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2020-07-25 Home Front: Politix
Is Kamala Harris A Possible Betting Arbitrage Opportunity?
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Posted by Raj 2020-07-25 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [6484 views ]  Top

#1 I would love to understand how Ladbrokes calculates those odds. Separately, where on earth did they get the list of Democratic vice presidential possibilities? I haven’t heard of most of them.
Posted by trailing wife 2020-07-25 08:26||   2020-07-25 08:26|| Front Page Top

#2 Ahahahahah ahahahhaha

Mitt Romney?

Posted by Frank G 2020-07-25 08:32||   2020-07-25 08:32|| Front Page Top

#3 tw - in general bookmakers will change odds to insure the bets (in dollar amounts) are a 50 / 50% split between two teams in the simplified case. Don't know the details for three or more contests but the odds will change depending on someone coming in with a big bet in order to entice someone to go the other way with an opposing bet.
Posted by Raj 2020-07-25 09:42||   2020-07-25 09:42|| Front Page Top

#4 If you were to try to arbitrage the betting markets you'd have to find an enormous discrepancy between two sets of bookmakers - this occurred during mid- to late 2012, when the smart (London-based) money bet on Obama and the stupid (US-based) money was betting on Romney.

Something like that might be opening up soon. Dumb money thinks Biden has this in the bag. Smart money will soon start betting on Trump.
Posted by Lumpy Mussolini7603 2020-07-25 10:33||   2020-07-25 10:33|| Front Page Top

#5  tw - in general bookmakers will change odds to insure the bets (in dollar amounts) are a 50 / 50% split between two teams in the simplified case.

That makes sense as a business model, Raj, but clearly I’ll never work in the industry. My mind doesn’t work that way.
Posted by trailing wife 2020-07-25 23:19||   2020-07-25 23:19|| Front Page Top

23:28 trailing wife
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