Article

2010-09-22 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Debkafile: Ahmadinejad, Assad Agreed to Back Hizbullah 'Coup'

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2010-09-22 00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Syria

#1 Come to think of it, if this were the case, I don't think that Israel *would* intervene, at least directly. Then they would give arms to all against Hizbullah, but only on condition that if they win, they drive Hizbullah, and all the Shiites, into Syria.

If they did that, then Israel would act to prevent any Syrian invasion of Lebanon. But only if the country would permanently forbid any Shiites from entering.

This would throw a wrench into the works. The Sunni nations would be all in favor of this. The Syrians would have a large number of unemployed and restless Shiites, and the Iranians would be out what could have been a valuable proxy.

Posted by Anonymoose 2010-09-22 09:12|| 2010-09-22 09:12|| Front Page Top

#2 If Hizb'allah formally took over the government, whether by coup or otherwise, it wouldn't be long before they openly went to war against Israel. This time the rubble bouncing would not be as carefully targetted to only Shiite areas, I suspect. (See map here).

Posted by trailing wife 2010-09-22 11:57|| 2010-09-22 11:57|| Front Page Top

#3 Actually, tw, it might be more carefully targeted, particularly to the extent the IDF considers it a definitive battle. If Debka is remotely accurate in this report, Lebanon's secondary problem would be the IDF, the primary problem would be the civil war, which I'm sure the IDF would be interested in.

And, alas, yet another opportunity for the Turks to mess up their foreign policy.

Posted by Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2010-09-22 12:19|| 2010-09-22 12:19|| Front Page Top

#4 Actually, tw, it might be more carefully targeted

I'm sure you have more knowledge of military matters than I, Haliburton(etc.). But do you really think the rest of the Lebanese would be able to coordinate their efforts? They've pretty much done nothing except talk, up 'til now.

Posted by trailing wife 2010-09-22 12:29|| 2010-09-22 12:29|| Front Page Top

#5 Not at all. But as Churchill said, jaw jaw jaw is better than war war war, and if they stop talking there's no predicting what will happen.

I wouldn't want to give the IDF a second chance at anything, which seems to be where this article is pointing.

Oh - and I have far less knowledge of military matters than any of the regular posters here. More than Aris, perhaps, but that's about it.

Posted by Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2010-09-22 13:11|| 2010-09-22 13:11|| Front Page Top

#6 That puts you ahead of me, my dear. Most of what I know I learnt by reading here.

Posted by trailing wife 2010-09-22 15:15|| 2010-09-22 15:15|| Front Page Top

#7 t.w.,thanks for the map that can't be read.

Posted by Spearong Prince of the Bunions9034 2010-09-22 21:12|| 2010-09-22 21:12|| Front Page Top

#8 I could read it.

But I failed 'Sarcasm 101'. So you're one up on me.

Posted by Pappy 2010-09-22 21:28|| 2010-09-22 21:28|| Front Page Top

#9 Gee, I could read it too, Spearong - and I've got really poor eyesight.

Maybe you need new glasses? (or just need glasses if you don't wear them now)

Posted by Barbara Skolaut 2010-09-22 21:44|| 2010-09-22 21:44|| Front Page Top

23:55 Uleger Barnsmell4617
23:52 KBK
23:49 tipover
23:41 gorb
23:32 Shieldwolf
23:30 bman
23:02 Rectangle4321
22:53 Rectangle4321
22:47 Rectangle4321
22:46 gorb
22:31 Mikw
22:30 linker
22:21 linker
21:50 Barbara Skolaut
21:48 Barbara Skolaut
21:44 Barbara Skolaut
21:43 Pappy
21:28 Pappy
21:24 Pappy
21:19 Spearong Prince of the Bunions9034
21:12 Spearong Prince of the Bunions9034
21:05 49 Pan
21:05 Uleger Barnsmell4617
20:57 49 Pan