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2021-07-02 Afghanistan

Taliban Attack Pushed Back in Herat: Governor

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Posted by trailing wife 2021-07-02 00:00|| || Front Page|| [12 views ] Top
File under: Taliban

#1 Taliban say they 'welcome and support' the exit of foreign forces after final US and NATO troops leave Bagram airbase while the terror group sweeps across Afghanistan

Posted by Skidmark 2021-07-02 08:59|| 2021-07-02 08:59|| Front Page Top

#2 Bagram: Last US and Nato forces leave key Afghanistan base

Posted by Skidmark 2021-07-02 09:18|| 2021-07-02 09:18|| Front Page Top

“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” ~ Mark Twain.

Posted by Besoeker 2021-07-02 09:20|| 2021-07-02 09:20|| Front Page Top

#4 Besoeker: “History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” ~ Mark Twain.

The Taliban are presumably looking at Vietnam and their earlier conquest of Afghanistan as the template for their current offensives. Vietnam is a bad analogy. The Soviets and the Chinese sent huge amounts of equipment and dough to North Vietnam to launch a tank-, artillery- and MiG-supported offensive. Pakistan is a (literally) poor substitute as lead moneybags for the Taliban. Note also that the US had drastically cut equipment and monetary aid to South Vietnam. Whereas Biden has committed $5b a year, the same amount the Afghans have gotten for many years now.

Even the 90's era Taliban victory is an imperfect analogue. Then, the Taliban were backed to the hilt by Pakistan. In comparison, the various mujahideen factions they were up against got bupkis from anyone else, having to rely on the usual protection money and shady undertakings that all had to engage in due to the chaos (banditry, destroyed infrastructure, refugees everywhere) of that era.

As long as Uncle Sam is funding the Afghan government, it's hard to see how it could lose. A guerrilla movement can hold territory for days or even weeks at a time, much as a bank robber can probably take over any financial institution at will and take hostages to keep the gendarmes at bay. But to hold out for years - that takes staying power the Taliban does not have.

My estimate is that if the Taliban continues to mount operations at this tempo, it will overextend itself and implode. This could actually the Taliban's last gasp - the storm before the calm.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-07-02 16:31|| 2021-07-02 16:31|| Front Page Top

#5 /\ Very interesting assessment Zhang Fei, and one that I had not heard or imagined. I hope you are correct.

Posted by Besoeker 2021-07-02 16:35|| 2021-07-02 16:35|| Front Page Top

#6 The fly in the ointment is the Afghan propensity to change sides. Lots of gov troops with lots of equipment and ammo available for the right price or threat.

Posted by Thraviling Thromons4323 2021-07-02 17:21|| 2021-07-02 17:21|| Front Page Top

#7 Besoeker: /\ Very interesting assessment Zhang Fei, and one that I had not heard or imagined. I hope you are correct.

Zhang: Your attachment had to be removed due to size restrictions. Sorry. Thanks again for your insights.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-07-02 17:51|| 2021-07-02 17:51|| Front Page Top

#8 The fly in the ointment is the Afghan propensity to change sides. Lots of gov troops with lots of equipment and ammo available for the right price or threat.

They don't change sides for money. They change sides so they end up with the winners. Because money's no good if you end up with the losers - that could mean exile for your tribe, or worse. They're not switching sides for keeps - if the government appears to be winning, they'll stick with it - if the Taliban looks like a winner, they'll switch. This can happen several times in the course of a given period. This isn't a matter of principle - it's a question of who lives and who dies, so tribal heads will be endlessly flexible. Ultimately, they'll side with the strong horse, whatever that horse happens to be.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-07-02 17:59|| 2021-07-02 17:59|| Front Page Top

#9 Mods: Your attachment had to be removed due to size restrictions. Sorry. Thanks again for your insights.

Given that I spent 20 minutes trying to get that table to fit in there... Anyway, have a great 4th.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2021-07-02 18:18|| 2021-07-02 18:18|| Front Page Top

#10 Sorry ZF: Next time attach it as a link.

Posted by Besoeker 2021-07-02 18:20|| 2021-07-02 18:20|| Front Page Top

#11 "When the people see a strong horse and a weak horse, they will support the strong horse"
ObL PBHBM*

*praised be His Blessed Memory

Posted by Zebulon Poodle2734 2021-07-02 18:33|| 2021-07-02 18:33|| Front Page Top

#12 $5 billion per of hard working Americans taxes? Bah. They should get nothing and like it.

Posted by Judge Smailes 2021-07-02 18:49|| 2021-07-02 18:49|| Front Page Top

#13 Give em three cups of tea & tell em to fuck off

Posted by Hupoluse Jesing3050 2021-07-02 19:00|| 2021-07-02 19:00|| Front Page Top

#14 As long as Uncle Sam is funding the Afghan government, it's hard to see how it could lose.

No matter who wins, Uncle Sam wins itself another well equipped sunni sponsor of terrorism. This one I'm betting won't focus on Asia as much as the last one they propped up.

Posted by Dron66046 2021-07-02 23:50|| 2021-07-02 23:50|| Front Page Top

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