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2020-05-29 Home Front: Politix
Stock Market Tells the Tale: Trump Set to Win in November
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Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-29 01:40|| || Front Page|| [6 views ]  Top

#1 Not bad for a completely destroyed (for nothing) economy?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 02:53||   2020-05-29 02:53|| Front Page Top

#2 Las Vegas 2020 Presidential Winner Odds:
Bovada. BetOnline. SportsBetting AG
Donald Trump -120
Joe Biden +120
Andrew Cuomo +6000
Hillary Clinton +2500
Mike Pence +9500
Michelle Obama +5000
Nikki Haley +20000

Posted by b 2020-05-29 07:46||   2020-05-29 07:46|| Front Page Top

#3 Just seeing Killer Cuomo's name makes me sick.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-29 08:03||   2020-05-29 08:03|| Front Page Top

#4 Give it a rest, g. The stock market's up because so many companies' prices were beaten down to near-bankruptcy levels due to the hysterical over-reaction / lockdowns.

Certain historically well-managed consumer discretionary companies that are now hemorrhaging cash are attractively priced and attracting smart money: they're priced as if they'll go bankrupt when in reality they are nearly certain to survive because their cash + federal support gives them 18 months or more of life. In the meantime, while the market resets, millions will continue to be out of work, millions of children will have had their educational prospects blighted or ruined, and of course, as we have already begun to see, there will be at least as many deaths of despair as deaths actually attributable to COVID.

Here's yet one more tragic consequence of this hysterical foolishness: California hospitals are now in the surreal situation where they are actually laying off thousands and facing bankruptcy - all because of the retarded shutdowns that prevented them from treating patients while expecting a surge of COVID patients that never even came close to materializing. Reuters:

...the predicted surge never came.

And the cost of all that preparation - setting up field hospitals, doubling the number of intensive care rooms, purchasing protective equipment - dealt a blow to hospital bottom lines, while the ban on all non-emergency procedures cut revenues in half.

The measures drove hospitals in the most populous U.S. state close to bankruptcy, costing them as much as $14 billion and forcing them to lay off thousands of health care workers
Posted by Lex 2020-05-29 08:05||   2020-05-29 08:05|| Front Page Top

#5 Lex, Lex, at least stop and think before you gush.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 08:09||   2020-05-29 08:09|| Front Page Top

#6 #12 As regards predicting the election, Trump has to be huge favorite to win.

Allen Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" is the best the predictive model we have. Here's what it indicates for November:

If any FIVE or FEWER of these "keys" are FALSE, then the incumbent is almost certain to be re-elected:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE - 1

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE -2

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Neutral

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE - the current festivities will blow over and be off the headlines within 2 weeks at most

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Neutral

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE - 3

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE

= total of 3 False, vs. 6 False required if Biden is to be predicted the winner.

Not even close. The only things that could derail Trump's re-election -- and there would have to be two or more of these - are a complete economic collapse in Q3 plus either "sustained social unrest" OR war with China. Probability of two or more of these is next to zero.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-29 08:19||   2020-05-29 08:19|| Front Page Top

#7 Grom, why don't you take a breather? Maybe a trip north?

Stockholm's lovely this time of year. No Nipponese schoolgirls, true, but Nordic lasses a-plenty for a traveling ladies' man.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-29 08:21||   2020-05-29 08:21|| Front Page Top

#8 My correspondent from planet Baja California seems offended by something I said. Well, aliens, you can't really understand them.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 08:33||   2020-05-29 08:33|| Front Page Top

#9 Ref #7 & #8: End it please gents.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-05-29 08:36||   2020-05-29 08:36|| Front Page Top

#10 ^ add Ref #5, the shot across the bow
Posted by Lex 2020-05-29 08:40||   2020-05-29 08:40|| Front Page Top

#11 ðŸ˜Ž
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 08:46||   2020-05-29 08:46|| Front Page Top

#12 #7

Sweden's borders are closed.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-05-29 09:30||   2020-05-29 09:30|| Front Page Top

#13 I keep hearing hospitals are laying off, but my wife works at two of the big hospital chains in San Diego and neither (Scripps and Kaiser) is laying off as far as I can tell. They had a large number of contractors who got limited hours as the thing ramped up but who are being hired again as they shift back to normal.

Maybe LA, or other hospital chains in SD were hit bad but it really seems over-blown from my viewpoint.
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-29 09:45||   2020-05-29 09:45|| Front Page Top

#14 "12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE - 3"

I actually think this should be marked TRUE. Depends on how you define charismatic is guess..
Posted by Warthog 2020-05-29 09:57||   2020-05-29 09:57|| Front Page Top

#15 Sweden's borders are closed

Exact opposite of the actions you'd expect of people believing in their own herd immunity.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-29 10:43||   2020-05-29 10:43|| Front Page Top

23:53 Clem
23:27 Skidmark
23:08 Chris
23:03 Vernal Hatrick
22:55 trailing wife
22:50 SteveS
22:44 trailing wife
22:22 Besoeker
22:19 SteveS
22:05 Besoeker
22:02 Lex
22:00 SteveS
21:58 Lex
21:57 trailing wife
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20:36 bbrewer126
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19:56 Lex









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