Article

2020-07-25 Home Front: Politix

Is Kamala Harris A Possible Betting Arbitrage Opportunity?

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Raj 2020-07-25 00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 I would love to understand how Ladbrokes calculates those odds. Separately, where on earth did they get the list of Democratic vice presidential possibilities? I haven’t heard of most of them.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-07-25 08:26|| 2020-07-25 08:26|| Front Page Top

#2 Ahahahahah ahahahhaha

Mitt Romney?

Hahahahhahah

Posted by Frank G 2020-07-25 08:32|| 2020-07-25 08:32|| Front Page Top

#3 tw - in general bookmakers will change odds to insure the bets (in dollar amounts) are a 50 / 50% split between two teams in the simplified case. Don't know the details for three or more contests but the odds will change depending on someone coming in with a big bet in order to entice someone to go the other way with an opposing bet.

Posted by Raj 2020-07-25 09:42|| 2020-07-25 09:42|| Front Page Top

#4 If you were to try to arbitrage the betting markets you'd have to find an enormous discrepancy between two sets of bookmakers - this occurred during mid- to late 2012, when the smart (London-based) money bet on Obama and the stupid (US-based) money was betting on Romney.

Something like that might be opening up soon. Dumb money thinks Biden has this in the bag. Smart money will soon start betting on Trump.

Posted by Lumpy Mussolini7603 2020-07-25 10:33|| 2020-07-25 10:33|| Front Page Top

#5 tw - in general bookmakers will change odds to insure the bets (in dollar amounts) are a 50 / 50% split between two teams in the simplified case.

That makes sense as a business model, Raj, but clearly I’ll never work in the industry. My mind doesn’t work that way.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-07-25 23:19|| 2020-07-25 23:19|| Front Page Top

23:28 trailing wife
23:19 trailing wife
23:05 trailing wife
22:23 swksvolFF
22:20 SteveS
21:51 Deacon Blues
20:12 Lumpy Mussolini7603
20:10 Lumpy Mussolini7603
19:58 Airandee
19:49 Beavis
19:13 Mercutio
19:10 gorb
18:55 Clem
18:52 Clem
18:39 Matt
18:17 Ebbomoger Speaking for Boskone4589
18:10 Ebbomoger Speaking for Boskone4589
18:00 magpie
17:56 Whiskey Mike
17:53 Frank G
17:51 Spater Slaque5391
17:42 Silentbrick
17:41 jpal
17:41 Silentbrick