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2022-01-23 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

How Ukraine is preparing for the invasion

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Posted by badanov 2022-01-23 00:00|| || Front Page|| [9 views ] Top

#1 I think one of the things that we see going on now with Russia in Ukraine is that Russia is a country with great martial traditions – even the Revolution did not completely break those traditions. There were European countries (e.g. Prussia) that also had martial traditions but these were largely broken while the Russian ones have survived. So Russia is the last remaining country in Europe that sees war as diplomacy by other means. Combined with the Chinese and the Persian hankering for the glory years of yore, when their armies swept all before them, I expect the next few decades to be rife with headlines of (hopefully) distant battles.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2022-01-23 01:02|| 2022-01-23 01:02|| Front Page Top

#2 I don't expect any military action until after the Nord Stream pipeline is in operation.

Once that happens, Russia can cut off the pipeline through the Ukraine and probably get some concession of some kind, either a slice of territory near the existing russia influenced zones or an acknowledgement of autonomy for those zones or both.

I don't know how much natural gas storage Ukraine has but I doubt it is more than a few weeks worth and after that they are in a lot of trouble.

Posted by Lord Garth 2022-01-23 09:25|| 2022-01-23 09:25|| Front Page Top

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