Article

2020-05-21 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2020-05-21 00:00|| || Front Page|| [9 views ] Top

#1 Only 1% of Danes have virus antibodies

They had 1920/M = 0.2% so for every registered CV19 case we have 5 asymptomatic.
Their Swinish neighbors had 3424/M = 0.3424% ==> 1.7% immune (maybe).
Herd immunity requires 90% immune.
Yet "people" criticize Neil Ferguson for pulling numbers from his ass!

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-21 01:21|| 2020-05-21 01:21|| Front Page Top

#2 Coronavirus: Global cases surpass 5 million, South American cases rising

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-21 01:40|| 2020-05-21 01:40|| Front Page Top

#3 Step aside, Pomade Boy:
State approves San Diego County reopening plan that includes in-person dining, retail

Posted by Frank G 2020-05-21 06:57|| 2020-05-21 06:57|| Front Page Top

#4 Ferguson did pull numbers from his ~~arse~~ random number generator until he got one he liked.

Utterly discredited.

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-05-21 07:45|| 2020-05-21 07:45|| Front Page Top

#5 Iran says 10,000 of its health workers infected with coronavirus

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-21 07:50|| 2020-05-21 07:50|| Front Page Top

#6 German virologist Hendrick Streeck talked about this "surface" matter weeks or months ago, even on door handles, etc. Nice to see the CDC kinda-sorta get with the program. Finally.

Posted by Clem 2020-05-21 08:16|| 2020-05-21 08:16|| Front Page Top

#7 This Neil Ferguson wanker is an absolute joke. And he evidently has a bit of a history. It's disgusting.

Posted by Clem 2020-05-21 08:18|| 2020-05-21 08:18|| Front Page Top

#8 The March 16 report by Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson is credited (or blamed) with causing the U.K. to lock down and contributing to the domino effect of global lockdowns. The model has since come under intense criticism for being “totally unreliable and a buggy mess.”

This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2005 predicted 200 million could die from the bird flu. Total deaths over the last 15 years turned out to be 455. This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2009 predicted that 65,000 people could die in the U.K. from the swine flu. The final number ended up around 392. Now, in 2020, he predicted that 500,000 British would die from coronavirus.

His deeply flawed model led the United States to fear over 2 million deaths and was used to justify locking down nearly the entire nation. Dr. Ferguson is a character of Shakespearean drama and tragedy. His March 17 presentation to British elites on the dire need to take action ironically may have infected Boris Johnson and other top British officials, as Mr. Ferguson himself tested positive for COVID-19 two days later. Then in May he resigned in disgrace after he broke his own quarantine rules to meet clandestinely with a married woman. [Excerpt from a Zero Hedge post]

Posted by Clem 2020-05-21 22:23|| 2020-05-21 22:23|| Front Page Top

#9 g(r)omgoru, you are wrong.

Herd immunity starts having an effect depending on the R0 value. Its not a stark line, its a gradient. Herd Immunity Threshold is not that difficult an equation.

R = infectivity
p = proportion of the population that shows immune by infection recovered or by vaccination
pc is the HIT

R0 x (1 - p) = 1
so Pc = 1 - 1 /R0

For an R0 of 2, herd immunity shows up at about 50%.

To achieve an HIT of 90% the R0 has to be 10 or more. Do the math.

Right now, best estimates based on current models (which may very well be garbage due tio garbage data) is about 5.7, so for herd immunity to become a factor, you need a HIT of about 82%

Feel free to look up the equations yourself.

Posted by Marilyn Tojo7566 2020-05-21 23:24|| 2020-05-21 23:24|| Front Page Top

23:43 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:41 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:37 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:35 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:27 Clem
23:27 Clem
23:26 Clem
23:26 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:24 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:17 trailing wife
23:10 JohnQC
23:07 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:02 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:01 Marilyn Tojo7566
23:00 Marilyn Tojo7566
22:27 Clem
22:23 Clem
22:01 Thimp Clusort2035
20:53 Glenmore
20:23 bbrewer126
20:20 Thing From Snowy Mountain
19:53 swksvolFF
19:40 Dale
19:39 Procopius2k