Article

2008-08-11 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

WSJ: President of Georgia writes on the conflict

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Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-11 02:37|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ] Top

#1 First order of business, the former soviet now free states should put together an alliance. The foundation of the alliance is that all had tasted soviet hegemony, and that all have chosen not to accept it ever again. The self organizing nature of such an alliance sends a powerful message to russia whose newly emerged identity is one of kgb controlling oil for a select number of oligarchs. The russia of today is the same as the russia of yesterday, only the titles have changed and the apparatus of the state shifted. Russia's population of 150 million, the combined populations of freed states born out of soviet block disintegration is near that number.

russia has no identity left from the bloc days, because its former cohorts have truly seen the inside of the soviet mind and rejected that which flows there from.

Let the independent states recognize that russia would assume its same hegemony and control over each and every one of the free states if it could. Accept the fact that russia can craft a strategem for reenwing its hegemony one state at a time.....so the most logical message is the free state alliance of all former russian occupied territories. Brigade level forces should be assembled and attached by each state to the purpose of reclaiming Georgias soverengity.

Behind that backdrop, the newly arranged allinace would provide the world a signal that russian hegemony will be stopped.

Posted by Spiny Gl 2511 2008-08-11 08:31|| 2008-08-11 08:31|| Front Page Top

#2 the central asian states mainly arent free, or are too geographically isolated to defy Moscow. Belarus isnt free. Armenia is happy to have Moscow on its side vs Azerbaijan. The Balts are happy to be in NATO, and arent going to endanger themselves by reaching out to Georgia (with more than words, and maybe very quiet help) unless the rest of NATO goes along. That leaves Ukraine and the Azeris. The Azeris, with a conflict with Armenia, and a hostile border with Iran, are already overstretched.

That leaves basically a Ukraine-Georgia alliance.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-11 09:50|| 2008-08-11 09:50|| Front Page Top

#3 The U.S. must go in and confront Russia.

Posted by Odlanier 2008-08-11 10:54|| 2008-08-11 10:54|| Front Page Top

#4 S. Ossetia has a SDP of less than about $20M and fewer than 100,000 people. If not for the fact that some of its citizens (about a third) are ethnically Georgian, it would be essentially worthless to (asian) Georgia.

The Caspian pipeline is well south of the S. Ossetia border.

Posted by mhw">mhw 2008-08-11 11:39|| http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/]">[http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-11 11:39|| Front Page Top

#5 Oh yeah, great idea, let's start World War IV while we have a substantial amount of our military in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Cheez.

The Georgians brought a lot of this on themselves. They forgot which weight class they ordinarily compete in and now it's costing them. I have no love for the Russians but the Georgians have provoked them rather seriously, and this is what happens occasionally when you pull on the tiger's tail.

Posted by Steve White 2008-08-11 11:37|| 2008-08-11 11:37|| Front Page Top

#6 Small, independent nations provoke the Russians by simply existing.

Posted by mrp 2008-08-11 11:43|| 2008-08-11 11:43|| Front Page Top

#7 oh cmon, now, Steve, all evidence is that the Russians were escalating the Ossetian situtiaon political and militarily for weeks. And its still not clear to me who went in to S Ossetia first. And again, S ossetia IS sover Georgian territory, and the idea that a Georgian attempt to change the status quo there, IF that is what happened, is a provocation, is a concession to the Putin view of the world. Again, much evidence (including in russias own statements) is that they were provoked by Saal's attempt to join the West, and by his overthrow of their puppet. Need I remind you that Putin has been putting the econommic squeeze on them for some time?

They know they cant win in S Ossetia militarily. What they THOUGHT is that Putin would be afraid to come after them cause of the West. Putin is testing the West here, and if he wins we will hear no end of it. If we wanted to toss Georgia under the bus cause of the "correlation of forces" the time to do that was in 2003, not now. But we were happy to take their help in Iraq - did we not think they wanted a quid pro quo?

Anyway, we dont have to start WW4 (shouldnt that be 5, BTW, isnt the war on Terror WW4?) We managed to help teh afghans without starting a WW. The Russians are selling antiair assets to Iran.

We can send the Georgians antiair assets. We can offer Ukraine NATO membership (as OS suggests). We can toss the USS, oops, Russia, from the G8. In general we can start playing a lot tougher.

hell, even the French are now sending humanitarian aid to Georgia as we speak. Not much, maybe, but better than hanging around making excuses for the Russians.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-11 11:51|| 2008-08-11 11:51|| Front Page Top

#8 I hope that French "humanitarian aid" includes some Exocets. Certainly would love to see the Russians pay for their blockade...

Posted by Rob Crawford">Rob Crawford 2008-08-11 13:22|| 2008-08-11 13:22|| Front Page Top

#9 Steve, I'd be with you on this, except that Putin has now escalted by invading Georgia proper - far beyond the original provocation. THey have cut the major E-W road and gonve far ourside SO in significant force. They are also blckading the coast - andother step far beyond the SO conflict.

Russia now appears to be aiming at a complete destruction fo a democratic wester-oriented democracy, and imposing a dictatr that they appoint.

THAT is unacceptable, and it had huge ramifications throuight the formore soviet vassal states.

TO not oppose it, or not take significant actions against Russia now to impose harsh consequences, woudl be bascially to open the gates for Putin and his ultra-nationalist expansionist imperalist ambitions. In many ways, this mirros Hitler and has desrie to inflame national passions to retake "Greater Germany".

So do we stop this "Hitler" at his "Sudeten", or do we allow him to continue his conquests and intimidations to continue until we arrive at a position where we must fight him world-wide again?

Action now can prevent a larger return to the cold war, and possibly even a hot one, between the largest nuclear armed nations.

So either we assassinate Putin, or we act to stop him - and act in such a way that we preclude his most important and desired re-conquests: The Ukraine and Byelorus.

We shoudl also actively supply and support Georgian rebels and guerillas in the event of a complete occupation of Georgia by the gangster's troops. Turn it into a min-afghanistan, introduce them tothe IED, EFP, and (on Russian soil) exploding pipelines.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-11 13:34|| 2008-08-11 13:34|| Front Page Top

#10 This is just one more of the messess created by a simple phrase "Self Determination".

A simple phrase but not so simple a concept. What you get is a high sounding gloss over the oldest tribalism. This is nothing more or less than the latest tribal war just like the Balkans and the MidEast and most of the rest of the world over time.

There are various "sweetners" added to the mix like religion or economics or water but it still all comes down to the same old same old.

Russia is just playing bully boy for it own reasons in a tribal feud among the Caucasus tribes.

Georgia was on the path to a pluralistic society of 21st century type but they tried to overcome the tribalism too quickly.

Posted by AlanC 2008-08-11 16:01|| 2008-08-11 16:01|| Front Page Top

#11 I don't know about that last bit, OldSpook, but I agree with the rest.

Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife 2008-08-11 16:07|| 2008-08-11 16:07|| Front Page Top

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