Article

2010-06-02 Europe

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Mike 2010-06-02 10:04|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 as near as I can tell, two things happened:

* Turkey used to have a large number of refugees from the Former Soviet Union, some of them dating back to the civil war that started the thing. Those guys knew what the real existential threat was, and didn't let themselves get distracted. Those adults are now gone, and their grandkids missed something on the road to maturity. This doesn't explain the difference between 2007 and now, but it does between 1960 and now. Also, with the fall of the SU, they probably don't think they have an existential threat.

* Oh, and we've given Saudi Arabia enough money over the years to buy massive influence in the Turkish political process in many ways, and they used it that way.

Unfortunately noone ever had to write an environmental impact statement for giving the Saudis that sort of money.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2010-06-02 10:19|| 2010-06-02 10:19|| Front Page Top

#2 also see Islam

Posted by chris 2010-06-02 11:07|| 2010-06-02 11:07|| Front Page Top

#3 What happened to the Turks? Hell, what happened to the Americans? You can talk about Erdogan all you want but, for my money, Obama is far more dangerous.

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2010-06-02 11:56|| 2010-06-02 11:56|| Front Page Top

#4 Different government + a changed external environment = perceived new opportunities to the east and fewer opportunities to the west. Turkey sees no upside from either the EU or NATO and tremendous upside from the mideast power vacuum created by Saddam's departure and Iran's rise. There's no cost to defying the US on Iran (or, in 2003, on Iraq), and much to be gained from bashing Israel.

Similar calculations are being made now by the Russians especially, also the Brazilians. India will be put in the same spot eventually as well.

The damage now being engendered by Obama's weakness is deep and will haunt us for a long time.

Posted by lex 2010-06-02 12:21|| 2010-06-02 12:21|| Front Page Top

#5 Turkey sponsored the flotilla as they are repositioning themselves to be the next leaders of Islam or the new Caliphate.
Erdogan has been visibly aiming that way since he prevented the 4th ID from completion of its part in the Iraq invasion.
When he saw no entry into the EU and then EU "PIGS", which are in better shape than Turkey, being forced out he knew it would be a cold day in hell before Turkey made it into the EU.

So now Caliphate II looks attractive.

The dice look too exciting to Islamist Erdogan not to throw.

Posted by 3dc 2010-06-02 12:26|| 2010-06-02 12:26|| Front Page Top

#6 Ok, here is my two cents worth on this subject. First, I agree completely that Turkey firmly believes they are a better class of Muslim than the Arabs or Persians. They also long to be the Muslim world leader, back to their glory days and they still hold the EU and the Christian West in contempt. I think their strategy is pretty transparent.
Iran is the current Muslim world leader. Like it or not, they come to the defense of all Muslims around the world, Bosnia, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, you name it, Iran is supporting the Jihad with money, arms and advisors. Bin Laden may be the face of AQ, but he is just the puppet. Iran does all the Saber rattling with the West and is poised to be nuclear, which will help solidify them as the Muslim leader of the world.
The US and the rest of the West is showing weakness diplomatically, economically, and militarily. The West is, however, fairly united against Iran, hobbled by cowards and ineffective leaders, but still the West sees Iran as a growing threat. If ever a Muslim nation was to stand up to be the new leader of everything Islam before Iran holds all the cards, now is the time. I think Turkey is going to make larger steps in this direction.
So why did they support the flotilla? They want to be seen by the East that they alone are standing up to the Israel for the people of Gaza. This was a giant PR event that is going great in the Middle East. Everything Iran does is covert, Egypt is closing its borders, Turkey to the rescue. They knew the world would cry out in ignorant sympathy the flotilla. My guess is in the next step Turkey will demand to be allowed to take relief supplies under the eye of the UN to Gaza. Played in the Eastern media as Turkey takes on the JOOS and wins for the people of Gaza while the rest of the Muzzie world sits idle. This stunt will get them credibility in both the West and the East. A hand well played. Obama, will remain silent. He will not speak out against Turkey, he is after all a Muslim and will not say a bad word. He will also remain fairly silent over Israel, he is on thin ice for snubbing Israel and his Jewish base is wavering. He will jump all over a UN resolution for supervised relief efforts.
The interesting thing will be with Hammas and Lebanon. I wonder how they plan on getting control of Hammas or how they plan on moving Hammas out of control. I suspect they will engineer Iran into a near war with Turkey and the Muslim world will see Turkey as moderate and unifying, most of the Islamic countries will side with Turkey. The soddies, UAE, Jordan, and most other Muzzie countries see Iran as destabilizing and a greater threat. They are tired as we are of the wars and want to stabilize and sell oil to their drug addict infidels in the West. Turkey gaining political dominance will be more acceptable and supported. Syria and Iran will be isolated as rogue in the Islamic world.

Posted by 49 Pan 2010-06-02 12:32|| 2010-06-02 12:32|| Front Page Top

#7 Any Turkish government, secular or islamist, military-led or civilian-led, would respond as Erdogan's government has done-- just as any Russian government would seek to expand its influence in the middle east and eastern Europe.

Bottom line is that aspiring regional hegemons are no longer restrained by either the Cold War or by lack of cash-- Russia has a surplus of some half a TRILLION-- and are determined to throw their weight around in their backyards.

Here's a smart take on Erdogan's government:

Foreign Minister Davutoglu is the man responsible for the country's new international activism. Bookish, soft-spoken and extremely smart, Davutoglu is not an Islamist. Rather, he correctly perceived the role Turkey can play in a much-changed world. The structural changes resulting from the end of the Cold War, Europe's continuing rebuff of Turkey, and the economic opportunities to the country's south, east, and north have driven Davutoglu's thinking, not the Quran. Moreover, despite the bitter political battle being played out in Turkey over the country's political trajectory, there is general agreement across the political spectrum on the direction of Turkish foreign policy. Other Turkish governments might have been more cautious about the TRR deal, but they certainly would be seeking to maintain good relations with Iran, Iraq, and Syria, not to mention Russia.

Posted by lex 2010-06-02 12:51|| 2010-06-02 12:51|| Front Page Top

#8 The current gov't is Islamic. Their major concern is that the Turkish military, which under Attaturk's reforms, are required to keep the government secular, will rise up against them. A number of arrests and charges over the past year were aimed at heading off such a coup. The gov't is particularly annoyed at the military for their close ties with Israeli military. In providing a Turkish ship and sacrificial pawns, they have managed to paint the military into a corner with respect to a) their ties with Israel and b) any attempt on the gov't. I think the Turkish gov't helped set up this scenario.

Posted by Ulemble Grundy4547 2010-06-02 13:43|| 2010-06-02 13:43|| Front Page Top

#9 could be looking for Ottoman Empire 2

Posted by chris 2010-06-02 14:26|| 2010-06-02 14:26|| Front Page Top

#10 Back a few years ago (I think the late 1990s), Turkey itself investigated and exposed and prosecuted the arab terrorist orgs operating there.

Now, Turkey works actively with those same terrorist orgs.

That's the Islamist difference.

Posted by lord garth 2010-06-02 14:31|| 2010-06-02 14:31|| Front Page Top

#11 The gov't is particularly annoyed at the military for their close ties with Israeli military

Maybe so, but the pro-arab, anti-Israeli foreign policy is said to be wildly popular with the Turkish population. If so, then a successor military government would have great difficulty returning to its former pattern of close cooperation with Israel.

IOW, the Turkish-Israeli partnership is finished. Turkey's now the big dog in the eastern mediterranean.

We'd damned well better elect a foreign policy president in 2012-- not another lefty one-worlder but also not a right-wing looney-tarian isolationist type.

The world's getting a lot more complex, in a hurry, and in ways that aren't to our advantage.

Posted by lex 2010-06-02 14:54|| 2010-06-02 14:54|| Front Page Top

#12 What happened in Turkey since 2007?

The islamicists have out manouvered the secular Atturkists.

More generally, democracy is only liberal in predominately secular societies or societies where church and state are separated.

And I agree with the comments that Turkey is now looking East rather than West. They see themselves as defenders of the Turkic peoples who are spread across central Asia to and across the Chinese border (the Uighiurs). Add nostalgia for the glory days of the Ottoman Empire and the whole Caliphate thing of radical muslims.

The West no longer needs Turkey to contain the Soviet Union and Israel doesn't really need them either.

Tying Turkey to the West and Nato was always a marriage of convenience which neither party now wants or needs.

Posted by phil_b 2010-06-02 15:09|| 2010-06-02 15:09|| Front Page Top

#13 Turkey is now looking East rather than West.

This is going to be true for not just the islamist Turks but also the Turkish military.

Look at it from the Turkish generals' POV. What does NATO offer the Turkish military? Protection? Against whom, the Greeks? AYFKM?

But the middle east is now an open field for ambitious Turkish leaders who care about extending Turkey's influence in the world.

Any Turkish politician leader from here on out will no longer to Washington or to Europe, which can neither help them nor hinder them much, and will look eastward to realize Turkey's destiny.

Posted by lex 2010-06-02 15:17|| 2010-06-02 15:17|| Front Page Top

#14 On the other hand, people, who'd want to bet Turkey suddenly won't have lots more trouble with Kurds?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2010-06-02 16:01|| 2010-06-02 16:01|| Front Page Top

#15 Ataturk must be rolling over in his ~~grave~~ giant tomb to see these superstitious throwbacks back in charge.

See also Kemalism

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2010-06-02 16:10|| 2010-06-02 16:10|| Front Page Top

#16 Turk islamists want to takeover Arab mind simple as that. They want power of Otoman Empire back.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA14Ak01.html

Posted by Phosing Big Foot3926 2010-06-02 17:12|| 2010-06-02 17:12|| Front Page Top

#17 They couldn't resist exploiting the West's provocative weakness.

What really surprised me about the American response to 9/11 was that the entire American political class, both moderate "New Democrats" and an ostensibly hawkish Republican administration seemed to abandon the principle of deterrence.

There was a military response; and that response initially yielded some desirable results, but there was not even an element of retribution.

Indeed, the US took active steps to avoid the impression of a punitive intent towards anyone by renaming the military operation. "Infinite Justice" was transformed into neutral "Enduring Freedom".

The official rationale for the Afghanistan war is that we (NATO) are there to protect and to serve our allies, the Afghan people. We are there to facilitate their reconciliation with the Taliban, and rebuild their country with our blood and treasure.

There is no intent anywhere to punish anyone, any party for 9/11.

If the response to the organizers of a 21st century Pearl Harbor is a therapeutic intervention, then why should anyone fear the consequences of lesser provocations vs the West?

This is what I believe the Turks, and other potential unfriendlies (Argentina/Falklands!) are basing their calculations on.

Posted by Deadeye Glavising1094 2010-06-02 17:38|| 2010-06-02 17:38|| Front Page Top

#18 2010 Russia-Turkey-Iran Troika...
Stand-by for a regulation "reality check". (See link below).

http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/extras/moscow_ascending_how_turkey_s_new_axis_with_russia_affects_us_interests_20100423_5249/

Posted by Asymmetrical 2010-06-02 21:33|| 2010-06-02 21:33|| Front Page Top

23:53 gorb
23:35 gorb
23:35 Redneck Jim
23:30 M. Murcek
23:27 Redneck Jim
23:26 JosephMendiola
23:22 JosephMendiola
23:18 JosephMendiola
23:11 crosspatch
23:10 crosspatch
23:06 gorb
23:01 OldSpook
22:33 European Conservative
22:30 M. Murcek
22:30 phil_b
22:24 phil_b
22:19 JosephMendiola
22:08 Frank G
22:05 M. Murcek
22:03 M. Murcek
22:02 JosephMendiola
21:59 trailing wife
21:53 JosephMendiola
21:49 lord garth