Article

2020-03-12 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

President Trump suspends travel between US and Europe for 30 days amid coronavirus outbreak

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2020-03-12 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [336090 views ] Top

A man wears a Trump yarmulke while waiting for U.S. President Donald Trump to address the Republican Jewish Coalition 2019 Annual Leadership Meeting in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., April 6, 2019.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-12 02:25|| 2020-03-12 02:25|| Front Page Top

#2 I expected the travel ban. It's basically useless though. I'm pretty sure the U.S. numbers are MUCH higher than reported. You haven't really tested a lot of people yet.

Germany currently tests up to 12,000 people A DAY.

Also it's (probably) wrong to blame the rise in the U.S. on the EU not closing its borders to China fast enough. Let me explain.

Germany had the first cases in Europe (Chinese origin) in January, but they were contained and all infected then have been cured.

The real outbreak started in Italy, but most likely in late December, when thousands of Chinese (many from Wuhan) visited Milan and Venice. This was before the virus became known.

This way Italy had an early start. The virus could spread before anybody knew what was going on. In January, only three cases could be traced back to Chinese, the rest was local infections. While borders weren't closed to Chinese yet, almost no Chinese traveled to Europe anyway. Munich gets a lot of Chinese tourists, too, but I didn't see a single Chinese in January or February. The shops catering to Chinese tourists all closed in January because of no customers.

Do you think the U.S. had no Chinese visitors in December? You probably had fatalities early, too, but you didn't attribute them to the new virus. After all, old folks catch pneumonia easily.

Why are Italy's death rates so high?

1) Overwhelmed hospitals
2) Aging population
3) An alarmingly high antimicrobial resistance, which leads to deadly secondary bacterial infections.

Btw to exempt the UK from the ban doesn't make sense. The UK is just a few days behind the curve.

The lethality rate in Germany is currently very low. Only 3 people have died in Germany yet. The numbers will rise but we won't get to the 3,4 percent.

The German university hospital Charité developed the first test against the coronavirus mid January. Politicians should have responded more aggressively. Taiwan's approach seems to have been the best one.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-12 02:27|| 2020-03-12 02:27|| Front Page Top

#3 /\ An interesting perspective.

Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-12 02:30|| 2020-03-12 02:30|| Front Page Top

#4 The only way to contain the virus was in China, and in December.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-12 02:32|| 2020-03-12 02:32|| Front Page Top

#5 ha! Take that, Yurp

Posted by Rex Mundi 2020-03-12 02:45|| 2020-03-12 02:45|| Front Page Top

#6 Coronavirus is an opportunity to make some, long needed, changes in "The World Without Borders".

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-12 02:47|| 2020-03-12 02:47|| Front Page Top

#7 We don't have a world without borders. A virus can't be stopped by borders. Only early detection, openness and rapid response helps.

Dictatorial countries like China can implement radical measures, but usually too late. They wasted precious time by silencing brave doctors.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-12 02:53|| 2020-03-12 02:53|| Front Page Top

#8 ^Dr Grom views Third World mentalities now flooding Yurp as a disease a 100 times worse than some virus.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-12 03:12|| 2020-03-12 03:12|| Front Page Top

#9 ^^The only thing worse that third world tribal is "liberal" mentality of EUropean "elites".

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-12 03:26|| 2020-03-12 03:26|| Front Page Top

#10 Outside of China, it looks like all you need to do is close churches and stop evangelicals from taking missionary trips abroad. Those appear to be becoming a bigger menace than food markets.

Posted by Beau 2020-03-12 05:03|| 2020-03-12 05:03|| Front Page Top

#11 Everybody get real. I was in Beijing (late January, as they began to close down the city), and in Chongqing in the 6 weeks since then - where they once had around 560 infections, but now less than 20. I never even took an aspirin. About the only medicinal thing I did was drink too much. You really have to beg for this disease if you want it ... which does leave me a bit confused about Tom Hanks and his wife. WTF have they been doing in their social life?

Posted by Beau 2020-03-12 08:31|| 2020-03-12 08:31|| Front Page Top

#12 /\ Glad to see you home safe Beau. Would enjoy seeing your posts each day for say, the next two to three weeks or so. Don't be a stranger.

Seriously, thanks for the update.

Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-12 08:40|| 2020-03-12 08:40|| Front Page Top

#13 Tough on the Service folks deployed for the canceled wargames.

Posted by Skidmark 2020-03-12 10:08|| 2020-03-12 10:08|| Front Page Top

#14 Although European Conservative makes excellent points especially about the virus being all over before we knew it. But viruses mutate and additional strains complicate things and could make it harder to figure the thing out. Anything that would simplify at this point is a good thing.

So trump blaming the EU as he did was over the top, but the policies are probably not that bad and could be loosened up with less harm than being added later.

Posted by rjschwarz 2020-03-12 10:50|| 2020-03-12 10:50|| Front Page Top

#15 A few observations:

1. This is vastly overblown, like a Category 1 hurricane being called Katrina Squared. A large part of the hysteria is NeverTrumperism, desperately hoping that panic will cause us to ... elect Joe Biden, a hair-sniffing, corrupt and doddering mediocrity who is only winning elections--for the first time in three tries stretching over four decades-- because his opponents are Shitshow Clowns.

2. Global travel from infected regions is obviously the key factor in the magnitude and duration of the infection curve. Shut down such travel, and the curve flattens.

3. When the curve flattens, we buy time-- sufficient time to enhance treatment, distribute kits, develop and test a vaccine.

4. With the above measures accelerating, the phenomenon will reverse, and the marginal rate of infection will be negative. That is, panic will subside and confidence will be restored.

5. The above cycle will happen much faster than our media idiots expect. Markets will recover all they're losses and then some.

6. A few export-import firms that have poor access to capital and depend crucially on China will go under, and others will take a temporary hit to profits, but the economy will recover quickly and Trump will be re-elected.

Posted by Lex 2020-03-12 11:40|| 2020-03-12 11:40|| Front Page Top

#16 * their losses

Posted by Lex 2020-03-12 11:41|| 2020-03-12 11:41|| Front Page Top

#17 All the restriction is doing is flattening the infection curve, giving our medical system time and space so it isn't completely overwhelmed.

Posted by DarthVader 2020-03-12 11:53|| 2020-03-12 11:53|| Front Page Top

#18 From my foxhole it is pretty simple. We can all sit here and say its overblown. At this moment it is. The smart folks have to look at the real infection and morbidity rates, not the WHO number-look how they do the math. They have to look at the infrastructure ability to support an epidemic in a major city. And then come up with a plan to slow roll the virus into the US. Limiting all travel through a check point is smart business. BTW, the EU flight closures was not the first, just the most emotional. He did not blame the EU, he stated the truth. They did not protect their citizens in a timely manner. The proof is in Germany and Italy. Trump does not want that to be our fate. Lots of criticism of trump in this thread. NOT ONE SOLUTION. Give solutions... I'm listening...

Posted by 49 Pan 2020-03-12 11:55|| 2020-03-12 11:55|| Front Page Top

#19 and in Chongqing in the 6 weeks since then - where they once had around 560 infections, but now less than 20.

What was the source of those numbers B?

Posted by Woodrow 2020-03-12 12:30|| 2020-03-12 12:30|| Front Page Top

#20 I take a dim view of news outlets, but last night I was impressed with the program aired by KING5 in Seattle. They presented the reasoning for limiting the large public gatherings in a way that was easily understood by the public that showed controlling the spread of the disease so as not to overwhelm the available medical facilities. The shorter steep curve of people getting the disease vs the smaller but longer curve that stayed under the number of available medical facilities to avoid overwhelming them.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2020-03-12 12:45|| 2020-03-12 12:45|| Front Page Top

#21 IMHO, the President should have put the UK on the 30 day suspension, on an action of caution.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2020-03-12 12:48|| 2020-03-12 12:48|| Front Page Top

#22 ^ Concur.

Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-03-12 13:39|| 2020-03-12 13:39|| Front Page Top

#23 I expected the travel ban. It's basically useless though.

Perhaps, but can you imagine the Democrat bitching and moaning if he didn't?

And I'd bet dollars to donuts that Baraq would have been a lot slower to implement a travel ban with China, if he ever did. But MSM would not have said "boo" about it.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-03-12 14:07|| 2020-03-12 14:07|| Front Page Top

#24 And all the bitching and moaning about test kits. Does anyone seriously believe that production is not running at max capacity?

Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-03-12 14:15|| 2020-03-12 14:15|| Front Page Top

#25 There are those among our political and corporate elites who believe it is acceptable to risk national security and public health for the profits to be gained by outsourcing all of our manufacturing to China. They want us all to pretend that China is not an aggressive and hostile totalitarian dictatorship. Now we are seeing but one of the results of this policy. Did coronavirus originate from bat soup or is it a bioweapon? If it was a bioweapon, did it escape the lab accidentally or was it released with malicious intent? Who outside of China knows for sure? Did they mean to kill millions of people and disrupt our economy or were they just sloppy or was it both? I think we can never know with any certainty what all of the ramifications of such folly will be. Hopefully this is just a wake up call.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-03-12 14:51|| 2020-03-12 14:51|| Front Page Top

#26 #10 Outside of China, it looks like all you need to do is close churches and stop evangelicals from taking missionary trips abroad. Beau

Every situation presents the little anti-Christs an opportunity to go on a rampage against the Christian community. Missionaries stay for very long periods in very remote areas. Whereas airline pilots and crew, ship captains and crew, military personel, business people, illegal aliens, political ambassadors and their staff, exchange students, etc etc etc etc transition in far greater numbers on a daily basis. But the pitifull little hater anti-Christ has to bellow and blow about the Christian churches in any situation if possible.

Posted by Varmint Splat1454 2020-03-12 14:53|| 2020-03-12 14:53|| Front Page Top

#27 ^How did Milwaukee fight off Spanish flu? It closed churches and schools But not saloons..

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-12 14:58|| 2020-03-12 14:58|| Front Page Top

#28 I'm pretty sure the U.S. numbers are MUCH higher than reported. You haven't really tested a lot of people yet.

Almost everyone who wants a test has not yet got it, I understand. But that should be fixed in the next week or two, at which time our numbers will explode, an explosion much trumpeted by the media.

Do you think the U.S. had no Chinese visitors in December?

Probably more of our own immigrant citizens went to China for the New Year celebrations, then came home.

Btw to exempt the UK from the ban doesn't make sense. The UK is just a few days behind the curve.

Agreed. And that will probably happen, just more quietly. The exemption, I suspect, was a reward for electing Boris Johnson.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-03-12 15:07|| 2020-03-12 15:07|| Front Page Top

#29 LOL, I seriously got asked at work today if I could go to the UK, to Aberdeen Scotland and train some people out on a rig there.

Posted by Silentbrick 2020-03-12 19:42|| 2020-03-12 19:42|| Front Page Top

#30 grom supports alcholism as the solution.

Posted by Varmint Splat1454 2020-03-12 20:30|| 2020-03-12 20:30|| Front Page Top

#31 grom supports alcholism as the solution.

Wasn't that a plot point in The Andromeda Strain? An old geezer who was immune due to his... let's call it a heightened consumption of Sterno.

Posted by SteveS 2020-03-12 21:07|| 2020-03-12 21:07|| Front Page Top

#32 Seems to be working in Iran.

Posted by bbrewer126 2020-03-12 21:38|| 2020-03-12 21:38|| Front Page Top

#33 Let me explain why the travel ban absolutely makes no sense. I'm sticking to Germany for easier calculating.

As of today, Germany has about 2100 cases. Due to lagging behind in testing, it can be safely assumed that the number of infected Americans is more than three or four times as high and we have about the same percentages of infected people in the U.S. and Germany. We'll see whether this holds up in a week or so (of course the numbers will have risen in both countries). But this doesn't matter, the equation doesn't change.

What matters is that roughly the same number of Americans visit Germany as Germans visit the U.S. Germans are not allowed to visit the U.S. for the next 30 days. Americans currently are not barred from visiting Germany, but almost no American will travel now if he has to face quarantine when reentering the U.S.

So you have no German infecting people in the U.S.

BUT

This number is offset by Americans visiting Germany, because during his time abroad, an infected American can't infect people in the U.S.

While the positive effect of the travel ban may not be zero for the U.S., it is absolutely minimal. The economic damage instead is enormous.

If you take the numbers of the whole Schengen area, the whole thing tilts towards the U.S. a little bit more, but not by much, as Italians, who run up the numbers and percentages, are not allowed to travel anyway and Americans can't come to Italy currently.

That's why the whole thing is pointless.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-12 21:43|| 2020-03-12 21:43|| Front Page Top

#34 I might add the whole thing is pointless because within a week very few Europeans will be inclined (or allowed) to travel anyway.

Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-12 23:03|| 2020-03-12 23:03|| Front Page Top

23:58 Old Patriot
23:55 Lex
23:10 European Conservative
23:03 European Conservative
23:02 Vernal Charong4674
22:23 trailing wife
22:22 Lex
22:22 Lex
21:43 European Conservative
21:38 bbrewer126
21:20 DarthVader
21:19 DarthVader
21:17 Alistaire Tingle9882
21:07 SteveS
21:05 Frank G
21:02 European Conservative
20:59 magpie
20:50 Procopius2k
20:40 Cluling Jease4650
20:36 Anomalous Sources
20:30 Varmint Splat1454
20:18 European Conservative
20:18 Frank G
20:17 Frank G