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2021-07-14 Afghanistan
Ghani: Security Situation Will Improve in 3 Months
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Posted by trailing wife 2021-07-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views ]  Top
 File under: Taliban 

#1 That's some funny shit right there...
Posted by Raj 2021-07-14 00:31||   2021-07-14 00:31|| Front Page Top

#2 That's some funny shit right there...

I suspect he's completely right. Journalists have dusted off their Saigon 1975 template and are just filling in the blanks. Heck, maybe the Taliban is operating based on the Saigon 1975 template based on a hope and a prayer. What they're missing is that they're not equipped like North Vietnam was in 1975. My guess is that in 3 *years*, journos will be reporting the same kinds of things they're reporting today. Could direct Pakistani intervention, with uniformed Pakistani army units jumping in, tip the scales? Sure. Heck, Biden might even try to cover it up. But the idea that these Taliban raids constitute control - I'm skeptical.

Remember that attack on the Florida disco that killed 50? All it took was one man. If there were tens of thousands of Taliban in Florida, they could have killed hundreds of thousands of people. For weeks, they could probably credibly say they hold Florida, as the authorities try to take back all the places where they're holed up without killing all the civilians taken hostage. It's Taliban bluster - an ancient technique hoping to stampede their adversaries into surrendering. I think they'll have a tough time winning. We've just pumped too much equipment into Afghanistan - and all the provincial leaders are battle-tested mujahideen who have engaged in large-scale corruption precisely for this situation - so they don't have to rely on a balky central government for supplies when the Taliban comes calling. Far better to have your own private army (aka militia) than to rely on the government's.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-07-14 20:31||   2021-07-14 20:31|| Front Page Top

#3 ^ Hope you're right, Robert
Posted by Frank G 2021-07-14 21:08||   2021-07-14 21:08|| Front Page Top

#4 ^ Hope you're right, Robert

I don't think they're fighting for honor. They're fighting for their lives. The quick way to end the Taliban would have been to slaughter the Pashtuns and push them into Pakistan. The problem is what happens when we leave and the Pakistanis send the Pashtuns back over the border, this time with Pakistani regulars backing them up. Pakistan has 200m people. Afghanistan has 40m. Anyhow, Strategypage suggests that the Taliban are staging what amounts to a Mazar-e-Sharif-style pogrom:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Mazar-i-Sharif_(1997%E2%80%9398)#Recapture_and_massacre_(August_1998)

Excerpt from Strategypage:

https://strategypage.com/qnd/afghan/articles/20210706.aspx

So far this year civilian deaths are up 40 percent compared to 2020. Most of the increase comes from the Taliban policy of killing non-Pushtun civilians while offering Pushtun civilians the option of surrendering without violence. This is the custom in Afghanistan and characterized the unfinished civil war that ended in 2001 when the Americans intervened on the side of the largely non-Pushtun Northern Alliance. The Taliban are confident it will be different this time, because they hmore drug money and access to Pakistan for illegal import items and access to the outside world.

I respect Strategypage, but disagree that Taliban drug money can match Uncle Sam's $400m a month. Not to mention the huge amounts of cached equipment and ammo that are the fruits of 20 years of salting away by each of the provincial warlords. We talk about corruption like it's this great evil.

In Afghanistan, if you're not corrupt, you're the patsy. When push comes to shove, you'll be pushed off the podium because you have no army of your own and no weaponry. Don't think of these people as citizens in a nation state where the government gives everyone a fair shake.

Think of these warlords as barons under King John. When he comes for you, you'd better have a big enough army to kick his ass back to where he came from, because he will take everything you own unless you stop him.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-07-14 23:10||   2021-07-14 23:10|| Front Page Top

#5 

Your trip'n man...what ever your on I want some...you got anymore to share...your wife is beautiful...she got a sister...Like dude this is the 21st Century...there is no government/military autonomy..the world is being run by committees of the rich...and its all good...$ is just flow'n in...no need to push the toons anywhere...for what...and upset their military industrial complex ?
Posted by Shershitgum Scotch5285 2021-07-14 23:44||   2021-07-14 23:44|| Front Page Top

23:44 Shershitgum Scotch5285
23:10 Zhang Fei
22:50 Woodrow
22:34 SteveS
21:58 Lord Garth
21:13 CrazyFool
21:08 Frank G
21:02 Lord Garth
20:56 SteveS
20:51 Bubba Lover of the Faeries8843
20:44 Frank G
20:43 Frank G
20:41 Ann Ruthersquank9708
20:31 Chris
20:31 Zhang Fei
20:19 Anomalous Sources
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20:13 swksvolFF
19:57 Zhang Fei
19:57 Procopius2k
19:56 Bangkok Billy
19:55 Procopius2k
19:44 Frank G
19:44 Gomez Squank9708









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