artillery round usage in WWI.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2022-06-21 00:34||   2022-06-21 00:34|| Front Page Top

#4 Here's a guy who actually knows what he's talking about -- as opposed to the blowhard blogger above: Colonel Markus Reisner of Austria. His latest: Heavy Weapons To Ukraine

Col. Reisner is sympathetic to the Ukrainians but he doesn't lie or bullshit. He makes clear that the proposed weapons deliveries -- which he describes clearly in precise detail -- will not make a difference in the Donbas.

This is for multiple reasons:
1) the Russians destroy many of them before they can even be used
2) the Russians capture many of them
3) the Ukrainians lack training in how to use them and their few experienced operators are suffering extremely high casualty rates
4) the quantities are far too small to make a difference even if the Ukrainians were properly trained on them
Posted by Palmerston 2022-06-21 00:52||   2022-06-21 00:52|| Front Page Top

#5 This Austrian guy is just Douglas MacGregor without the military experience. A Redditor comments:
That might come as a shock maybe, but what I've gleaned from his previous videos is that, first, aside from social media, he doesn't have any additional intelligence sources. Yes, that dude is, just like all of us, working with the stuff OSINT aggregators are putting together.

Second, for whatever reason, his intelligence is based to a larger part on pro-Ru sources. At least that's how most of his last few videos looked like to me.

And third, that dude might appear competent, but he hasn't gotten the best track record. He got interviewed by the Austrian television on TV in February and was like "This is going to be over in a couple of days", and some time later, when it was obvious that it wasn't, he was interviewed again and was like "Well, they're f**ked in a month".

The only difference between you and me and Colonel Reisner is that he got a military education. But from what he's presenting in his videos, he doesn't seem to be privy to any additional information we don't have, but the information he relies on seems to have a pro-Ru slant.

Anyway:

When he's saying in his video that the Kherson bridgehead got destroyed, then I'll bet you a 100 $ that this is not Austrian spy satellites or Austrian HUMINT assets on the ground which let him come to this conclusion. That's pro-Ru OSINT sources, I'm sure of that. And these have claimed for weeks that the Kherson bridgehead has been destroyed.

However, for some reason, all the pontoon bridges the Ukrainians put up there, still exist. Why would that be if they got wiped out?
Posted by Zhang Fei 2022-06-21 01:09||   2022-06-21 01:09|| Front Page Top

#6 I think there's this perception that the Austrians are neutral, that they're this cuddly teddy-bearish country. In reality, it's a nest of unrepentant Nazis. Real Nazis, not the LARPers who defended Mariupol alongside Ukrainian Jews from the Russian forces besieging it, on orders from a Jewish President, many of whose closest advisers are also Jewish. Kurt Waldheim wasn't a Nazi Party member, but he was on scene with the relevant Wehrmacht units when Greeks and Serbs were massacred in large numbers. Austria elected him president anyway.

Jorg Haider became a bigwig in Austrian politics because in spite of his repeated associations with Nazis:
Haider was frequently criticized for statements in praise of Nazi policies, or considered antisemitic.[43] International reports on Haider often referred to his remark that the Nazi government had produced a "proper employment policy" as compared to the SPÖ government. He was forced to resign as governor of the Carinthia province in 1991 because of the incident. Haider years later apologized.[15] On one occasion during a parliamentary debate, Haider described World War II concentration camps as "punishment camps".[15]

On several occasions Haider made remarks about Austrian World War II veterans that were represented as broad endorsement of the war and of the Nazi SS. Speaking to a gathering of veterans from several countries in 1990, he said that the veterans were "decent people of good character" and "remain true to their convictions". Haider stated that he did not specifically address Waffen-SS veterans with his remarks.[15] On another occasion, he said, "the Waffen-SS was part of the Wehrmacht (German military) and because of that it deserves every honour and recognition".[44] (The Waffen-SS was not part of the Wehrmacht.)[45]

In 2000, at a gathering of Wehrmacht veterans in Ulrichsberg, including Waffen-SS veterans, he said, "Those who come to Ulrichsberg are not the old Nazis. They are not neo-Nazis, they are not criminals."[citation needed]

Haider also compared the deportation of Jews by the Nazis to the expulsion of Sudeten Germans from Czechoslovakia after World War II.[46] His detractors pointed to a punning reference to the leader of the Jewish community of Vienna, Ariel Muzicant; Haider indicated that he did not understand how someone named Ariel (also the name of a popular laundry detergent) could have gathered so much filth, implying the real estate agent's business methods were crooked.[47] Haider's critics characterized the remark as antisemitic.[47]

He maintained that Muzicant faked antisemitic hate letters to himself. He later withdrew this and other accusations, and apologized for his "derogatory remarks".[48]

Haider was closely watched by Mossad, the Israeli secret service; FPÖ secretary general Peter Sichrovsky – a Jewish-Austrian politician and formerly one of Haider's closest aides – had gathered inside information on Haider's controversial contacts with prominent "Arab dictators".[49]

Due to Haider's perceived contacts to Holocaust deniers, the Israeli Foreign Ministry on 29 September 2008 declared it was heavily concerned about the 2008 Austrian elections;[50] a spokesman of the ministry said that Israeli officials were "very worried about the rise to power of people who promote hatred, Holocaust denial, and befriend Neo-Nazis. We see it as a disturbing development and are following the matter very closely."[51]
As far as they're concerned, Ukrainians might as well be lice. If the Germans Russians want to wipe them out, more power to them.

Maybe it's just residual Austrian longing for its most famous hometown hero - Adolf Hitler. It's reliving Germany's military exploits through Russia.

There's an amusing anecdote about how Austrians and Germans are each always trying to claim Beethoven for themselves while foisting Hitler on the other. In Austria's case, the latter might just be for show.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2022-06-21 01:42||   2022-06-21 01:42|| Front Page Top

#7 Where's the evidence that modern Russia has the industrial capacity of WWI Germany?
Posted by Rob Crawford 2022-06-21 07:52||   2022-06-21 07:52|| Front Page Top

#8 So many lies. The Ukrainians sent to Luhansk are just civilians in uniforms. They're cannon fodder, they know it and they're refusing to fight.
"We are soldiers of the 8th battalion of the 10th brigade, based near the city of Seversk. We appeal to you, Mr. President, Mr. Zaluzhny, and to the Ukrainian people [...] We demand the immediate rotation of our remaining troops; physically and mentally there are no more forces"

Posted by Cramp Grumble6086 2022-06-21 11:28||   2022-06-21 11:28|| Front Page Top

#9 What do they mean by "already underway"? This battle has been going on for weeks now.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2022-06-21 11:55||   2022-06-21 11:55|| Front Page Top

#10  Where's the evidence that modern Russia has the industrial capacity of WWI Germany?

I can't find any stats that would allow a comparison of modern Russia to WWI Germany, but relatively recent stats put Russia's manufacturing output at below Mexico and slightly ahead of Indonesia and Brazil. We tend to think of WW2 and the mighty Russian army sending hordes of T-34's and T-85's against the invading Germans. Those Russians are gone, and so is that manufacturing capacity. Where did it go? Look at the yachts and villas of the oligarchs and siloviki.
Posted by Matt 2022-06-21 13:12||   2022-06-21 13:12|| Front Page Top

#11 ^ and spent on troll farms, apparently, cheap ones.
Posted by Frank G 2022-06-21 14:21||   2022-06-21 14:21|| Front Page Top

#12 Zhang Fei has earnt a reputation here at Rantburg as a calm, fact-based thinker with areas of deep knowledge, Mr, Palmerston. I don’t always agree with him, but I always take his non-snark seriously.

ZF, with regard to Colonel Reisner — about whom I have no opinion — it seems to me that getting information only from open sources is not objectionable when deeper insight and understanding are applied, as we try to do here at [OSINT aggregator] Rantburg. That the gentleman’s track record of predictions is less than stellar does, however, merit future skepticism, along with all the other reports coming out of or about that part of the world.

Fog of war and smog of propaganda both wreathe thick in the air there. I only hope a year or two after the final documents are signed the air will clear enough to see what actually happened.
Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-21 18:18||   2022-06-21 18:18|| Front Page Top

#13 /\ Difficult to analyze remotely via Open Source (OS) reporting. Somewhere, someone is monitoring a 'Common Operating Picture (COP) of the battlespace.

It's a tactical chess game. Commanders must continually (24x7) monitor events and movements in order to anticipate enemy intent and development Course of Action (COA) to defeat that intent.

Actions on the ground generally take place entirely to fast for Open Source reporting to track and report events which might enable the exploitation of tactical opportunities.

OS certainly has a role, but other real-time intelligence collection and monitoring "All Source" platforms (SIGINT, HUMINT, IMAGERY, etc) must be utilized to achieve success.

"All Source" (as opposed to single source) reporting enables the fusion and validation of intelligence data which provides for an accurate COP.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-21 18:52||   2022-06-21 18:52|| Front Page Top

#14 "earnt"?

I thought this was a place for native English speakers. What the hell is "earnt"?
Posted by Sonny Shinegum6770 2022-06-21 22:23||   2022-06-21 22:23|| Front Page Top

#15  "earnt"?

I do apologise. Both my parents learnt British English as an Nth language before coming to America as adults, (4th language for my mother, 8th or 9th for Daddy) and I grew up exposed to both versions as well as other languages. The old hands here are used to it, both the American ones and those in and of other lands.

I thought this was a place for native English speakers.

For English speakers, yes. But clearly being a native English speaker — of any English dialect — is not required. How could it be? And why would we want to — look how our discussions are enlivened by commentary clearly based abroad.
Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-21 22:59||   2022-06-21 22:59|| Front Page Top

#16 Col. Doug MacGregor's interview today with Andrew Napolitano. Truly astonishing how foolish the whole US-UK establishment are. Listen to the whole thing.

Posted by Palmerston 2022-06-21 23:16||   2022-06-21 23:16|| Front Page Top

23:33 Spats White3102
23:16 Palmerston
23:00 Matt
22:59 trailing wife
22:49 DooDahMan
22:41 trailing wife
22:23 Sonny Shinegum6770
22:18 Spats White3102
22:13 Spats White3102
21:50 Silentbrick
21:10 Spats White3102
21:06 Spats White3102
20:52 KBK
20:46 Frank G
20:43 Frank G
20:41 Spats White3102
20:00 KBK
19:48 Moonbeam Mcswine
19:10 NoMoreBS
18:55 swksvolFF
18:52 Besoeker
18:44 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
18:18 trailing wife
17:59 Skidmark
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