Article

2009-10-02 Arabia

Al-Qaeda focused on Yemen as launchpad: US

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Posted by Fred 2009-10-02 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top
File under: al-Qaeda in Arabia

#1 It is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Key points to watch are SAADA, JAA Farism and Shafei
The Zaydism in the north / Shapeists
The Sufi influence from Qutar
The Sayidist - (Saudi)

War in assist of border security (Libyan influence)

Marktoob

To corrall the gulf of Aden is the plan, using Yemen and Somalia as the staging areas as well as Sudan is their jackpot.

Yemen is the pay dirt for AlQ now as they have been forced out of almost every other country.
This is our new war abrewin Men.

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-02 01:28|| 2009-10-02 01:28|| Front Page Top

#2 P.S. Losts of pirated ships are stored in the ports of Southern Yemen. Though their activities have been mostly directed out of Somalia.

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-02 01:29|| 2009-10-02 01:29|| Front Page Top

#3 Would you be so kind as to expand on your first post, newc? It sounds like the outline of a Rantburg lecture. :-)

Posted by trailing wife 2009-10-02 08:26|| 2009-10-02 08:26|| Front Page Top

#4 I could be wrong, but it was wargamed this way:

Iran is one of 3 operatives. They have design on the gulf for control over saudi oil among other things.

Saudi arabia has traditionally had more influence in Yemen, but as in Sudan, the country is split Sunni and Shia. Ergo both Saudi Arabia and Iran (Hezbollah) have stake in what goes on there.

Al Qeada is also in the AO. They are working as the Takfirists. Yemen and Sudan gives them control of the gulf region.

If Iran wins, they block Saudi oil.
If Saudi wins, things remain the same.
If Al Qeada wins, They try to use it to topple the Saudi Arabian government by starving them of their exports and imports in Jeddah. Direct influence over Mecca.

Yemen is probablyh the most ripe place for Al-Q to run to. Their next pick is Sudan. With this, they control a pretty hefty slice of the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-02 10:54|| 2009-10-02 10:54|| Front Page Top

#5 Kinda makes Afghanistan look like a dusty outpost in the middle of nowhere.

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2009-10-02 11:43|| 2009-10-02 11:43|| Front Page Top

#6 Thank you, newc. Much there to ponder. I can't see us invading Yemen, which really should be Saudi Arabia's lookout, much as Waziristan is Pakistan's. So perhaps the Navy can quietly pick up some Predator work, given that the Air Force is busy shooting at things in the Af-Pak arena?

Posted by trailing wife 2009-10-02 13:29|| 2009-10-02 13:29|| Front Page Top

#7 I think we are tapped out on those operations, other than having the US Navy to continue running interference against the pirates.

This should be more of an Intelligence and proxy endeavor.
It's a real complicated area with many different actors. It was months ago when I read up on it, trying to get ahead of the curve, yet I have to dig up my documentation on it to be of any further help.

Posted by newc">newc 2009-10-02 14:25|| 2009-10-02 14:25|| Front Page Top

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