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2009-06-16 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Maybe Everything You Know About Iran Is Right After All

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Posted by Mike 2009-06-16 10:26|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 theres factions in the regime, and there are outsiders who use those factions, and are used by them. Khameni is leader of one "hardline" faction, and Rafsanjani is of one "pragmatic" (NOT moderate) faction. Khameni plucked dinnerjacket as a weapon against Rafsanjani, which is why a layperson without ties to the Ayatollahs is so important to most of them. rafsan, OTOH, is using Mousavi and his wife, and they are using the teheran students, etc - these latter are NOT pro-Rafsan, they are antiregime, but they know its safer to attack the election results than the regime, and if Khameni gives in, the whole clerical regime is weakened anyway.

Divisions in the ruling class certainly matter - NOT between dinnerjacked and khameni - the notion that they werent aligned looks increasingly foolish - what matters is what support does the Rafsan/moussavi faction have within the administraion, especially in the army.

If the crowds overwhelm the baseeji - not impossible - the regime will presumably send in the Pasdaran. IF the army wants to be done with the Pasdaran, that would be their moment.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-16 11:52|| 2009-06-16 11:52|| Front Page Top

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