Article

2008-04-15 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

California in for a devastating quake within 30 years

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Posted by Steve White 2008-04-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 OTOH, BLOGGER > argues that the recent "Earthquake Swarm" off OREGON, iff proven to be linked to San Andreas activity, may actually DELAY California's "Big One" as the Oregon swarm can also potentially work to ALLEVIATE PRESSURE/ENERGY???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-04-15 00:23|| 2008-04-15 00:23|| Front Page Top

#2 I worked for USGS in earthquake research in the early 1970s. We were measuring regional movements across the San Andreas Fault of about 30 mm/year.

At Roberta Drive in Woodside, across the San Andreas fault trace there was an old redwood stump that straddled the fault line of the 1906 earthquake. The west side of the stump was 12-ft further north than the east side of the stump.

Applying freshman logic, the time interval to the next earthquake would be:

T = (12 ft x 304.8 mm/ft)/30 mm/yr = 122 years

Estimated year when Big One hits:

1906+122 = Year 2028 AD > 2012 AD, so we will never see it

QED

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2008-04-15 02:00|| 2008-04-15 02:00|| Front Page Top

#3 Stump Logic, can't argue that

at least, not gonna try...

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-04-15 07:45|| 2008-04-15 07:45|| Front Page Top

#4 A big quake in the Bay area is 'due' or near-due on a long-term statistical basis. Southern California would seem past-due. Quakes we CALL big, like the one that messed up the World Series in Oakland and the one outside LA in ?1994 were an order of magnitude less than the devastating ones that seem to have a frequency of 100-250 years. We do not know the hour or the day (or year), but we can be very sure it is coming.

Posted by Menhadden Snogum6713 2008-04-15 08:07|| 2008-04-15 08:07|| Front Page Top

#5 Predicting quakes now, are we?

Statistics, boys. Doesn't say what WILL happen, says what MIGHT happen, with probabilities. Odds, basically.

California is a good bet for a quake (gee!) and has been for a long time. But holding your breath is probably unwise.

Posted by Chief Running Gag">Chief Running Gag 2008-04-15 10:41|| 2008-04-15 10:41|| Front Page Top

#6 Are they talking about a physical, geologic quake or an economic one as their economy circles the toilet with the liberals pushing it down with the plunger as hard as they can?

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2008-04-15 10:44|| 2008-04-15 10:44|| Front Page Top

#7 Quakes although potentially dangerous are just momentary events, it's volcanoes that can screw us badly.
And, I love the thirty year window. Just about everything will happen within thirty years.

Posted by wxjames 2008-04-15 12:01|| 2008-04-15 12:01|| Front Page Top

#8 Everyone knows that as AGW heats the planet the crust expands and cracks.

Posted by Al Gore 2008-04-15 12:04|| 2008-04-15 12:04|| Front Page Top

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